Since Lewis Hamilton lost the Formula 1 world championship to Max Verstappen amid much controversy, there have been rumors of him quitting racing altogether.
We are less than two weeks removed from Max Verstappen’s thrilling but controversial Abu Dhabi Grand Prix win over Lewis Hamilton. The two drivers entered the 2021 Formula 1 season’s final race tied for the lead in the driver standings, something that had only happened once before in Formula 1 history, and they had won 17 of the season’s first 21 races.
Verstappen chased his rival for most of the day until a late safety car brought the field back together for one last racing lap. Some savvy decision-making by Red Bull, combined with a few key strategic mistakes by Mercedes, gave him the win.
Race officials had made it clear throughout the weekend that they would do everything they could to ensure the championship was decided on track. And they did so, giving us an epic final-lap battle between the legend and the 24-year-old upstart.
But since the race’s end, Mercedes and their supporters have chosen to focus on a single decision made by race director Michael Masi: to allow only the lapped cars between Hamilton and Verstappen to clear the safety car before a final lap of racing.
There have even been rumors of Hamilton walking away from Formula 1 altogether as a result of this outcome. Hamilton has discussed quitting Formula 1 before, but this time, could things turn out differently? Should he walk away, Mercedes will have a huge decision to make in naming a replacement.
George Russell is slated to be in a Silver Arrow for his first full season and would benefit from a veteran presence. But the young Brit already has 60 starts and a podium to his name, so he may be ready to take on the lead role for Formula 1’s top team.
While there probably isn’t anyone who can replace what Hamilton brings in terms of inspiring youngsters across the world and standing at the front of important social causes — and in terms of coming close to matching his driving skills — someone is going to have to fill that seat if he walks away.
Here are five possibilities.
Possible Lewis Hamilton replacements: No. 1 – Valtteri Bottas
Mercedes showed throughout the 2021 season, and particularly in the title-deciding race, their tendency to lean heavily towards the safe and by-the-book choice. The smoothest transition would come by bringing back Valtteri Bottas.
He spent the last five seasons as Lewis Hamilton’s sidekick but is set to move to Alfa Romeo for the 2022 season after being supplanted by George Russell. He would bring the obvious: experience and familiarity with team and machine, plus the earned respect of the Mercedes organization.
Every driver at that level must have the confidence to believe they can be champion, and should Bottas get a reprieve and be put back in a contending car for next season, it should certainly energize and motivate him to challenge for a world championship.
But while Bottas seemed like a willing, although not always enthusiastic, clear number two to Hamilton, he may not be so eager to serve in that same role opposite the 23-year-old Russell.
Mercedes would have to work something out with Alfa Romeo, but given how closely the two worked together to get Bottas to his new team, this seems like a nonexistent concern.
Alfa Romeo would then have a seat to fill and could bring Antonio Giovanazzi back from Formula E, or possibly even elevate Mick Schumacher from his currently hopeless situation at Haas.
Bottas doesn’t seem like a man of needless pride, but he could decide to remain with Alfa Romeo and scorn the team that took him out of a championship-caliber car and sent him down to pit lane’s barrio. In that case, they could turn to another driver already on the grid.
Possible Lewis Hamilton replacements: No. 2 – Esteban Ocon
Not only was Esteban Ocon a part of the Mercedes Junior Team until joining Renault – now Alpine – in 2020, but he was one of just two drivers (Daniel Ricciardo was the other) to win a race this past season in something other than a Mercedes or a Red Bull.
He drove for Manor in his half-rookie season in 2016 before moving to Force India, where his stint was mostly memorable for on-track incidents with teammate Sergio Perez.
After serving as Mercedes’ reserve driver in 2019, Ocon jumped to Renault and has impressed from the midfield over the last two seasons. He also brings a measure of familiarity with Mercedes personnel and equipment, although not as recent as that of Bottas.
Hiring Ocon would give us the spectacle of watching him battle his former teammate/nemesis Perez at the front of the field, or perhaps engage in a disastrous battle with his own teammate once again. Either way, it would make for a supremely entertaining season.
Ocon is under contract with Alpine until 2024, so they would likely exact a huge payment from Mercedes for this change. But drivers of Ocon’s caliber, youth, and experience – he’s just 25 but entering his sixth Formula 1 season – aren’t easy to come by at any price, and Mercedes have deep pockets.
He would also leave another vacant seat on the grid, one which would almost certainly be filled a driver who should also be on Mercedes’ short list.
Possible Lewis Hamilton replacements: No. 3 – Oscar Piastri
We can assume that 20-year old Australian Oscar Piastri, the 2020 Formula 3 and 2021 Formula 2 champion, will be in Formula 1 soon. It will most likely be with Alpine, where he currently serves as a reserve driver.
But should Mercedes step out of character and decide to make a bold move, they could do a lot worse than choosing Piastri.
The move would pair him with George Russell, who, like Piastri, was a rookie Formula 2 champion, and it would give Mercedes the youngest and maybe the boldest driver pairing on the grid. I think this move is about three steps too aggressive for Mercedes, but if I were Toto Wolff, I would certainly be considering Piastri.
A Formula 2 championship doesn’t guarantee success in Formula 1, but three of the past six Formula 2 title winners – Pierre Gasly, Charles Leclerc, and Russell – have certainly not disappointed in Formula 1. Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg also won Formula 2 titles before becoming Formula 1 champions.
Hiring Piastri would be out of character for the conservative eight-time reigning world constructor champions, but we can assume that Piastri will be in a Formula 1 car at some point in the next season or two anyway. Mercedes could do worse than having two recent Formula 2 champions, aged 23 and 20, set to drive them to another decade of dominance.
But he’s not the only young Formula 2 champion chomping at the bit to get into a Formula 1 car.
Possible Lewis Hamilton replacements: No. 4 – Nyck de Vries
The oldest driver on this list, aside from Valtteri Bottas, is 26-year-old Nyck de Vries, who won the 2019 Formula 2 championship as well as the 2020-21 Formula E championship. That pedigree enough should earn him a look by Mercedes.
He has also won karting and Formula Renault titles and has been driving for Mercedes’ Formula E team for the last two years. That previous success, combined with his familiarity with the Mercedes racing program, makes him a solid if uninspiring choice.
I’m not sure how he would fit with George Russell, whereas Lewis Hamilton would be the clear number one driver if he returns.
If Mercedes go with a rookie, he would logically take second seat to Russell. But despite his lack of Formula 1 race experience, de Vries is unquestionably accomplished and talented. Russell’s three seasons in Formula 1 might not quite mark him as an elder statesman to a driver three years his senior.
But Mercedes have the strong infrastructure that comes along with being dominant in Formula 1 for nearly a decade, and they undoubtedly have the human resources to make both de Vries and Russell both feel welcomed, comfortable, and valued. And Mercedes certainly have the leadership and material resources to make them both successful.
None of these choices are terribly surprising, but if Mercedes wish to make a headline-grabbing move that would also ring very popular for racing fans, they’d need some help from the very folks they blame for their current predicament: the FIA.
Possible Lewis Hamilton replacements: No. 5 – Colton Herta
There have only been two American world champions in 72 seasons of Formula 1 racing: Phil Hill in 1961 and Mario Andretti in 1978. Mario’s son Michael ran just one disappointing season in Formula 1 but was one of the most successful IndyCar drivers ever. Since his retirement, he has grown Andretti Autosport into one of the most successful racing organizations ever.
During this past season, Andretti was in negotiations to buy Alfa Romeo until issues over control of the team scuttled the deal. Had they managed to buy their way into Formula 1, they almost certainly would have introduced the first American driver to the grid since Alexander Rossi in 2015.
Colton Herta, at 21, would be the second-youngest driver on next year’s Formula 1 grid – by six weeks to Yuki Tsunoda – but he has won six IndyCar races in his first three seasons. He is set to return to Andretti’s IndyCar program in 2022 alongside Formula 1 veterans Rossi and Romain Grosjean.
He should do his best to absorb whatever lessons those two have for him, because with U.S.-based fan support growing, it won’t be too long before there is pressure to get an American driver back into Formula 1.
Herta would be the obvious choice for Andretti, but he would be an unorthodox one for Mercedes, who have never employed an American driver. His hiring would also be very helpful in repairing some of the PR damage this year’s controversy and Mercedes’ reaction have caused, but it wouldn’t come without its major obstacles.
Herta lacks the Super License points to qualify him for a Formula 1 seat, so he would need intervention from the FIA to change the IndyCar point allotments or determine that “circumstances outside [his] control or reasons of force majeure” prevented him from earning the necessary 40 points.
It’s more likely that Herta will have to finish in third place or higher in the upcoming IndyCar season standings to get himself the Super License, but if Mercedes still think the FIA owe them a favor for what happened in Abu Dhabi, maybe they can lobby for a change or exemption.
They certainly haven’t been shy about that lately.