Daniel Ricciardo is set to join McLaren as the replacement for the Ferrari-bound Carlos Sainz Jr. in 2021. Who will replace him at Renault?
It seemed almost inevitable in September when Renault managing director Cyril Abiteboul discussed the future of the team beyond the 2020 Formula 1 season, and now it is official: Daniel Ricciardo will not be back with the organization in 2021.
It started in mid-May when four-time world champion Sebastian Vettel announced that he and Ferrari could not come to terms on a new deal for the 2021 season and that the 2020 season would be their sixth and final season together.
Ricciardo became the rumored replacement candidate for Vettel before McLaren’s Carlos Sainz Jr. entered the picture.
While it ended up being Sainz, a former Renault driver himself and ironically the driver who Ricciardo replaced, confirmed as the replacement for Vettel, Ricciardo did not end up staying put.
For the second time in three seasons, Ricciardo is set to replace Sainz, this time by making the move to McLaren.
Renault already have Esteban Ocon under contract through the 2021 season. But with Ricciardo set to leave the organization after just two years, who will be his replacement?
Here are five possibilities.
Possible Daniel Ricciardo replacements: Guanyu Zhou
As stated on the first slide, Cyril Abiteboul hinted last September that Renault wanted to go with a younger lineup for the 2021 Formula 1 season and that hiring the 23-year-old Esteban Ocon to replace the 32-year-old Nico Hulkenberg was only the first step.
With the 30-year-old Daniel Ricciardo in the team’s driver lineup to begin with, it seemed inevitable that this simply didn’t qualify as a “younger lineup”.
Here is what Abiteboul had to say at the time, according to RaceFans.
"“It was important when given the opportunity to seize the opportunity of a complete driver in Daniel last year and we don’t regret that at Renault. Just like right now we think it’s the right moment to start having some fresher blood. “I think it’s a trend actually you can see in several teams. We are also interested in young drivers with our academy. We hope and expect to have possibly one driver from that academy by 2021. So it’s also a shift of dynamic to start really welcoming young drivers in our line-up. “It’s not something that we would have been capable of doing two years ago but I think with more maturity in the team we can now envisage that. And that would be a good test to see if we are capable of also managing that because it’s a different type of management. Managing some who is 20, 22 or in his thirties, that’s different.”"
With Ricciardo officially out after the 2020 season, that makes Guanyu Zhou the frontrunner for his seat. Zhou has been a member of the Renault Sport Academy since last year, and he served as the development driver for Renault’s Formula 1 team last season.
The 21-year-old Chinese driver is set to enter his second season competing for UNI-Virtuosi Racing in Formula 2 this year after finishing in seventh place in the driver standings last year with five podium finishes in 22 races. He is the Renault Formula 1 team test driver for this year as well.
Zhou was promoted to Formula 2 ahead of the 2019 season after spending three seasons competing in the Formula 3 European Championship.
His stint in the Formula 3 European Championship came after he finished runner-up in the Italian F4 Championship in 2015. He finished in a career-high eighth place in the driver standings in the 2017 and 2018 seasons, winning two races during the latter.
But if Renault opt to go for a young driver other than Zhou, who might that be?
Possible Daniel Ricciardo replacements: Christian Lundgaard
Even before Daniel Ricciardo announced that he would be leaving Renault for McLaren next year, Cyril Abiteboul stated that Christian Lundgaard would be among his options to replace the 30-year-old Australian.
Here is what he had to say about the matter back in March, according to Autosport.
"“We need to keep this in mind, as we created this academy in 2016 with the goal of having a driver graduate to F1 in 2021. Now 2021 is coming, we have to acknowledge it. Typically, there’s Christian Lundgaard. He’s an option among others: he’s got his F2 season to do, we’ve got our own season to do with Daniel.”"
Lundgaard, like Guanyu Zhou, is a member of the Renault Sport Academy, and he has been one for more than three years. He made his Formula 2 debut late last season competing for Trident and competed in two races for the team.
The 18-year-old Dane is set to compete full-time in Formula 2 for the first time this year for ART Grand Prix after just one season in the Formula 3 Championship, in which he finished in sixth place in the driver standings with one victory and an additional second place finish in 16 races.
Lundgaard won the SMP F4 Championship and the F4 Spanish Championship back in 2017 before going on to finish runner-up in Formula Renault Eurocup the following year.
But if Renault opt not to go with a young driver, especially with the coronavirus pandemic limiting how long the 2020 season will be, who might they select to replace the Honey Badger?
Possible Daniel Ricciardo replacements: Sebastian Vettel
After all the shifts at Ferrari, McLaren and Renault, there is only one driver who currently competes for any one of these three teams who does not have a contract to compete somewhere next year, and that is four-time Formula 1 world champion Sebastian Vettel.
It had long been speculated that the 2020 season would be Vettel’s final season Ferrari, despite the team stating that they wanted to retain him for the 2021 season, and his fate was pretty much sealed when he was offered a deal he reportedly referred to as a “joke”.
The 32-year-old German had been linked to McLaren over the offseason even before his Ferrari departure had been confirmed, but that door quickly shut by Daniel Ricciardo making the move from Renault to the Woking-based team.
In fact, Ricciardo was confirmed as Carlos Sainz Jr.’s replacement at McLaren even before Ferrari made their Sainz signing official.
Vettel does have a few possibilities, aside of retirement, for next season, and Renault could end up being one of them. According to what managing director Cyril Abiteboul has stated on numerous occasions, they are looking for a younger driver to pair alongside Esteban Ocon next year, but he admitted back in March that Vettel would be an attractive option.
Now Vettel is officially available. Here is what Abiteboul had to say, according to Autosport.
"“I don’t want to say no, as [Vettel] is a great driver, and a great champion. We worked together on the engine side and we won together. [But] I rather aspire to work with tomorrow’s drivers than yesterday’s. It really is very difficult to sum it up like that, so please don’t sum it up like that about Sebastian. Still, we also have a driver academy, with drivers who might come out of it in 2021 or 2022.”"
So it’s not likely, but depending on how much those young driver are able to progress in a limited season of Formula 2, who knows?
Even if it’s not Vettel, could Renault turn to the past?
Possible Daniel Ricciardo replacements: Nico Hulkenberg
The most recent driver to leave Renault could end up being the teammate to the driver who replaced him. Esteban Ocon was confirmed as Nico Hulkenberg’s replacement on a two-year deal beginning in the 2020 season, which left Hulkenberg without a ride this year.
The 32-year-old German has not been shy about his desire to be back competing in Formula 1, and this may be the perfect opportunity with Daniel Ricciardo no longer in the team’s lineup for next year.
One of the main reasons why Renault went with Ocon instead of Hulkenberg, who won the unofficial “best of the rest” driver title in the 2018 season, was his age. Cyril Abiteboul has stated multiple times that the team are looking toward the future with their lineup choices.
But that exact logic could prompt them to move in the opposite direction next year.
With the season set to be shortened as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, perhaps it would be smarter to hire a familiar driver in Hulkenberg for at least one season instead of rushing a Formula 2 driver up the ladder to pair with a young Ocon.
They already have a driver in Ocon who they can build around for the future, and he hasn’t even been able to make his team debut yet due to the pandemic. Why not add at least some element of stability for next year?
Possible Daniel Ricciardo replacements: Fernando Alonso
It was inevitable that two-time Formula 1 world champion Fernando Alonso would be linked to the team with which he has already had two stints upon the opening of one of their two seats.
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Alonso drove for Renault from 2003 to 2006 and then again in 2008 and 2009, and he earned 16 of his 32 Grand Prix victories during those years. He also won both of his world titles during those years.
While he retired from Formula 1 following the 2018 season after disappointing four-year stint with McLaren, he announced ahead of the 2019 season finale that he was open to returning to the sport in 2021, since the 2020 grid had already been solidified.
He is on record as saying that he only wants to return if he can be in a competitive car, but recent rumors have emerged that he could end up with Renault, one of the sport’s mid-pack teams, with Formula 1 owners Liberty Media paying a huge amount of what would be one of Formula 1’s most expensive driver contracts.
Would Alonso take that deal just to be back in Formula 1? Both of Ferrari’s seats are full, both of McLaren’s seats are full and he is not on the radars of Mercedes or Red Bull Racing.
If he doesn’t return to Renault in 2021, suffice it to say that we have probably seen the last of him in Formula 1.
Who will end up replacing Daniel Ricciardo at Renault ahead of the 2021 Formula 1 season? Will the team look to one of their young drivers, will they look to one of their former drivers or will they give Sebastian Vettel a new home?