Which of the four primary candidates to drive for Mercedes-AMG Petronas Motorsport in the 2020 Formula 1 season have the best chances to do so?
Valtteri Bottas, who has driven for Mercedes-AMG Petronas Motorsport in Formula 1 since after former Mercedes driver Nico Rosberg shockingly announced his retirement after winning his first career championship in the 2016 season, signed a one-year contract last July to continue driving for the team through at least the 2019 season.
This contract extension also includes an additional one-year option that would allow the 29-year-old Finn to continue driving for the Brackley-based team through the 2020 season, although it is not known whether or not this one-year option favors Mercedes or Bottas comes to making the decision to accept or reject it. It is heavily speculated that this decision will be up to Mercedes.
As a result, it is entirely possible that one of Mercedes’ two seats will be open once the 2019 season ends.
There are four primary candidates in terms of who will end up landing this race for the 2020 season. These four candidates are Bottas, Mercedes reserve driver Esteban Ocon, ROKiT Williams Racing’s George Russell and Aston Martin Red Bull Racing’s Max Verstappen.
Lewis Hamilton, who has driven for the Silver Arrows since the 2013 season, signed a contract extension last July slightly before Bottas did. As a result, he is set to continue driving for the team through the 2020 season, so whoever ends up driving the car that Bottas currently drives is set to become the teammate to the 34-year-old Briton.
Of the four primary candidates to drive for Mercedes as the teammate to the five-time champion in the 2020 season, who has the best chance? Here are the rankings of these four drivers in terms of their chances to do so.
George Russell is in his first season competing in Formula 1, and he is driving for Williams Racing, the undisputed slowest team on the grid. As a result, it will be tough for him to prove that he deserves a ride with the top-tier factory Mercedes team when all he can pretty much do is beat teammate Robert Kubica.
While Mercedes knew this going into the season and Williams’ pace certainly should not be used against Russell in any way, it is hard to see Mercedes promoting him to the factory team after just one season driving for a snail-paced team when all of the other candidates are not only far more experienced than the 2017 GP3 Series champion and 2018 Formula 2 champion is but far more proven in Formula 1 as well.
Russell can certainly prove his worth by consistently beating Kubica, and by beating him soundly like he has done in the season’s first two races, but it likely will not be enough to warrant a promotion to Mercedes after just one season.
In terms of Russell driving for Mercedes, the 2021 season is a more realistic possible first season for him to do so. In fact, after the 2017 season ended, Lewis Hamilton himself tabbed the 21-year-old Briton as his potential replacement assuming he leaves the Silver Arrows after the 2020 season.
Esteban Ocon was almost immediately named Mercedes’ reserve driver for the 2019 season after it was all but confirmed that he would not have a full-time ride this year after spending the last two seasons driving for Sahara Force India-turned-Racing Point Force India.
A few months after a Lawrence Stroll-led consortium purchased Force India last summer, Stroll’s son, Lance Stroll, was named Ocon’s replacement starting in the 2019 season, a driver confirmation that was pretty much all but guaranteed all along.
As a result, the 22-year-old Frenchman has been heavily rumored as Bottas’s replacement for the 2020 season and perhaps even for the 2019 season depending on how the 29-year-old Finn performs throughout this year.
While Ocon finished behind teammate Sergio Perez in the driver standings in both of his seasons driving for Force India and he and Perez were involved in fairly frequent run-ins with one another, something that Mercedes will simply not tolerate, he still has a great chance to drive for Mercedes in the 2020 season given the fact that he is now their reserve driver, especially if Bottas does not do enough to prove to the team that he deserves to retain his ride beyond this year.
That said, recent news surrounding one of the other top candidates to drive for Mercedes next year caused Ocon’s odds of landing this ride to take a slight dip even if Bottas ends up not returning to the Silver Arrows next year.
Following a series of admissions by Red Bull Racing manager Helmut Marko, Max Verstappen has suddenly emerged as a shock candidate to drive for Mercedes in the 2020 season despite the fact that he signed a contract to continue driving for the Milton Keynes-based team through the 2020 season in October of 2017.
A key reason for this is the fact that Verstappen, as Marko admitted, is reportedly allowed to leave Red Bull Racing due to a performance clause in this contract, meaning that if the team do not give him a car that is capable of competing for the 2019 season championship, the rising star who many fans see as a future Formula 1 champion is free to pursue other options.
He wouldn’t have to look far in that pursuit.
With Mercedes team principal and CEO Toto Wolff reportedly already having contacted the 21-year-old Dutchman and his father, former Formula 1 driver Jos Verstappen, on multiple occasions about driving for the Silver Arrows in the 2020 season, expect him to be the go-to driver for the Brackley-based team if he leaves Red Bull Racing after the 2019 season ends and if Mercedes do not re-sign Bottas for next year.
Jos has denied that Wolff has reached out to his son, but he has admitted that Wolff has called him from time to time. He also hinted that what Marko stated about the performance clause in his son’s contract is true.
Even if this scenario plays out, however, the one main obstacle for the always aggressive Verstappen may be Lewis Hamilton’s influence on Mercedes’ decision — no further comment needed.
Valtteri Bottas was the subject of replacement rumors at Mercedes for the 2018 and 2019 seasons, so the rumors that he may be replaced by another driver at the Brackley-based team ahead of the 2020 season are nothing new to him.
With all things considered, the 29-year-old Finn is still the favorite to return to Mercedes next season and to be Lewis Hamilton’s teammate for the fourth consecutive season, even if he is not the overwhelming favorite like he has been in past seasons.
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Bottas, while his race results and finishes in the driver standings have been the worst among those of the three drivers who have driven for Mercedes at any point since the V6 turbo hybrid era began in the 2014 season, has proven on multiple occasions that he can serve as a great team player to the five-time champion, and he has also proven that he himself can contend for race victories.
In fact, through the first two races of the 2019 season, he leads the driver standings ahead of Hamilton in second place, as he won the season opener, the Australian Grand Prix, before finishing in second in the season’s second race, the Bahrain Grand Prix.
If he can continue to establish himself as a legitimate championship contender, Mercedes would have no reason not to utilize the additional one-year option on the one-year contract extension that he signed last summer.
Of the four primary candidates to be Lewis Hamilton’s teammate at Mercedes in the 2020 Formula 1 season, Valtteri Bottas, Esteban Ocon, George Russell and Max Verstappen, who do you believe has the best chance of driving for the Silver Arrows next year?
With only two of the 21 races on the 2019 schedule having been contested, don’t expect to know the answer to this question for at least another several months, but be sure not to forget about it.