With several drivers slated to become free agents after the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series season, there are several notable potentially open rides for 2021. Here are the top five.
The 2021 free agent class is set to be arguably the most loaded that the NASCAR Cup Series has seen in quite some time, meaning that there are several rides that are slated to become available among the sport’s top-tier teams.
As of now, assessing the sport’s top five teams (Joe Gibbs Racing, Stewart-Haas Racing, Hendrick Motorsports, Team Penske and Chip Ganassi Racing), there are 17 drivers under contract for the 2020 season, of whom 16 drove for these teams in 2019.
However, only nine of these drivers have been confirmed by their respective teams for the 2021 season. It had been eight, but Silly Season got off to an early start when Ryan Blaney re-signed with Team Penske on a multi-year contract extension.
While some, most notably Stewart-Haas Racing rookie Cole Custer and Hendrick Motorsports’ Alex Bowman, will likely be in position to return and others including Team Penske’s Brad Keselowski may also have no reason to leave, there are several potentially open seats within these teams that remain particularly intriguing as far as the the 2021 driver lineup is concerned.
Here are the top five seats to keep your eye on as Silly Season progresses for 2021 throughout the 2020 season.
No. 42 Chip Ganassi Racing Chevrolet
Kyle Larson has driven the #42 Chevrolet for Chip Ganassi Racing since the 2014 NASCAR Cup Series season, but he is set to be arguably NASCAR’s hottest free agent after the 2020 season after he was confirmed by the team for next year but not beyond.
Larson has already been linked with several other teams, most notably Stewart-Haas Racing and Hendrick Motorsports.
Stewart-Haas Racing co-owner Tony Stewart wanted Larson behind the wheel of the #14 Ford for the 2017 season, and he made that clear in 2015 when he announced that the 2016 season would be his last. Unfortunately, Larson was unable to sign a contract with another team at that time, per the specifics of his contract with Chip Ganassi’s team.
As for Hendrick Motorsports, Larson is social media’s favorite to replace seven-time champion Jimmie Johnson behind the wheel of the #48 Chevrolet after he steps away from full-time competition following the 2020 season.
Because Larson’s dirt track racing schedule will remain his priority, a return to Chip Ganassi Racing isn’t out of the question, even factoring in loyalty alone; he has only ever driven full-time for Ganassi.
Nevertheless, the #42 Chevrolet will be a seat to watch, especially if he leaves.
Would the team sign Ross Chastain, who impressed in three Xfinity Series races for them in 2018? Chastain was set to compete full-time for the team in the 2019 Xfinity Series season, but a sponsorship debacle caused the team to shutter their Xfinity Series program and prevented that from happening.
Chastain is still tied to the team, and Ganassi needs to make sure that remains the case. He ended up finishing in second place in the 2019 Truck Series championship standings, and he has his best chance to shine on a full-time basis in the Xfinity Series after landing a ride with Kaulig Racing for 2020. Through the first four races of the season, he sits in fifth in the standings.
No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
Erik Jones has driven the #20 Toyota for Joe Gibbs Racing since replacing Matt Kenseth ahead of the 2018 NASCAR Cup Series season. He was confirmed by the team for the 2020 season back in September of 2019, but this confirmation came amid speculation that he would be replaced by then-Joe Gibbs Racing Xfinity Series driver Christopher Bell.
The team confirmed the 23-year-old Byron, Michigan native for a third season behind the wheel of the #20 Toyota, but they did so by signing him only to a one-year deal.
Notably, they promoted Bell to the Cup Series anyway. Bell now drives for Leavine Family Racing, which formed a technical alliance with Joe Gibbs Racing ahead of the 2019 season, and they enhanced that alliance for 2020 with the arrival of Bell. Bell is still under contract with Joe Gibbs’s team.
If Jones does not perform at a high enough level, it is hard to see Gibbs even hesitating to replace him with Bell in 2021 after Bell tore it up in two seasons in the Xfinity Series, winning 15 races in 66 starts and qualifying for the Championship 4 in both years. Additionally, Bell is actually older than Jones, so it wouldn’t be like Gibbs would be promoting an inexperienced teenager.
Jones has everything it takes to be a top-tier Cup Series driver, and he has shown it in his first three seasons in the series, particularly in his first two seasons driving for Joe Gibbs Racing. He just needs some consistency, something he lacked severely in 20198.
So will it be Jones or Bell behind the wheel of the #20 Toyota in 2021? Could somebody else potentially emerge as a dark horse candidate as well?
No. 10 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford
Aric Almirola has driven the #10 Ford for Stewart-Haas Racing since replacing the now retired Danica Patrick ahead of the 2018 NASCAR Cup Series season. He was confirmed for the 2020 season after he and Smithfield, his primary sponsor since 2012, reached a one-year contract extension with the four-car Ford team.
After a successful first season with the four-car Ford team that included a victory at Talladega Superspeedway, a round of 8 appearance in the playoffs and a career-high — by far — fifth place finish in the championship standings, however, Almirola took a step back in 2019.
Stewart-Haas Racing as a whole weren’t nearly as prolific in 2019 as they were in 2018, but Kevin Harvick still managed to qualify for the Championship 4 for the fifth time in six years and the third year in a row with four victories, all in the second half of the season.
Almirola, meanwhile, went winless. In fact, he recorded only six top 10 finishes in the final 29 races of the season, and he was eliminated from the playoffs after the round of 16 before ending up in 14th place in the championship standings.
If he doesn’t get back on the right track in 2020, it’s not too far-fetched to think that the 35-year-old Fort Walton Beach, Florida native could be on his way out.
Stewart-Haas Racing have altered their driver lineup in some way for four consecutive seasons, having not maintained the same four drivers from one year to the next since from the 2015 season to the 2016 season.
With Chase Briscoe contending for the 2020 Xfinity Series championship, he could very well follow in Cole Custer’s footsteps and end up at NASCAR’s highest level in 2021 after Custer was promoted from Stewart-Haas Racing’s Xfinity Series team to their Cup Series team ahead of the 2020 season as Daniel Suarez’s replacement.
And in the midst of a youth movement, he could very well replace Almirola.
Corey LaJoie also can’t be ignored as a potential future Stewart-Haas Racing driver. He is set to drive for Go Fas Racing for a second consecutive season in 2020, and Go Fas Racing formed a technical alliance with Stewart-Haas Racing for next year.
Don’t forget about Kyle Larson, either, given the fact that Tony Stewart wanted him for the 2017 season.
No. 14 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford
Clint Bowyer has driven the #14 Ford for Stewart-Haas Racing since replacing three-time NASCAR Cup Series champion and team co-owner Tony Stewart ahead of the 2017 season, the season ahead of which the four-car Ford team switched manufacturers from Chevrolet to Ford.
The 40-year-old Emporia, Kansas native is in his fourth season driving for the team after rumors abounded throughout most of the 2019 season that he would be replaced by Stewart-Haas Racing Xfinity Series superstar Cole Custer in 2020.
Added to that speculation was the fact that Stewart-Haas Racing hadn’t maintained a consistent four-driver lineup from one year to the next since between the 2015 and 2016 seasons.
Bowyer ended up signing a one-year contract extension to remain with the team in October and Custer ended up being promoted to the Cup Series after three seasons in the Xfinity Series anyway, so the team did end up altering their driver lineup.
But Bowyer could very well be next on his way out at Stewart-Haas Racing.
After winning a race — in fact, two — in the 2018 season for the first time since 2012 and advancing to the round of 8, Bowyer went winless for the second time in three seasons at Stewart-Haas Racing in 2019 and only advanced to the round of 12.
In the midst of a youth movement, Bowyer’s age coupled with his lack of recent success in terms of finding victory lane doesn’t exactly bode well for him, nor does the fact that his new contract was only a one-year deal.
But will he step it up throughout the 2020 season? Perhaps more importantly, will he have the sponsorship necessary to be back behind the wheel of the #14 Ford for the fifth time in 2021, or will he be replaced to continue Stewart-Haas Racing’s trend of altering their driver lineup from year to year?
No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
Jimmie Johnson currently drives the #48 Chevrolet for Hendrick Motorsports, and he has done so in each of the last 652 races going back to the start of the 2002 NASCAR Cup Series season after making the first three starts of his career behind the wheel of the car in 2001.
Nobody other than the 44-year-old El Cajon, California native has driven the #48 Chevrolet during its current stint in NASCAR.
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That will change in 2021.
Back in November of 2019, the seven-time champion announced that the 2020 season will be his 19th and final season of full-time competition at NASCAR’s highest level, meaning that a replacement is slated to be named at some point within the next several months.
So while he technically isn’t a free agent, he has confirmed that he will not sign a contract extension with Hendrick Motorsports for the 2021 season.
Ally Financial have already signed a contract extension to continue serving as the full-time primary sponsor of the #48 Chevrolet through the 2023 season, so Hendrick Motorsports will pretty much be able to pick whoever they want to replace him.
There is speculation that Hendrick Motorsports may end the #48 Chevrolet and either bring back the #25 Chevrolet or the #5 Chevrolet following Johnson’s retirement, and that is certainly possible. But regardless, they will still have to replace a seven-time champion, and that naturally makes this seat one to keep an eye on.
Who will be Johnson’s heir apparent? There have been numerous names thrown around, and that will likely continue until a replacement is named.
Which five drivers will end up driving these five cars in the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series season, and which drivers will end up landing other open rides not discussed in this article? The upcoming Silly Season is slated to be quite a crazy one.