The 2018 Formula One driver lineups for Mercedes and Ferrari are all but set. But which drivers will end up with those teams in the 2019 season?
The 2017 Formula One season is coming to a close as just four races remain. They will be held in the United States, Mexico, Brazil and Abu Dhabi. While not everything is set in stone in terms of which drivers will be driving with which top teams next season, namely Mercedes-AMG Petronas Motorsport and Scuderia Ferrari, we pretty much know who will be where.
Mercedes’ current two drivers are three-time Formula One champion Lewis Hamilton and Valtteri Bottas, while Ferrari’s current two drivers are four-time Formula One champion Sebastian Vettel and 2007 Formula One champion Kimi Raikkonen. All of them appear to be returning to their respective teams in 2018.
It’s the 2019 driver lineups of Mercedes and Ferrari and all of the questions surrounding them that have people talking and speculating, which is exactly what this article will get into.
But let’s start with what we know, or at least what we think we know, which is which drivers will be driving for Mercedes and Ferrari in the 2018 season, as discussed above. Most of the puzzle pieces of the puzzle are already in place, while the ones that aren’t are sitting ready to click into place.
What we know for 2018
Mercedes
Lewis Hamilton
Lewis Hamilton, 32, who is in his 11th full-time Formula One season, is set to return to Mercedes in 2018 for his sixth season with the team since his current contract does not expire until after next season. He currently sits in 1st place in the drivers standings and is the favorite to win this season’s championship with eight victories through 16 races so far this season.
However, he is the lone Mercedes and Ferrari driver whose future with his team is not certain, as he has not ruled out retirement yet even though his contract is not set to expire until the end of the 2018 season. He has also yet to sign a contract extension past 2018 with Mercedes, whereas each of the other three Mercedes and Ferrari drivers have signed a contract extension of one form or another over the past few months.
Valtteri Bottas
Valtteri Bottas, 28, who is in his fifth full-time Formula One season, will return to Mercedes in 2018 on a one-year deal for his second season with the team. He currently sits in 3rd place in the drivers standings and is still mathematically eligible to win this season’s championship with two victories through 16 races so far this season, his first two career victories.
What we know for 2018
Ferrari
Sebastian Vettel
Sebastian Vettel, 30, who is in his 10th full-time Formula One season, will return to Ferrari in the 2018 season after signing a three-year extension with the team. He has driven for the team in each of the past three seasons. He currently sits in 2nd place in the drivers standings and is still mathematically eligible to win this season’s championship with four victories through 16 races so far this season.
Kimi Raikkonen
Kimi Raikkonen, 37, who is in his 15th full-time Formula One season, will return to Ferrari in 2018 on a one-year deal for his eighth season with the team and fifth in a row. He currently sits in 5th place in the drivers standings, which is the lowest position among all four Mercedes and Ferrari drivers. He has not won a race since he won at Australia in 2013, putting him on an 90-race win drought.
There was initially speculation that Raikkonen may call it quits after the 2017 season, but those rumors were seemingly put to bed when he signed that one-year deal to remain with the team in 2018 at the end of August past the halfway point of this season. At this point, it would take a miracle for him not to come back.
Which drivers could move to Mercedes or Ferrari in 2019?
With the possibility of multiple seats open at Mercedes and Ferrari in the 2019 season, this has caused a lot of speculation as to which drivers will fill those seats. This speculation has now been going on for a few months even though the start of the 2019 season is still nearly one and a half years away.
While there are certainly more than two drivers that would have a chance to move to Mercedes or Ferrari in the 2019 season should there be an open seat or seats, two drivers stand out. Those two drivers are the two current Red Bull Racing:Max Verstappen and Daniel Ricciardo.
Verstappen and Ricciardo are already widely considered the most talented drivers currently in the sport. However, Red Bull Racing has not given the the consistent speed and reliability that they need to contend for championships, and both drivers are eager to move on to greener pastures because of it.
As far as seats actually being open at Mercedes and Ferrari in 2019, that obviously remains to be seen. Mercedes and Lewis Hamilton have yet to agree to a contract extension past 2018, but it doesn’t mean it won’t happen; after all, he is still just 32 years old and is already one of the greatest drivers of all-time. Ferrari and Sebastian Vettel recently agreed to a three-year contract extension through the 2020 season, so his seat will likely not be open in 2019.
Valtteri Bottas and Kimi Raikkonen also recently agreed to one-year deals with Mercedes and Ferrari, respectively, that keep them in their current seats through the 2018 season, but no longer. That’s not to say they won’t stay longer, but it is to say that the uncertainty beyond the 2018 season is massive.
The case for Max Verstappen
Max Verstappen, 20, began driving full-time in Formula One in the 2015 season for Toro Rosso. His top finishes that season were 4th place efforts at Hungary and the United States en route to a 12th place finish in the drivers standings.
The following season, Verstappen began the year with three top 10 finishes and a retirement for Toro Rosso before he was promoted to Red Bull Racing to replace Daniil Kvyat as an 18-year-old.
In his first race driving for his new team, Verstappen won at Spain, although he definitely benefited from the first-lap crash between the drivers running in the top 2, Mercedes teammates Nico Rosberg and Lewis Hamilton.
While he did not secure a win in any of the remaining 16 races of the season, Verstappen proved that his win was no fluke, as he racked up six more podium finishes, including four 2nd place finishes, and he did so as a teenager en route to a 5th place finish in the standings.
Through 16 races so far this season, Verstappen has had seven retirements, particularly because of the lack of reliability of his car. However, he still sits in 6th in the standings with a win at Malaysia and two other podium finishes, including a 2nd place finish at Japan.
At just 20 years of age, Verstappen already has two career wins, and the future certainly looks bright for him. He is definitely deserving of a ride with either Mercedes or Ferrari in the near future.
The case for Daniel Ricciardo
Daniel Ricciardo, 28, began driving full-time in Formula One in the 2012 season for Toro Rosso just like Max Verstappen did. Ricciardo drove for the team for two full seasons, however, and finished in 18th and 14th place in the drivers standings, respectively, with top finishes of 7th place at China and Italy, both taking place in the 2013 season.
In the 2014 season, Ricciardo began driving for Red Bull Racing. He won his first three career races at Canada, Hungary and Belgium en route to a career-high 3rd place finish in the standings. He also racked up five more podium finishes in 2014, all 3rd place results.
In the 2015 season, Ricciardo finished in 8th place in the standings in 2015 with no wins and just two podium finishes, one 2nd and one 3rd place result, in what was kind of a down year for him.
Ricciardo got back on track in the 2016 season with a win at Malaysia en route to another 3rd place finish in the standings. He also racked up seven other podium finishes, including four 2nd place results.
Through 16 races so far this season, Ricciardo sits in 4th place in the standings with a win at Azerbaijan and eight other podium finishes. Even though he is already 28 years old, the future still looks bright for the five-time Formula One race winner, and he is definitely deserving of a ride with either Mercedes or Ferrari in the near future.
Projected 2019 driver lineup
Mercedes
Lewis Hamilton
Lewis Hamilton still doesn’t have a contract extension past the conclusion of the 2018 season, but at 32 years of age, there is no reason to believe he won’t get one soon. The all-time pole recordholder is one of the greatest drivers that the sport has ever seen, as he trails only Michael Schumacher in career wins (91 to 61) and is in a position to win his fourth career championship, which would then put him in a position behind only Schumacher (7 championships) and Juan Manuel Fangio (5).
While there has been speculation about Hamilton potentially retiring in the near future, you can expect him back at Mercedes in 2019. He still has a good half-decade or more left in him as far as running up at the front is concerned, and with so many more all-time records within his reach, it would make no sense for him to retire within the next two years as he continues to pursue the enviable status of the greatest Formula One driver of all-time.
Schumacher’s record seventh and final championship came when he was 35 years old in the 2004 season and his record 91st and final race victory came in the 2006 season as a 37-year-old. With Hamilton at 32 years old on the verge of winning double-digit races for the fourth straight season, something no other driver has ever even done two seasons in a row in Formula One history, he has shown no signs of slowing down and should and likely will continue racing at Mercedes because of it.
Projected 2019 driver lineup
Mercedes
Max Verstappen
Mercedes would be smart to pursue the young 20-year-old Max Verstappen to drive for the team in the 2019 season and perhaps for even more than a decade down the road as well. One thing that may prevent this from happening is the fact that Verstappen’s current contract with Red Bull Racing does not expire until the end of the 2019 season, and the team insists that there are no opt-out clauses in it despite the fact that there has been speculation otherwise.
Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff has already admitted that he wants to sign Verstappen, and for the 2019 season no less even though Verstappen reportedly has a no opt-out contract with Red Bull Racing that extends through that season according to team boss Christian Horner. While the price would be steep for Mercedes to effectively take Verstappen away from Red Bull Racing, they should and would most likely be willing to pay it seeing as how the potential payoff is massive.
The potential that Verstappen has as a Formula One driver is extremely high, and that has shown through already, especially given the fact that he won at Spain last year as an 18-year-old and won another race this season at Malaysia to prove that his first career victory was in no way, shape or form a fluke. Even though he has constantly had to deal with an unreliable race car, he has gotten the most out of it and has still performed at a high level.
Why Valtteri Bottas is not listed
Valtteri Bottas, 28, is currently in his first season as a Mercedes driver. While he has been having a career-best season, he hasn’t been nearly as successful as the other two drivers who have driven for Mercedes since the team became a dominant force in Formula One in 2014 when the the Mercedes PU106A Hybrid 1.6 V6 turbocharger engine era began.
Bottas does have two victories this season, his first two career victories, but he sits in 3rd place in the drivers standings 72 points behind points leader Lewis Hamilton with four races remaining. Since 2014, Mercedes drivers have always finished in 1st and 2nd place in the drivers standings, with Hamilton winning the championship in 2014 and 2015 and Nico Rosberg winning it in 2016. Hamilton and Rosberg never finished more than 67 points apart in the final standings.
Bottas recently signed a one-year deal to remain with the team in 2018. If Mercedes was sold on him as their clear #2 driver, he would have been signed for longer. Sure, it’s his first season with the team and he can’t expected to come in and win 10 races, and if he were to improve next season, he may be signed for longer.
Why Valtteri Bottas is not listed (continued)
However, Valtteri Bottas may not be able to drastically improve next season given the fact that Mercedes may be facing some serious problems. Here is what Lewis Hamilton had to say about the problems Mercedes looks like they may face in the 2018 season.
"“We’ve done an exceptional job with what we have. There are some really big problems which I can’t really explain to you. But we really need to make sure we rectify them for next year’s cars if we really want to fight both Ferrari and Red Bull when they step up their game.” “There is a lot of work for us to do — but there’s nothing we can do, it’s the way the car is. People have been saying all year long that we’ve got the best car. It’s a fact at some races that the car has turned out to be better but overall, globally, I think it’s worked out that we haven’t.”"
Unless Bottas does improve and assert himself as a championship contender in the 2018 season, it would be smart for Mercedes to look at Max Verstappen as his replacement in the 2019 season, which is why Bottas is not listed on the projected 2019 driver lineup for Mercedes while Hamilton and Verstappen are.
Projected 2019 driver lineup
Ferrari
Sebastian Vettel
Sebastian Vettel signed a three-year, $240 million deal with Ferrari prior to the start of the 2015 season. That deal was set to expire at the end of this season, but the 30-year-old four-time Formula One champion signed a three-year extension with the team through the 2020 season. So unless Vettel decides to retire before his contract extension is up, he will be driving for Ferrari in the 2019 season.
That said, it would not be super shocking if Vettel did end up retiring before then. After all, Nico Rosberg signed a two-year extension with Mercedes last summer before winning the 2016 Formula One championship and retiring right afterward.
Vettel is already a four-time Formula One champion, but he hasn’t won a championship since the 2013 season, and he likely won’t win one this year either even though Ferrari is as competitive if not more competitive this year than they have been at any point so far this decade. But while he has more than likely peaked, it would be a bit of a surprise if he doesn’t drive for Ferrari in the 2019 season. He is still very competitive, and after all, he did just sign that three-year extension.
Projected 2019 driver lineup
Ferrari
Daniel Ricciardo
Daniel Ricciardo was Sebastian Vettel’s teammate at Red Bull Racing back in the 2014 season. The 2014 season was Ricciardo’s first season with the team, while Vettel was aiming to win his fifth consecutive championship driving for the team dating back to 2010.
But in that 2014 season in his first season driving for the team, Ricciardo beat the four-time defending champion Vettel in the drivers standings (3rd place to 5th place) after winning three races while Vettel did not win a single race in his worst season as a Red Bull Racing driver even despite the fact that he had just won 34 races and four championships from the 2010 season through the 2013 season.
In the 2019 season, the two 2014 Red Bull Racing teammates could very well end up as teammates once again. Ricciardo is a free agent following the 2019 season, and while it is still early, Ferrari is his most likely destination. If he were to end up there, he wouldn’t be the team’s #2 driver, either. Both he and Vettel would be going all-out to win the championship, and rightfully so, as both are extremely talented and have the potential to be regular contenders out front.
Why Kimi Raikkonen is not listed
Kimi Raikkonen, 37, is the oldest driver currently driving for Mercedes or Ferrari. Since he returned to Ferrari in the 2014 season, he hasn’t won a single race. This season, he sits in 5th place in the drivers standings as the lowest Mercedes or Ferrari driver.
In fact, Raikkonen is the only Mercedes or Ferrari driver lower than a non-Mercedes or Ferrari driver in the standings. That non-Mercedes or Ferrari driver is Daniel Ricciardo, who looks like he may take over Raikkonen’s ride in the 2019 season. Raikkonen did, however, sign yet another one-year deal to remain with Ferrari through the 2018 season. He has now done so for three consecutive seasons.
But even if he doesn’t retire before the end of the 2018 season, he may not see a fourth straight one-year deal to remain with the team in the 2019 season in what would be his sixth season in a row with the team and ninth season overall.
Since returning to Ferrari in the 2014 season after leaving the team and the sport at the end of the 2009 season and returning to the sport in the 2012 season to drive for Lotus for two seasons, Raikkonen has driven in 74 races and has just 10 podium finishes with no wins.
Why Kimi Raikkonen is not listed (continued)
Kimi Raikkonen has definitely been more of a team player this season in an attempt to help his teammate Sebastian Vettel win his fifth career Formula One championship and first since he won his fourth career title and fourth title in a row back in the 2013 season driving for Red Bull Racing.
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However, even with the extra help, Vettel sits 59 points behind points leader Lewis Hamilton in the standings with just four races remaining in the 2017 season.
Ferrari would be smart to move on to a #2 driver who can actually contend for a championship himself as opposed to one who is there to help the team’s #1 driver contend for the championship that he still wouldn’t be able to capture, at least based on the looks of things this year anyway. This would make that #2 driver effectively the team’s second #1 driver.
That driver would be Daniel Ricciardo, the lone non-Mercedes or Ferrari driver who is actually ahead of Kimi Raikkonen in this year’s standings with a win of his own driving for Red Bull Racing. Ricciardo is on pace to finish in 4th place in the drivers standings this season after finishing in 3rd in two of the past three years. As far as replacing Raikkonen goes, it’s really a no-brainer.
Next: Looking back at Lewis Hamilton's record-setting accomplishment
There is certainly a lot up in the air yet regarding which drivers will be driving for which top teams in the 2019 Formula One season. Will the four drivers currently driving for Mercedes and Ferrari still be doing so in 2019, or will drivers like Max Verstappen or Daniel Ricciardo take their spots? Unfortunately, it may be over a year until those things are known for sure.