Sebastian Vettel has struggled with mistakes of many varieties in recent seasons. If his contract is not extended beyond the 2020 Formula 1 season, who will replace him at Scuderia Ferrari?
Ferrari have plagued themselves in the form of unforced errors in recent Formula 1 seasons, namely via strategy blunders and more recently via failed team management as a whole when it comes to drivers Charles Leclerc and Sebastian Vettel.
But Vettel, a four-time world champion, has played a huge role in these unforced errors on his own, making mistake after mistake in recent years and costing himself several points, podium finishes and victories.
In fact, if you do the math and take his unforced mistakes in the 2017 and 2018 seasons, the points he lost as a result of those mistakes and the points that Lewis Hamilton, who won both world titles, gained as a result of them, you would find that Vettel would be a six-time champion and Hamilton would be a four-time champion instead of the other way around.
These mistakes include but are not limited to far too aggressive pass attempts, spins, dangerous reentries onto the track, including one incident that nearly led to a suspension, crashing into other drivers, including Leclerc, and crashing on his own while leading big.
Vettel has a contract to return to Ferrari in the 2020 season, as he signed a three-year contract extension with the Italian team back in August of 2017. Provided he returns to the team in 2020 but not in 2021, who will replace him?
Here are five possible replacements for him.
Antonio Giovinazzi
After the Ferrari-backed Charles Leclerc was promoted from Alfa Romeo Sauber (now Alfa Romeo Racing) as the replacement for Kimi Raikkonen at Ferrari, Raikkonen was named his replacement.
But it was technically Antonio Giovinazzi who ended up being his replacement. Ferrari have the right to select one of Alfa Romeo Racing’s two drivers, and they selected Giovinazzi; Raikkonen was simply the replacement for now-IndyCar driver Marcus Ericsson.
Giovinazzi struggled early on in his rookie season for the Swiss team, but he closed out the season arguably better than Raikkonen and is truly beginning to come into his own.
Above all, Ferrari have faith in him. Even before his recent career-high finish of fifth place in the Brazilian Grand Prix, they backed him to return to Alfa Romeo Racing alongside Raikkonen in the 2020 season, and he is slated to do so.
The one big argument against the 25-year-old Italian is the fact that he isn’t quite ready to drive for Ferrari yet, and that argument is easily supported.
But another season driving for Alfa Romeo should at least put him in position to be a solid number two counterpart for Charles Leclerc, which could and probably should be exactly what Ferrari are looking for to avoid drama moving forward.
Daniel Ricciardo
While he was still at Red Bull Racing in the 2017 and 2018 seasons, Daniel Ricciardo had been rumored as a possible future driver for Mercedes or Ferrari.
He ultimately did leave Red Bull Racing after the 2018 season, but he did so by signing with Renault, and that decision has not paid off thus far in more ways than one.
It is also worth noting to Renault have signed Esteban Ocon to replace Nico Hulkenberg for the 2020 season and beyond, and team managing director Cyril Abiteboul hinted that the French marque could sign a young driver from the Renault Driver Academy ahead of the 2021 season to pair with the 23-year-old Frenchman.
This would mean that Ricciardo, much like Hulkenberg is now and likely will be for the 2020 season, will be without a ride for the 2021 season unless he lands elsewhere, and Ferrari could be the perfect landing spot.
Even in equipment that is far inferior to that of Red Bull Racing, Ricciardo has done a solid job, as expected, in his first season at Renault, and it wouldn’t be shocking if that success continues into next year.
He could be a perfect selection for Ferrari; he is experienced, he is fast, and it would be clear upon signing that his ultimate role within the team would be to be more of a team player than he is now with Charles Leclerc on the rise.
While that aspect of competition with Max Verstappen may have played a role in his departure from Red Bull Racing, it has become clear, if it wasn’t already, that his results at Ferrari as a number two driver would still be many times better than his results as an anything driver at Renault, just as his results at Red Bull Racing were even despite a boatload of mechanical issue-related retirements.
Kimi Raikkonen
Kimi Raikkonen is the driver with whom Ferrari cut ties to replace with Charles Leclerc ahead of the 2019 season even after growing speculation that the death of Sergio Marchionne would prompt a one-year delay or perhaps even a two-year delay to promote the 22-year-old Monegasque.
That ultimately did not happen, as Ferrari opted to promote Leclerc anyway while Raikkonen signed with Alfa Romeo Racing, Leclerc’s former team.
Raikkonen signed a two-year contract to drive for Alfa Romeo Racing, so he is slated to be a free agent after the 2020 season. He could very well retire after next year considering the fact that he is slated to set the all-time Formula 1 starts record in the Austrian Grand Prix Grand Prix in July of 2020, but would the passionate 40-year-old Finn do so with a potential third stint at Ferrari on the table?
Raikkonen was always the number two driver at Ferrari when he was Sebastian Vettel’s teammate there from 2015 to 2018, but he was paramount in terms of setting up the car and delivering top-quality driver feedback.
Pairing him with a rising star in Leclerc could give Ferrari the boost they need to finally break through and win their first constructor championship since the 2008 season and their first driver championship since Raikkonen won it in the 2007 season.
Max Verstappen
Max Verstappen would present Ferrari with two things, one good and one bad. The good one is the more obvious one; he is another potential world champion who has already achieved a ton of success in Formula 1 even though he is still only 22 years old.
The bad one is the fact that he would certainly not be willing to concede the number one driver role to Charles Leclerc, a role that Leclerc has illustrated on multiple occasions as Sebastian Vettel’s teammate in 2019 that he also isn’t willing to concede.
Of course, there is a positive aspect in this as well. While Verstappen initially was considered crash-prone, thus earning himself the unwanted nicknames “Vercrashen” and “Crashstappen”, he has been far more in-form than Vettel over the last two seasons as far as his clean driving habits are concerned.
So it would be two legitimate top-tier drivers battling for race wins at Ferrari as opposed to one hindering the other via poor on-track decisions, including some circumstances that have led to disaster, and disobeying of team instructions.
Still, Ferrari may seek to avoid the headache of having two young talented alpha drivers within the team competing at the highest level in the red cars on Sundays to avoid any kind of other drama that may ensue.
Then again, Verstappen has stated that he would be fine as Leclerc’s teammate, and if Red Bull Racing do not improve in the 2020 season, a contract year for Verstappen, he could very well and perhaps even should seek other options.
Lewis Hamilton
In this day and age, it’s impossible not to mention Lewis Hamilton as a possible future candidate to drive for Ferrari when discussing his future and that of the team.
Hamilton, now a six-time champion, has not ruled out joining the Scuderia, and his contract with Mercedes expires at the end of the 2020 season after he signed a two-year contract extension back in July of 2018.
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The 34-year-old Briton is the only one of five drivers who have won at least four world championships to never drive for Ferrari, but even Mercedes have admitted that they are prepared if he does opt to leave the Silver Arrows for Ferrari after the 2020 season.
With the new budget cap set to be introduced ahead of the 2021 season and driver salaries not included in that cap, the current top-tier teams should still theoretically be in position to get the best results since they can offer the top drivers higher pay for their services. Would Hamilton really leave Ferrari if he is offered a deal he can’t refuse?
Mercedes CEO and team principal Toto Wolff has already said that there are several drivers who he has his eye on to take Hamilton’s place, and the rumors of Hamilton leaving the team have only continued to heat up in recent weeks.
Could that mean Mercedes won’t push as hard to retain him as they would have even just a few years ago if Ferrari do come through with that attractive offer?
Who will replace Sebastian Vettel at Ferrari provided he remains with the team for the 2020 Formula 1 season but is released once his contract expires ahead of 2021?