Chase For The Sprint Cup Seed Projections (After Eleven Races)
The following is a projected seeding for the 2013 Chase for the Sprint Cup. Seeding is based upon a driver’s performance thus far in the season as well as the projected performance of a driver based on their history. This is similar to most power rankings but focuses on the seeding for the Chase while also recognizing race-to-race performance.
May 11, 2013; Darlington, SC, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series drivers Kurt Busch (78) and Jimmie Johnson (48) lead the field through turn four on the final parade lap to the green flag at the start of the Bojangles Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports
1. Matt Kenseth – 3 wins, 3 top 5s, 7 top 10s
2. Jimmie Johnson – 2 wins, 6 top 5s, 8 top 10s
3. Kyle Busch – 2 wins, 5 top 5s, 6 top 10s
4. Kasey Kahne – 1 win, 4 top 5s, 5 top 10s
5. Carl Edwards – 1 win, 5 top 5s, 7 top 10s
6. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – 3 top 5s, 7 top 10s
7. Brad Keselowski – 4 top 5s, 7 top 10s
8. Clint Bowyer – 4 top 5s, 5 top 10s
9. Kevin Harvick – 1 win, 2 top 5s, 3 top 10s
10. Paul Menard – 4 top 10s
11. Jeff Gordon (Wild Card) – 2 top 5s, 3 top 10s
12. Martin Truex, Jr. (Wild Card) – 2 top 5s, 4 top 10s
After taking home his third victory of the season, Matt Kenseth appears to be the man to beat right now. However, Jimmie Johnson continues to lurk in the top five every week and very likely could win several of the upcoming races.
Kasey Kahne has shown a lot of strength the past two events only to be involved in incidents with Kyle Busch. Kahne’s luck is certain to improve and it shouldn’t be a surprise if he is able to be a big factor in the next several races.
After a good start to the year, Brad Keselowski has had several bad races in recent weeks. That likely will not continue. Kevin Harvick is rapidly recovering from early season woes to be a contender to make the Chase via the top 10 while Jeff Gordon and Martin Truex, Jr. slide into the Wild Card positions.
Just missing the cut: Aric Almirola, Greg Biffle, Jamie McMurray, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.
Aric Almirola had a disappointing 20th place finish at Darlington and cannot continue to have finishes like that if he wants to sneak into the Chase. Greg Biffle finished 13th at Darlington but continues to slide down in the standings.
Jamie McMurray’s early season run appears to be cooling off as he only managed a 16th place effort this past weekend while Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. placed 18th Saturday night.
On the fence: Ryan Newman, Kurt Busch, Joey Logano, Jeff Burton
Kurt Busch looked to be a contender for the race win in the Bojangles’ Southern 500 but the handling went away on his car. He and his team need to find a way to close the deal week after week if they hope to make the Chase. Ryan Newman placed 10th this past weekend showing signs that his Stewart-Haas Racing team might be breaking through the early season malaise.
Need to improve: Tony Stewart, Juan Pablo Montoya, David Ragan, Denny Hamlin
Tony Stewart ran in the top 10 for part of Saturday night’s race but fell to 15th at the finish. Juan Pablo Montoya scored an eighth place effort which helped him gain points on Jeff Burton who lies 20th in the standings.
Unless Front Row Motorsports makes a big improvement, it is highly unlikely that David Ragan will make the top 20 to sneak into a Wild Card spot. Denny Hamlin did what he needed to do Saturday night but needs to continue to finish well to get to 20th in points.