Chase For The Sprint Cup Seed Projections (After Seven Races)
The following is a projected seeding for the 2013 Chase for the Sprint Cup. Seeding is based upon a driver’s performance thus far in the season as well as the projected performance of a driver based on their history. This is similar to most power rankings but focuses on the seeding for the Chase rather than race-to-race performance.
Apr 13, 2013; Fort Worth, TX, USA; General view of the track during the NRA 500 at Texas Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
1. Kyle Busch – 2 wins, 5 top 5s, 5 top 10s
2. Jimmie Johnson – 2 wins, 3 top 5s, 5 top 10s
3. Brad Keselowski – 4 top 5s, 6 top 10s
4. Kasey Kahne – 1 win, 3 top 5s, 4 top 10s
5. Dale Earnhardt, Jr., – 3 top 5s, 5 top 10s
6. Matt Kenseth – 1 win, 1 top 5, 3 top 10s
7. Carl Edwards – 1 win, 4 top 5s, 4 top 10s
8. Greg Biffle – 1 top 5, 4 top 10s
9. Clint Bowyer – 2 top 5s, 3 top 10s
10. Joey Logano – 2 top 5s, 2 top 10s
11. Jeff Gordon (Wild Card) – 1 top 5, 2 top 10s
12. Kevin Harvick (Wild Card) – 1 top 10
Right now, Kyle Busch is the man to beat and unless his progress in the point standings slows, he will likely be the series leader in the next race or two. In spite of his bad finish at Texas, Dale Earnhardt, Jr. stays fifth in the seed prediction based off the speed he showed Saturday night prior to the electrical issues that prematurely ended his good run.
Though they are outside of the top 10 in points, Jeff Gordon and Kevin Harvick are the two most likely to take the wild card spots at this point based on their winning pedigree in comparison to the drivers in the next category.
Just missing the cut: Paul Menard, Jamie McMurray, Aric Almirola
Each of these three drivers has the ability to sneak into the Chase but it is probable that only one driver is going to be able to do that. Top 15 finishes will keep a driver in contention but it’s top 10s and top 5s that solidify a driver in the points and unless these drivers start doing that, they will eventually be overtaken by others who are behind them in points.
Contenders or pretenders: Marcos Ambrose, Ryan Newman, Martin Truex Jr., Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.
Of these drivers, Truex is probably the most likely to make his way back into the Chase based off his near-win this past Saturday night. Ryan Newman had a solid 10th place effort at Texas but needs more of those to get back into being a serious Chase contender. Ambrose and Stenhouse also need to start running better before they fall even further behind.
Cooking gooses: Tony Stewart, Jeff Burton, Kurt Busch, Denny Hamlin
All of these drivers are more than 40 points behind 10th place, Paul Menard. The margin might be possible to close but there is also the fact that there are 11+ drivers between those listed here and 10th position in points. Kurt Busch has shown the most speed but has had costly failures that have set him back in the standings.
Tony Stewart has been off the pace nearly every race this season and it looks as though the only way he will have a chance to make the Chase is if he wins enough races and Jeff Burton looks like he’s at the end of his career. Denny Hamlin is on the worst shape since he is unable to race the next few events. There might still be a chance of him making the Chase field if he’s able to return to form quickly and win several events.