While not many NASCAR Cup Series drivers are out of contract at the end of the 2018 season, this offseason could still provide some significant driver changes.
The 2018 NASCAR Cup Series season is more than halfway over, and silly season is in full swing despite the fact that there does not look like there will be a ton of driver movement among the sport’s top six teams between the 2018 season and the 2019 season.
Among the sport’s top six teams are two teams that use Toyota cars, two teams that use Ford cars and two teams that use Chevrolet cars. The Toyota teams are Joe Gibbs Racing and Furniture Row Racing while the Ford teams are Stewart-Haas Racing and Team Penske and the Chevrolet teams are Hendrick Motorsports and Chip Ganassi Racing.
Joe Gibbs Racing, Stewart-Haas Racing and Hendrick Motorsports are all four-car teams while Team Penske are a three-car team, Chip Ganassi Racing are a two-car team and Furniture Row Racing are just a one-car team.
Which 18 (or perhaps more than 18) drivers will be driving for these six teams when the green flag waves on the 2019 season with the 61st annual Daytona 500 next February?
Here is an early look at a silly season driver lineup prediction for the 2019 season for the sport’s top six teams with 17 races remaining in the 36-race 2018 season.
Chip Ganassi Racing
Jamie McMurray is having one of his worst seasons in his 16-year NASCAR Cup Series career and his nine-year career driving the #1 Chevrolet for Chip Ganassi Racing (previously known as Earnhardt Ganassi Racing).
It appears less and less likely that McMurray will be able to secure his first victory since the 2013 season anytime soon. With that in mind, it would be a perfect time for Chip Ganassi Racing to sign either Tyler Reddick, who drove part-time for the team in the Xfinity Series last season, or John Hunter Nemechek, who currently does so.
Reddick now drives full-time for JR Motorsports in the Xfinity Series, and many people believe that he will be the eventual replacement for seven-time Cup Series champion Jimmie Johnson at Hendrick Motorsports given their affiliation with JR Motorsports.
While Nemechek has never driven full-time in the Xfinity Series and still drives part-time in the Truck Series for NEMCO Motorsports as well, Chip Ganassi Racing may want to sign the 21-year-old before he can sign with another team, especially with McMurray struggling.
While Chevrolet teams and drivers have struggled mightily so far this season, Kyle Larson has been a regular contender for race wins. While his position in the championship standings, which is ninth place, does not particularly illustrate this largely due to the fact that he has yet to win a race this year, he has been by far and away the top Chevrolet driver in the sport.
Once the Chevrolet teams figure out the new Camaros, Larson could become the favorite to win the championship. If he does not drive the #42 Chip Ganassi Racing Chevrolet next year, it would be surprising.
Furniture Row Racing
Last season, Furniture Row Racing expanded to become a two-car team for the first time in their history so that they could field an entry for rising star Erik Jones, who has since replaced Matt Kenseth in the #20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota.
With Christopher Bell in contention to win the NASCAR Xfinity Series championship driving for Joe Gibbs Racing after he won last year’s Truck Series championship driving for Kyle Busch Motorsports, it is possible that Furniture Row Racing, the team that have a technical alliance with Joe Gibbs Racing, could become a two-car team against next season to field an entry for Bell so that he can potentially replace one of Joe Gibbs Racing’s drivers, likely either Denny Hamlin or Daniel Suarez, in the 2020 or 2021 season.
Martin Truex Jr. is the reigning NASCAR Cup Series champion, and he is in contention to win his second career championship this season despite the fact that he was outperformed regularly by Stewart-Haas Racing’s Kevin Harvick and Joe Gibbs Racing’s Kyle Busch earlier this season. It would be shocking if he did not end up driving the #78 Furniture Row Racing Toyota again in 2019.
Team Penske
Brad Keselowski signed a multi-year deal with Team Penske last season to continue driving the #2 Ford for several years to come. The 2012 NASCAR Cup Series champion is currently in his ninth season driving for the team, and he is still competing at a level where he can contend for his second career championship despite the fact that he has yet to win a race this season. He sits in fifth place in the championship standings.
Ryan Blaney is in his first of what will hopefully be many seasons driving the #12 Team Penske Ford, as he signed a multi-year deal with the team before the 2018 season began. Once he can get the monkey off of his back and win a race or two, he could be a force to be reckoned with at the front of the field on a regular basis.
If that doesn’t happen this season, expect it to happen next season or, at the very latest, in the 2020 season depending on whether or not the Ford teams and drivers can have immediate success with the new Mustangs next year. Regardless, expect Blaney to drive the #12 Ford for several years to come.
Last season, Joey Logano, like Brad Keselowski, signed a multi-year deal to continue to drive for Team Penske. Logano is set to continue to drive the #22 Ford through at least the 2023 season in an attempt to secure what he was almost able to secure in the 2016 season: his first career NASCAR Cup Series championship. He has the pace to be a contender to do so this season, and he likely will for years to come.
Hendrick Motorsports
Last season, Chase Elliott signed a contract to remain with Hendrick Motorsports as the driver of the #9 Chevrolet through at least the 2022 season. While Elliott has struggled this season and still has not yet won a NASCAR Cup Series race, Chevrolet teams and drivers have struggled as a whole this season.
The fact that Elliott is still currently well on the inside of the playoff cut line goes to show that the team’s decision to give him a contract extension last season was the right one. Once the Chevrolet teams and drivers figure out the new Camaros, Elliott should be one of the regular frontrunners.
William Byron’s rookie season in the NASCAR Cup Series has not been as good as what many people expected it would be, as his only top 10 finish so far is a 10th place finish in the race at Texas Motor Speedway.
However, to think that Hendrick Motorsports would give up on the 2017 Xfinity Series champion after one season would be foolish, especially since the overwhelming majority of the other Chevrolet drivers are struggling as well. Expect the 20-year-old behind the wheel of the #24 Chevrolet again next season.
Hendrick Motorsports (continued)
Jimmie Johnson, like Chase Elliott, signed a contract last season to remain with Hendrick Motorsports through at least the 2020 season. While the driver of the #48 Chevrolet will be losing Lowe’s as his primary sponsor starting next season, meaning the team will need to find another one or several new smaller ones, he should still be back, as it should not be too big of a challenge to find a primary sponsor or sponsors for the seven-time Cup Series champion.
While Johnson has struggled this season given the struggles of the Chevrolet teams and drivers as a whole, he has still consistently been one of the best Chevrolet drivers in the field, and he is currently well on the inside of the playoff cut line.
Alex Bowman is in his first full season as the driver of the #88 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet. While he hasn’t performed at the level that his two non-rookie teammates have performed at so far this year, he is still on pace to earn his first career NASCAR Cup Series playoff berth assuming there are no upset winners throughout the remainder of the 26-race 2018 regular season. He is set to stay with the team through at least the 2019 season. There is no reason to expect that to change at this point.
Stewart-Haas Racing
Kevin Harvick has been arguably the best driver in the NASCAR Cup Series through the first 19 races of the 2018 season, and he is set to be back for at least one more season as the driver of the #4 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford.
The major question right now is whether Harvick will enter the season as just the 2014 Cup Series champion or as a two-time Cup Series champion. It could go either way by the looks of things right now, especially since Joe Gibbs Racing’s Kyle Busch and Furniture Row Racing’s Martin Truex Jr. have tightened the competition with him up front in the playoff standings.
Aric Almirola is in his first season as the driver of the #10 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford, and he has already secured more top 10 finishes (eight) than Danica Patrick was able to secure in that car (seven) in five whole seasons.
Almirola’s consistency has allowed him to have what has been his best career season so far. Smithfield sponsored him in each of his six seasons driving the #43 Richard Petty Motorsports Ford, so now that they moved from Richard Petty Motorsports to Stewart-Haas Racing, Almirola should be set for at least a few more seasons provided he continues to record solid results on a regular basis.
Stewart-Haas Racing (continued)
Clint Bowyer is currently in the midst of his best season since the 2012 season if not the best season of his NASCAR Cup Series career, and he is in just his second season driving the #14 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford following the retirement of Tony Stewart, the team co-owner who drove the #14 car when it was the #14 Chevrolet.
Bowyer may not be one of the youngest drivers in the Cup Series field, but he has gotten the job done better than any of the young drivers this season with two victories, which were his first two victories since the 2012 season. For the first time since the 2012 season, he has a legitimate chance to win his first Cup Series championship. Stewart-Haas Racing have no reason to cut ties with him ahead of the 2019 season.
Kurt Busch is at the center of many rumors revolving around NASCAR Xfinity Series driver Cole Custer potentially being promoted from the Stewart-Haas Racing Xfinity Series team to the Stewart-Haas Racing Cup Series team. Many people believe that he will replace Busch in the #41 Ford next season, but all signs point to Busch returning to the team for a sixth season in 2019 and Custer’s Cup Series hopes being put on hold yet again.
Busch is in the midst of one of his best seasons since he won the 2004 Cup Series championship, and this is the case despite the fact that he has still not won a race since he won the 2017 Daytona 500 nearly a year and a half ago. Why should Stewart-Haas Racing attempt to fix something that isn’t broken?
Joe Gibbs Racing
Many rumors are swirling that Christopher Bell could potentially replace Denny Hamlin in the #11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota sooner than people think. However, despite the fact that he hasn’t won a race in almost one year, Hamlin should be safe for now.
Hamlin signed a multi-year contract last season to remain with the team, and he still was just a few laps away from making it to last season’s Championship 4 before Chase Elliott put him into the wall late in the race at ISM Raceway, the final race of the round of eight of the playoffs, as payback for their incident in the race at Martinsville Speedway, the first race of the round of eight. Hamlin almost made the Championship 4 even without a win in the playoffs, so he can still drive with the best of them, and he can do so on a consistent basis.
Kyle Busch is currently performing at a level higher than he has ever performed at. With how accomplished he has been throughout his NASCAR Cup Series career, it is hard to believe that he is still only 33 years old.
Joe Gibbs Racing have no reason to sign another driver to replace Busch behind the wheel of the #18 Toyota any time in the near future if he continues to perform at this level or even at a level that is half as good as the level at which he is currently performing.
Joe Gibbs Racing
It is no secret that Daniel Suarez, who guaranteed that he would make this season’s playoffs, has underwhelmed since he took over the driving duties of the #19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota last year after Carl Edwards announced that he would be stepping away from the sport. However, he has shown flashes of potential more and more frequently, so if that continues, Joe Gibbs Racing will have no reason to cut ties with him before next season.
Even if it doesn’t continue, it may make sense to give him another season to try to prove himself. If that doesn’t work out, Toyota drivers Christopher Bell of Joe Gibbs Racing in the Xfinity Series or Noah Gragson of Kyle Busch Motorsports in the Truck Series could possibly replace him. Neither one of those drivers absolutely needs his ride in 2019.
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Erik Jones is in his first season driving the #20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota after he replaced Matt Kenseth following the conclusion of the 2017 season. While he had a slow start to the season, he has since picked it up. He is currently on a roll that includes his first career NASCAR Cup Series victory at Daytona International Speedway.
With Jones having secured his first career Cup Series playoff berth thanks to his first career Cup Series victory, it will be fun to see how he handles the rest of the season with those monkeys off of his back. Given how hot he has been lately, it would not be surprising to see him contend for this year’s championship. Even if he doesn’t do so, you can expect to see him back behind the wheel of the #20 Toyota contending for championships for many years to come.
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Is this how you see the 2019 NASCAR Cup Series driver lineup shaping out among the sport’s top six teams? If not, which drivers do you believe will drive for which teams next year?