Ross Chastain has an uphill climb to make the 2019 NASCAR Truck Series playoffs, but he is still more than capable of winning the championship.
Niece Motorsports’ Ross Chastain appeared to be well on his way to the 2019 NASCAR Truck Series playoffs after winning the season’s 10th race, the M&M’s 200, at Iowa Speedway.
This victory was Chastain’s second victory of the season, as he also won the race at Kansas Speedway last month, but it was his first victory in two starts since he declared for Truck Series points following the halfway mark of the 16-race regular season.
Chastain launched himself into 25th place in the championship standings and was just 14 points out of the required top 20 to be eligible to qualify for the playoffs after this victory. After averaging 49 points in two starts as a Truck Series championship eligible driver, he trailed Reaume Brothers Racing’s Josh Reaume by 14 points (112 to 98) for 20th.
Then it all went away.
Following post-race inspection, Chastain was stripped of his M&M’s 200 victory, and he was officially scored in 32nd (last) place. He was also stripped of the two stage victories he earned in this 200-lap race around the four-turn 0.875-mile (1.408-kilometer) Iowa Speedway oval in Newton, Iowa, bringing his point total in this race from a perfect 60 down to a race-low five.
In summation, Chastain is now without a victory to lock himself into the playoffs, and he sits in 35th place in the championship standings with just 43 points, 69 shy of Reaume in 20th.
But even after all of this, there are still plenty of reasons to believe that the 26-year-old Alva, Florida native will not only advance to the playoffs but that he will win his first Truck Series championship come the Championship 4 at Homestead-Miami Speedway in mid-November.
Here’s why.
Top 20 in the championship standings
One of the requirements for Ross Chastain to be eligible to compete in the playoffs, even if he earns a victory that actually counts toward his playoff bid, is that he must finish in the top 20 in the regular season championship standings.
This may seem like a tall task for the man who currently sits all the way down in 35th place in the championship standings and 69 points, more than one full race’s worth of points, out of the top 20 in the standings.
But a grand total of zero of the drivers who Chastain needs to pass in the championship standings to launch himself into the top 20 are even full-time drivers, and none of the part-time drivers are even close to being considered perennial weekend contenders for top-notch results, if not victories, like Chastain is. He is more than capable of making up these 69 points and far more over the course of the regular season’s final six races.
He earned 38 points in the race at Texas Motor Speedway, including 11 stage points and 27 for his 10th place finish in the race, his season-low finish, and after sweeping the first two stages and the race itself at Iowa Speedway, he was already up to 98 points and 25th place in the championship standings, just 14 points out of the top 20. He likely would have been in the top 20 after this Saturday night’s race at World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway.
Getting to the top 20 in the championship standings is the least of Chastain’s concerns. It should be a piece of cake considering how long he has to do it.
One victory
As stated on the previous slide, the only thing Ross Chastain needs to do aside of finish the regular season in the top 20 in the championship standings to qualify for the playoffs is win one of the final six races of the regular season.
Winning Truck Series races is not easy unless your name is Kyle Busch and you literally can’t and don’t lose when you’re allowed to compete. But second to Busch this season has been none other than Chastain.
Aside of his first to 32nd place demotion at Iowa Speedway, Chastain has not finished outside of the top 10 this season. His average finishing position in the season’s first nine races was 6.78, the best among full-time drivers, and it would be 6.20 had his M&M’s 200 victory stood, which would rank third among full-time drivers. Even still, it is a solid 9.30, which ranks fourth.
As a result, it is never surprising to see Chastain race well anywhere. He is one of the few drivers if not the only driver who is capable of winning at each and every track on the schedule, and with two (traditional) victories in the season’s first 10 races, he should be able to win at least one more race prior to the regular season’s conclusion. His chances of winning at least one of these races are probably better than him failing to win all six of them.
No dominant driver
Aside of the non-championship eligible Kyle Busch, there has not been a dominant driver in the Truck Series so far this season. Only three full-time drivers, including only two who have been championship eligible since the season began, have taken the checkered flag at any point this season.
Hattori Racing Enterprises’ Austin Hill and ThorSport Racing’s Johnny Sauter are the two drivers who have taken a checkered flag so far this season and have been championship eligible since the season began. Hill won the season opener at Daytona International Speedway and Sauter won the season’s sixth race at Dover International Speedway.
Chastain, meanwhile, has won twice and is the only full-time driver who has done so. Unfortunately, his first victory did not count toward locking him into the playoffs since he had not yet declared for Truck Series points at the time, and his second victory was stripped and handed to second place finisher Brett Moffitt of GMS Racing.
Assuming he can lock himself into the playoffs with a top 20 finish in the regular season championship standings and at least one victory in the regular season’s final six races, Chastain should be considered not only a true contender but the championship favorite given the fact that there is no clear standout in the Truck Series this season. Had he been declared for Truck Series points since the season began, he would easily be that standout as we speak.
The only driver in the top six in the championship standings who has actually won a race this season is Moffitt, who sits in fourth place, and he won after finishing in second.
Law of averages
Over the last several months, pretty much everything that has happened to Ross Chastain has been on either the highly favorable end of the spectrum or the highly unfavorable end of the spectrum.
Chastain landed a deal with Chip Ganassi Racing in the Xfinity Series in August of 2018 for three races in September, and he made the most of that opportunity by dominating two of those three races, including one that resulted in him earning the first victory of his Xfinity Series career and one that resulted in him being wrecked by Kevin Harvick late, and finishing in second place in the other.
As a result, in November, Chip Ganassi Racing signed Chastain as the full-time driver of the #42 Chevrolet for the 2019 season.
Shortly thereafter, Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) agents raided the home of Jeff Carpoff, the CEO of Chip Ganassi Racing primary sponsor DC Solar. As a result, Chip Ganassi Racing were forced to shut down their Xfinity Series team for the 2019 season, leaving Chastain without a ride.
Chastain did up landing a full-time Xfinity Series ride with two teams, JD Motorsports and Kaulig Racing, in late January in addition to a then part-time Truck Series ride with Niece Motorsports that he had landed earlier in the month to go along with the full-time Cup Series ride he had already secured with Premium Motorsports back in October.
Law of averages (continued)
Ross Chastain earned the first victory of his Truck Series career by winning the race at Kansas Speedway in May, and he broke the all-time record for consecutive starts across the Truck Series, the Xfinity Series and the Cup Series to start a season with 36.
Unfortunately for Chastain, he had not declared for Truck Series points by that time, so despite the fact that he won this race, it did not lock him into the playoffs. After the following race at Charlotte Motor Speedway, he declared for Truck Series points, and in just his second start as a championship eligible driver at Iowa Speedway, he seemingly all but locked himself into the playoffs with another victory.
A few hours later, he lost this victory after his #44 Chevrolet failed post-race inspection, meaning he still needs to win another race and score a lot more points to qualify for the playoffs.
So with two victories so far this season, the most among full-time Truck Series drivers, Chastain is still seeking a playoff berth.
With all of the twists and turns that Chastain has endured over the last several months, it would only make sense for him to overcome his latest setback and launch himself into the playoffs, propel himself into the Championship 4 and win his first career Truck Series championship. The law of averages has certainly been the story of his racing career over the past several months, so why should that stop now on an extremely negative note?
Motivation
After everything that he has gone through over the last several months dating back to late last August, there is no reason to believe that any other driver in not only the NASCAR Truck Series but in NASCAR is more motivated to perform at a high level than Ross Chastain is.
Chastain and his Niece Motorsports team made the bold decision, with half of the 16-race regular season already in the books, to make him eligible for Truck Series points. They knew from the start that it would be an uphill battle for him to qualify for the playoffs, but they knew that they had everything they could possible need to get the job done in a shortened amount of time.
Additionally, this decision required Chastain to give up his points and his championship eligibility in the Xfinity Series. While he undoubtedly gave up the lesser of his two championship opportunities, he still had a chance to advance to the Xfinity Series playoffs, and now he doesn’t, period.
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Chastain proved that he and Niece Motorsports have what it takes to qualify for the playoffs and win the championship with the most dominant performance in his Truck Series career in just his second start as a championship eligible driver.
The fact that the victory that Chastain earned in this race was taken away from him should only magnify his motivation, and considering the fact that it happened early in his stint as a championship eligible driver, he and the team still have six golden opportunities to lock themselves into the playoffs.
In other words, he is basically back to square one, but on the plus side, he has 43 points to work with to get into the top 20 in the championship standings instead of zero, and on the minus side, he has six races remaining as opposed to eight to secure another victory.
With how Chastain has been driving, the loss of two of these eight races may not end up mattering much. Realistically speaking, it’s not like much has changed for him from the time he declared for Truck Series points until now aside of the fact that he is now going to be even more fired up to get the job done after NASCAR stripped him of his hard-earned M&M’s 200 victory.
Will Ross Chastain find a way to qualify for the 2019 NASCAR Truck Series playoffs despite his recent setback and make a run at his first career Truck Series championship this year? He has all the tools he needs to do it, and there are many additional reasons why he should not be doubted.