With Formula 1 Silly Season in full swing, which drivers will end up driving for which teams in the 2020 season? Let’s take a look at the most logical scenarios and make sense of the rumors.
The 2019 Formula 1 season’s summer break is coming to a close at the end of this week, and 2020 Silly Season is in full swing.
There have not yet been many driver confirmations for next year, and as a result, the rumors about which drivers will end up driving for which teams have only intensified over the course of this four-week break.
Of the 20 projected seats on next year’s grid, 10 among eight of the sport’s 10 teams have confirmed drivers, although one of these 10 confirmations is somewhat questionable given the team’s current situation.
Regardless, at least 10 open seats among eight of the sport’s 10 teams remain, and that means there have been and will continue to be plenty of rumors about how next year’s driver lineup will look.
Which drivers have been confirmed for the 2020 season and which drivers are rumored to land in which of the remaining open seats?
Let’s get started by looking at the top two teams, Mercedes-AMG Petronas Motorsport and Scuderia Ferrari, before looking at the other eight teams as we try to make sense of some of the rumors and factor in those rumors with what has already been solidified for next year.
Mercedes
CONFIRMED: Lewis Hamilton signed a two-year contract extension with Mercedes back in July of 2018. The five-time champion and 81-time Grand Prix winner isn’t going anywhere.
SPECULATION: Valtteri Bottas’ current contract with Mercedes, which he also signed in July of 2018, ends at the end of the 2019 season, and the team did not pick up the one-year option that it contained. However, they could still sign him to an altogether new contract, and they have been tipped to do so. Bottas is a proven winner and a team player, and fixing what isn’t broken should not be something that the five-time reigning champions attempt to do this offseason.
Ferrari
CONFIRMED: Despite retirement rumors and even rumors that he may trigger a clause in his contract to leave Ferrari and join another team, Sebastian Vettel is committed to driving for the Scuderia through at least the 2020 season, which is when his contract ends.
CONFIRMED: Charles Leclerc’s initial Ferrari deal, which began this season, was first reported as a four-year contract. There’s a reason he is dubbed the future face of the team — and perhaps even already the face of the team.
Red Bull Racing
CONFIRMED: Ending months of speculation that he would sign with Mercedes, the performance exit clause in Max Verstappen’s contract with Red Bull Racing, which doesn’t end until the end of the 2020 season, expired without him being able to trigger it, team manager Helmut Marko confirmed. As a result, he is set for his fifth consecutive season with the Milton Keynes-based team next year.
SPECULATION: Alexander Albon has not yet driven in a race for Red Bull Racing following his mid-season promotion from Scuderia Toro Rosso. Him finding success over the course of the 2019 season’s final nine races would make Red Bull Racing’s decision for who to pair with Max Verstappen next year easy, and perhaps most importantly, low-risk. After Pierre Gasly struggled mightily through the season’s first 12 races, it’s safe to say that if Albon can provide the team with some sense of consistency when it comes to securing solid results, he will be back with them next year.
McLaren
CONFIRMED: McLaren recently confirmed that Carlos Sainz Jr.’s contract with the team runs through at least the 2020 season.
CONFIRMED: McLaren also recently confirmed that Lando Norris’s contract with the team runs through at least the 2020 season. In fact, they confirmed that it runs through at least the 2022 season.
Toro Rosso
SPECULATION: Daniil Kvyat has taken full advantage of the second chance that he was given by the Red Bull Racing organization this season in his return to Toro Rosso after he was cut by Red Bull Racing before the 2016 season ended and then cut by Toro Rosso before the 2017 season ended. It was Alexander Albon, not Kvyat, who got the nod to replace the underperforming Pierre Gasly at Red Bull Racing for at least the remainder of the 2019 season, but that doesn’t undervalue what Kvyat has been able to accomplish back behind the wheel of a Formula 1 car.
SPECULATION: Toro Rosso second-year Japanese engine manufacturer Honda are eager to place the first Japanese driver in Formula 1 since Kamui Kobayashi drove for Caterham in the 2014 season, and they would like to have that driver driving a Honda-powered car for the first time since Takuma Sato drove for Super Aguri in the 2008 season. Super Formula points leader Naoki Yamamoto is the odds-on favorite to get the nod if Toro Rosso take this route.
Renault
CONFIRMED: Daniel Ricciardo signed a two-year contract with Renault in August of 2018 after making the shocking decision to leave Red Bull Racing. His contract is believed to have an out clause, but there are no available seats elsewhere that would allow him to trigger such a clause.
SPECULATION: Esteban Ocon is currently Mercedes’ reserve and test driver, and he previously served in that role for Renault. Mercedes team principal and CEO Toto Wolff wants Ocon back in Formula 1 after he was left off this year’s lineup, but it seems as though he is not quite ready for him at Mercedes. After Renault managing director Cyril Abiteboul backed out of the handshake agreement that he had with Wolff last year and signed Daniel Ricciardo over Ocon, Wolff has urged Abiteboul to “restore his gentleman image”. That appears as though it will happen, as the 22-year-old Frenchman has been tipped to drive for the French marque.
Alfa Romeo Racing
CONFIRMED: Kimi Raikkonen signed a two-year contract with Alfa Romeo Racing ahead of the 2019 season after Charles Leclerc replaced him at Ferrari. As long as the Swiss team stay out of the 39-year-old Finn’s personal life, he is set to honor that contract.
SPECULATION: Mick Schumacher needs more Super License points to drive in Formula 1 next year, and the Ferrari Driver Academy member is not currently slated to earn enough. He needs to finish in the top six in the Formula 2 driver standings, and he currently sits in 11th place. However, after starting the season with just three top eight finishes in the first 11 races, he has recorded four, including his first career victory, in the last five events. If the Formula 3 European champion can put his head down over the next few months, he could very well find himself driving for Alfa Romeo Racing in 2020.
Racing Point
SPECULATION: Sergio Perez entered the 2019 season on a four-year streak of beating his teammates in the driver standings, which was tied with Sebastian Vettel’s streak for the longest in Formula 1. While that streak is in danger of ending, this is only because of a strategy call that netted teammate Lance Stroll a fourth place finish in the German Grand Prix. Perez and Racing Point are currently working on a long-term deal to keep the 29-year-old Mexican with the team that he has become the face of over the years.
SPECULATION: Lance Stroll’s father Lawrence led a consortium and purchased Racing Point, then known as Sahara Force India, for $117 million last year before replacing Esteban Ocon with his son. This move came not even two years after he bought his son a seat with Williams for $80 million. Lawrence’s deep pockets coupled with the fact that Lance is leading Sergio Perez in the driver standings with a chance to become his first teammate to beat him in five years means that the younger’s Stroll’s future with Racing Point is about as secure as it can possibly be.
Haas
CONFIRMED?: Kevin Magnussen’s contract with Haas runs through the 2020 season, but it is believed that the team have a clause in this contract that would allow them to end that deal one year early, perhaps because of his multiple run-ins with teammate Romain Grosjean so far this year. Either way, expect him back with the sport’s lone American outfit next year, as team principal Guenther Steiner previously stated that they would likely not sign a rookie. Pietro Fittipaldi would be the most likely rookie in the team’s sights, as he is currently their reserve and test driver.
SPECULATION: There is reportedly a clause in Nico Hulkenberg’s contract with Renault that he cannot be replaced by the team unless he has another landing spot in Formula 1 next year. With Haas looking to change up their driver lineup, signing the 32-year-old German would make sense even given his history with Kevin Magnussen. Their most notable spat with one another during the 2017 Hungarian Grand Prix weekend is reportedly “water under the bridge”.
Williams
CONFIRMED: Williams deputy team principal Claire Williams claimed that George Russell is under contract through the 2021 season amid speculation that the Mercedes junior driver could be promoted to Mercedes ahead of next season or ahead of the following season.
SPECULATION: Nicholas Latifi is in the midst of his third season competing in Formula 2, and he is having a career year, as his series-high four victories have him running in second place in the driver standings. Before the season began, he signed with Williams to be their reserve and test driver. If the team opt to replace the underperforming Robert Kubica, Latifi should be their go-to guy.
Driving in 2019, missing from 2020 driver lineup prediction
SPECULATION: Romain Grosjean just barely saved his ride with Haas after a terrible start to the 2018 season. But his 2019 season has been even worse, and it has involved one too many run-ins with teammate Kevin Magnussen for him to be considered anything but a likely ex-Haas driver once the season ends.
SPECULATION: Pierre Gasly’s impressive 2018 season at Toro Rosso landed him at Red Bull Racing for the 2019 season, but his lackluster performance at Red Bull Racing landed him back at Toro Rosso just after the 2019 season’s halfway point. Unless he can show marked improvement at the Faenza-based team following his demotion, the idea that he can’t perform well at the flagship team will linger over the heads of those making the decisions for next year’s driver lineup, especially with the prospect of Honda persuading the team to sign Naoki Yamamoto.
SPECULATION: Antonio Giovinazzi has simply not performed well in his rookie season driving for Alfa Romeo Racing. He has scored just one of the team’s 32 points, and even had both he and teammate Kimi Raikkonen not been penalized and stripped of their top eight results following the German Grand Prix, he would still have accounted for just five of their 42 points. Surely Ferrari will want to give another one of their young drivers a chance in Formula 1 after promoting the 25-year-old Italian to the Ferrari-powered team ahead of this year.
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SPECULATION: Robert Kubica has simply not performed well in his comeback season to Formula 1. While he is responsible for scoring Williams’ lone point so far in 2019, he scored that point thanks to a very, very fortunate sequence of events in a race during which Williams themselves cost teammate George Russell a top five finish.
Russell has outqualified the 34-year-old Pole for all 12 races that have been contested so far this year, and he has beaten him on race day in 10 of those races. In five of those races, he has finished one lap ahead of him.
What will the 2020 Formula 1 driver lineup look like once the season rolls around? Which drivers will be driving for which teams? With still nine of the 2019 season’s 21 races remaining on the schedule and a whole offseason to get through before the 2020 season opener, it may be quite a while before we know all of the answers to these questions.