The 2021 NASCAR Cup Series season is off to a unique start with winners we didn’t expect, drivers we didn’t plan on seeing this high in the standings and surprise drivers in the bottom half of the standings.
Three races into the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series season, and we have already seen some interesting drivers at the top of the playoff picture. Michael McDowell, Christopher Bell and William Byron are the three winners so far this season. Who had that on their predictions board to start the year?
But how about other surprises inside the top 16 in the point standings? Ryan Preece, Cole Custer, Chris Buescher and Bubba Wallace each hold provisional spots in the playoffs. Three of those four drivers have never made the playoffs, with Custer making it in after his surprise win at Kentucky Speedway as a rookie last year.
This comes at the expense of drivers including but not limited to Alex Bowman and Kyle Busch, as well as several others who made the playoffs last year.
Obviously, it is way too early in the season to predict which 16 drivers will be in the playoffs and who will be out. But as we enter our first ordinary 1.5-mile intermediate track of the season this weekend with Las Vegas Motor Speedway and prepare for many short tracks and road courses on the schedule, should some drivers who are capable of earning a playoff spot be in a panic?
In this article, we look at five drivers who may be in the early danger zone.
Drivers who should panic: #1 – Matt DiBenedetto
- 34th in points with 14
- 53 points behind the cut line
Three races into the 2021 season and Matt DiBenedetto is not off to a good start. Finishes of 33rd, 37th and 28th place have put him down in 34th in the point standings.
It has been a lot of bad luck, though; let’s admit that. Getting caught with nowhere to go in the “Big One” in the Daytona 500, blowing a right rear tire and then cutting a brake line at the Daytona International Speedway road course and sustaining minor damage at Homestead-Miami Speedway from Ross Chastain have played a huge role in this misfortune.
But this still does not look good, considering DiBenedetto made the playoffs last season. He sits behind everybody except for StarCom Racing’s Quin Houff among full-time drivers, including three Rick Ware Racing drivers, Jamie McMurray, who only competed in the Daytona 500, and Front Row Motorsports rookie Anthony Alfredo.
He is already about one race behind Bubba Wallace, who currently holds the final playoff spot, in points. I’d be panicking about making the playoffs right now if I’m Guido — same with Leonard Wood.
As for Roger Penske? I wouldn’t be panicking specifically. I’d be looking forward to 2022 because the Wood Brothers Racing ride is already set to go to Austin Cindric, and I still have time to assess whether or not DiBenedetto deserves a shot with my team. But on the Penske side, there is one driver who should be panicking.
Drivers who should panic: #2 – Ryan Blaney
- 24th in points with 45
- 22 points behind the cut line
Remember when I said during the 2020 playoffs that after his surprise exit in the round of 16, 2021 would be a put up or shut up year? Right now, Ryan Blaney is still not putting up good enough stats.
This is kind of similar to the misfortunate which Matt DiBenedetto has endured, as Blaney was also involved in the Daytona 500 “Big One” on lap 15.
Making contact with Aric Almirola at Homestead-Miami Speedway led to a 29th place finish there as well. He has had somewhat of a positive though, finishing in 15th at the Daytona International Speedway road course after his heartbreak there in the final lap of the Busch Clash.
While his cutoff gap isn’t really that big of a deal yet, Blaney could end up in a situation where it comes down to the final regular season race for him to get in.
While he isn’t in a contract year, this is a season in which I expect him to have a multi-win season. Not just a superspeedway win, but a “prove it” type of win on an intermediate track or a short track, something he hasn’t yet earned in his Cup Series career.
He’s in a Team Penske car, and at Team Penske, you’re expected to be “Penske Perfect”. He should be expected to make it far in the playoffs, especially since his teammates are former champions regulars in the Championship 4. Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski currently sit in third and 10th place in the point standings, respectively.
Drivers who should panic: #3 – Aric Almirola
- 26th in points with 40
- 27 points behind the cut line
Aric Almirola is in a similar situation to that of Ryan Blaney throughout the 2021 season.
He was involved in the “Big One” in the Daytona 500 on lap 15, he had a mediocre day at the Daytona International Speedway road course to finish in 20th place, and he had contact with Blaney at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
The contact with Blaney could have been worse, but the damage was enough to put both drivers multiple laps down.
This kind of a slow start is uncharacteristic for Almirola. In the last three years to start the season, the #10 Smithfield Ford has been easily inside the top 16 in points through three races. He’s even spent time at the front over the last few seasons, most notably with 36 laps led at Atlanta Motor Speedway in 2019.
After this year’s Bluegreen Vacations Duel win, I expected a lot of motivation out of Almirola, enough for him to be able to consistently execute and finish in the top five or top 10, perhaps even with multiple wins.
But of his 40 points so far this season, 10 are thanks to his Duel win. Without that, he would be sitting in a 29th place tie in the point standings with Jamie McMurray, who only competed in the Daytona 500.
Success hasn’t happened yet for Almirola, and I’m shocked. This team has had a big chance to greatly improve since Almirola took over for Danica Patrick in 2018. They have improved in great Stewart-Haas Racing equipment, but the execution still hasn’t been there. It was there in 2018 at Talladega Superspeedway when he had enough fuel to pass Kurt Busch on the final lap and win, but aside from that, it hasn’t been.
Drivers who should panic: #4 – Erik Jones
- 28th in points with 34
- 33 points behind the cut line
I fully understand that Richard Petty Motorsports are not up to par with teams such as Joe Gibbs Racing, Team Penske or Hendrick Motorsports. Still, I expected Erik Jones to be regularly putting up top 25, if not top 20, performances.
You’re probably thinking, “Why were you expecting that?” Easy, because Jones knows how to put a car in victory lane. Whether it be a 550-horsepower high downforce car or a 750-horsepower low downforce car, Jones knows how to win.
Plus, I believe that he is a better driver than the former driver of the #43 Chevrolet, Bubba Wallace, and not just stat-wise, but in his all-around driving abilities.
Wallace finished the 2020 season in Richard Petty’s machine in 22nd place in the point standings, a huge improvement over the previous two seasons when he finished in 28th. With what Jones has done, I had been expecting higher than 22nd, but right now, I do not see it.
The “Big One” on lap 15 of the Daytona 500 put him in 39th place, but he rebounded the following week with a 14th place finish at the Daytona International Speedway road course after getting through all the chaos.
But then he recorded a 27th place finish at Homestead-Miami Speedway. It wasn’t surprising to see him struggle there though, as he has only finished inside the top 20 once in five starts.
Speaking with Jones last month during Daytona 500 media availabilities, he said that Richard Petty Motorsports had done a lot to strengthen their organization and performance. He claimed that “the trend is going in the right direction.” Erik, I’m sorry to tell you, but that arrow is pointing down.
If they want to turn it around and do better than 22nd place, the time is now.
Drivers who should panic: #5 – Bubba Wallace
- 15th place tie in points with 72
- 2 points above the cut line
Hold up, what?
Yes, that is correct, I put a driver in the playoffs in a panic situation, and yes, it’s this guy.
Bubba Wallace may be in a 15th place tie in the point standings right now, but 23XI Racing’s driver may be the luckiest driver in a provisional playoff spot.
This has to do with a combination of three things. One, the nine points he scored with a second place finish in his Bluegreen Vacations Duel. Two, the 12 stage points he earned in this year’s Daytona 500. And three, the fact that he has been beating drivers who should be faster than he is in the #23 Toyota, even with the team’s technical alliance with Joe Gibbs Racing.
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In the Daytona 500, he beat Kurt Busch, Martin Truex Jr., William Byron, Aric Almirola, Ryan Blaney and Alex Bowman among others, thanks to avoiding the “Big One” and finishing in 17th place despite being involved in the fiery last-lap accident.
At the Daytona International Speedway road course, he finished in 26th place, taking advantage of mistakes from drivers such as Kyle Larson, William Byron, Kyle Busch and Matt DiBenedetto. And in last Sunday’s race at Homestead-Miami Speedway, he secured a 22nd place finish, holding off Cole Custer after Custer had a tire go down late, and beating Joey Logano, DiBenedetto, Blaney and Almirola as well.
Let’s compare him to a similar driver who doesn’t have a win and is currently in a provisional playoff spot: Ryan Preece.
Why should Preece not be in a panic right now? Because Preece is actually performing! He has recorded three straight lead-lap finishes, including two top 10 results, to start the season. I would not be panicking right now if I were Preece.
But Wallace? Yes, I would be panicking, especially given the fact that drivers such as Bowman and Kyle Busch are breathing down my neck for that final playoff spot.
Another reason why is the answer to this question: who is the team owner? Michael Jeffrey Jordan, basketball’s GOAT. And what has the message been from MJ, who signs the checks at 23XI Racing for Wallace? “There’s no more hanging out in the back” and “We don’t sign checks for losers.”
As a wise man once said, “It’s not about how you start; it’s how you finish.”