While the odds of four-time Formula 1 champion Lewis Hamilton moving from Mercedes to Ferrari are low, here is one scenario that could make it happen.
First off, today is April 2nd, 2018 — not April 1st, 2018. April Fools’ Day is over. This Formula 1 article is not an April Fools’ Day joke like our NASCAR Cup Series article about Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin retiring was yesterday, although it may seem like it at first.
There has been lots of speculation in recent years, particularly in the 2017 Formula 1 season, about four-time Formula 1 champion Lewis Hamilton potentially leaving Mercedes-AMG Petronas Motorsport to go to Scuderia Ferrari in the 2019 season.
However, it seems like every time that idea is backed by something credible, someone else shoots it down with some kind of evidence to suggest it will never happen. Both sides of this argument, however, may have some validity.
Remember, Kirk Cousins was also “never going” to the Minnesota Vikings, and Kevin Durant was “never going” to the Golden State Warriors also. Look where those scenarios ended up taking both of those star athletes.
Hamilton, 33, will likely never drive for Ferrari before he retires. He has driven a Mercedes-powered car since his Formula 1 career began in the 2007 season, and he has driven for Mercedes since the 2013 season. However, that does not mean it is impossible. In fact, “likely never” could potentially turn into just “likely” if everything in this particular scenario goes a certain way.
Current situations at Mercedes and Ferrari
Mercedes’ other driver as of Lewis Hamilton is 28-year-old Valtteri Bottas, whose first season driving for the team was the 2017 season. Ferrari’s two drivers are 30-year-old Sebastian Vettel, who began driving for the team in the 2015 season, and 38-year-old Kimi Raikkonen, who drove for the team from the 2007 season to the 2009 season before returning in the 2014 season.
Bottas was given another one-year deal to remain with Mercedes through the 2018 season last summer. Meanwhile, Vettel was extended through the 2020 season with Ferrari last summer, and Raikkonen was given another one-year deal to remain with the team through the 2018 season as well.
However, Lewis Hamilton’s three-year contract extension with Mercedes that he signed in the 2015 season is set to run out at the end of the 2018 season, and he has not gotten a new deal done yet with the team despite the fact that it has been speculated that he and the team are close to getting a deal done.
The four-time Formula 1 champion Vettel has no plans to retire anytime soon, so he will likely not be replaced by Hamilton at Ferrari at any point, leaving 2007 Formula 1 champion Raikkonen as the driver who Hamilton would replace at Ferrari if he ended up driving for the team.
The crazy but possible scenario
If Lewis Hamilton is to drive for Ferrari before his Formula 1 career comes to a close, here’s how it would likely happen. First of all, Ferrari would need to remain extremely competitive. In recent years, they have gained tons of competitiveness back to the point where they are championship contenders, so this should not be an issue.
Secondly, Ferrari finally need to part ways with Kimi Raikkonen, who is driving for the team on his third consecutive one-year deal. This will likely happen after the 2018 season, but it is not a guarantee.
Thirdly, the question is whether or not Ferrari would sign another driver as good as Sebastian Vettel to replace Raikkonen or if they would sign a drive like Raikkonen who Vettel would be prioritized over for championship purposes. Signing Hamilton would mean that they would need to commit to not prioritizing a driver in the championship hunt.
Fourthly, Ferrari would need to pass up the opportunity to sign 20-year-old Charles Leclerc as a potential replacement candidate for Raikkonen in the 2019 season. In fact, Leclerc, who is currently in his first Formula 1 season driving for Alfa Romeo Sauber, is widely rumored to be Ferrari’s second driver in the 2019 season already. This was the case even before he made his Formula 1 debut in the Australian Grand Prix.
The crazy but possible scenario (continued)
To continue from the previous slide, Charles Leclerc could effectively serve as a Kimi Raikkonen-like replacement for Raikkonen in his first few seasons driving for Ferrari if the team opted to go that route in terms of Leclerc not being a championship contender and Sebastian Vettel being prioritized over him.
Leclerc would them, however, more than likely be a championship contender for most of his career after his first few seasons driving for Ferrari. Passing him up could come back to haunt the Maranello-based team.
Sixthly, Valtteri Bottas needs to win or at least come close to winning the 2018 Formula 1 championship. At the very least, he needs to be at or above Lewis Hamilton’s point total. After an 8th place finish in the season-opening Australian Grand Prix, this is unlikely, but anything is possible.
Many people feel that Bottas, who signed only a one-year contract to remain with Mercedes in the 2018 season, is on his way out after the 2018 season as a result of the fact that he has not done nearly as well as Lewis Hamilton has driving for the sport’s top team.
Finally, at least one of 28-year-old Daniel Ricciardo, 21-year-old Esteban Ocon and 20-year-old George Russell need to convince Mercedes that they are worth the gamble of releasing Hamilton in order to sign them.
The crazy but possible scenario (continued)
To continue from the previous slide, Daniel Ricciardo can convince Mercedes that he is worth the gamble of Mercedes releasing Lewis Hamilton to sign him by having another great 2018 season driving for Aston Martin Red Bull Racing like he has in recent years.
Esteban Ocon can do that by putting together a 2018 Formula 1 season much like the one he put together last season driving for Sahara Force India, and George Russell, who test drove for both Mercedes and Force India in Formula 1 last season, can do that by putting together a strong rookie Formula 2 season driving for ART Grand Prix this year.
Many people believe that Valtteri Bottas will be replaced by Ricciardo or a young Mercedes driver such as Ocon or Russell in the 2019 season, so if Bottas performs at a higher level than Lewis Hamilton does in the 2018 season and one of Ricciardo, Ocon or Russell convinces Mercedes that they are worth the gamble of releasing Hamilton to sign them, things could get interesting as far as who Mercedes’ two drivers in the 2019 season will be.
Keep in mind the fact that Hamilton is several years older than all of these other drivers and there is a youth movement taking place in Formula 1 as we speak.
Of course, there is a chance that two of Ricciardo, Ocon and Russell could replace both Hamilton and Bottas in the 2019 season, but the likelihood of Mercedes having a completely new lineup next year is extremely small. If Hamilton is the team’s top driver once again in the 2018 season, there is no chance that he won’t be given the opportunity to sign another contract extension.
At that point, he would either re-sign or retire. Ferrari would not be an option.
Summary
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If all of these things happen discussed in the first five slides of this article take place, you can essentially expect to see Lewis Hamilton in a red firesuit driving for Ferrari before his Formula 1 career comes to a close despite the fact that all 12 seasons of his 12-year Formula 1 career so far have featured him driving a Mercedes-powered car.
However, if even one of these things don’t happen, you can pretty much forget about it, which is a perfect way of illustrating the reality that is the fact that Hamilton still has a chance to drive for Ferrari before his Formula 1 career comes to a conclusion, but there is only an extremely small chance of that happening.
To summarize, here is exactly what needs to happen for Hamilton to drive for Ferrari before his Formula 1 career reaches its end.
- Ferrari must remain extremely competitive
- Ferrari must release Kimi Raikkonen after the 2018 season
- Ferrari must commit to signing a second championship contender alongside Sebastian Vettel in the 2019 season
- Ferrari must pass up the opportunity to sign Charles Leclerc for the 2019 season
- Valtteri Bottas must beat Lewis Hamilton as the top Mercedes driver and contend for the 2018 championship
- At least one of Daniel Ricciardo, Esteban Ocon or George Russell must have a stellar 2018 season to impress Mercedes
If any of these things doesn’t completely happen, Hamilton will not drive for Ferrari before he retires.
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Could you see Lewis Hamilton driving for Ferrari before he retires from his Formula 1 career, or will he finish his career at Mercedes?