The 33-car entry list for the 106th running of the Indy 500 is finally set. Here’s our way-too-early prediction for the starting lineup of IndyCar’s biggest race.
Following Thursday’s announcement, it has finally been confirmed that the 106th running of the Indy 500, the sixth of 17 races on the 2022 IndyCar schedule, will not be the first Indy 500 since 1947 to feature fewer than 33 cars.
In an effort involving Cusick Motorsports and DragonSpeed (as well as A.J. Foyt Enterprises), three-time Indy 500 starter Stefan Wilson is set to drive the #25 Chevrolet.
This entry is one of only seven cars on the entry list for this year’s running of the 200-lap race around the four-turn, 2.5-mile (4.023-kilometer) Indianapolis Motor Speedway oval that is not a full-time entry.
So how will the starting lineup look?
With 33 cars on the entry list, there is a one in 8.68 undecillion of this list being exactly correct. But let’s save the precision for qualifying day and get started with our predictions.
NOTE: (R) denotes Indy 500 rookie, not necessarily IndyCar rookie. This is not the official Indy 500 lineup.
Indy 500 qualifying – Fast Six shootout
1. Scott Dixon, #9 Chip Ganassi Racing Honda
If Chip Ganassi Racing’s pace in the test was anything to go by, look for Scott Dixon to take his fifth Indy 500 pole and fourth in eight years.
2. Ed Carpenter, #33 Ed Carpenter Racing Chevrolet
Few things are more certain than Ed Carpenter and Ed Carpenter Racing dominating Indy 500 qualifying. Look for a sixth front row start in 10 years for the hometown hero.
3. Rinus VeeKay, #21 Ed Carpenter Racing Chevrolet
The #21 Chevrolet has started in the top nine for eight straight Indy 500s. No other car is on a streak of more than two. In two starts, Rinus VeeKay has started no worse than fourth place.
4. Alex Palou, #10 Chip Ganassi Racing Honda
In two starts, Alex Palou has not started lower than seventh place. But surely his focus will be more on race day and finishing one spot higher than he did last year.
5. Josef Newgarden, #2 Team Penske Chevrolet
After two years of struggling, Team Penske seem to be on the right track with their superspeedway speed. Josef Newgarden should benefit as he looks to add the one thing missing from his IndyCar resume.
6. Will Power, #12 Team Penske Chevrolet
Will Power almost not making it into the Indy 500 last year should be a distant memory by the time the green flag flies.
Indy 500 qualifying – Fast 12 shootout
7. Colton Herta, #26 Andretti Autosport with Curb-Agajanian Honda
Andretti Autosport may have appeared a bit behind in terms of superspeedway pace, but Colton Herta is known for pushing the limits and putting up big numbers in Indy 500 qualifying.
8. Scott McLaughlin, #3 Team Penske Chevrolet
Scott McLaughlin may not have been known as an oval driver when he entered IndyCar, but he has quickly changed that narrative with some impressive results.
9. Tony Kanaan, #1 Chip Ganassi Racing Honda
For the first time, the Indy 500 is the only IndyCar race on Tony Kanaan’s schedule. His focus will be at an all-time high, especially after last year’s disappointment.
10. Marcus Ericsson, #8 Chip Ganassi Racing Honda
Marcus Ericsson has steadily progressed in terms of his oval racing skills, and Chip Ganassi Racing’s speed has certainly made the transition easier.
11. Alexander Rossi, #27 Andretti Autosport Honda
In what could be Alexander Rossi’s final Indy 500 start for Andretti Autosport, could he find himself starting in the same spot where he started as a rookie?
12. Takuma Sato, #51 Dale Coyne Racing with Rick Ware Racing Honda
Dale Coyne Racing always seem to show well in Indy 500 qualifying with at least one of their cars. Having a two-time winner this year should help continue that trend.
Indy 500 qualifying – Rows 5 and 6 (13th to 18th)
13. Pato O’Ward, #5 Arrow McLaren SP Chevrolet
Arrow McLaren SP haven’t been known for their Indy 500 qualifying speed, but expect them to give Pato O’Ward a car capable of winning the race.
14. Conor Daly, #20 Ed Carpenter Racing Chevrolet
Nobody led more laps in last year’s Indy 500 than Conor Daly, only for him to be derailed by a flying tire. He is well-positioned to have similar success in 2022.
15. Helio Castroneves, #06 Meyer Shank Racing Honda
Just how quick will Meyer Shank Racing be at Indy as the defending race winners? Regardless of qualifying pace, look for Helio Castroneves to challenge for a record-breaking fifth Indy 500 win.
16. Felix Rosenqvist, #7 Arrow McLaren SP Chevrolet
Despite a lack of results since joining Arrow McLaren SP last year, Felix Rosenqvist is an early dark horse Indy 500 candidate after taking pole at Texas Motor Speedway.
17. Simon Pagenaud, #60 Meyer Shank Racing Honda
Simon Pagenaud hasn’t started higher than row nine since he won the Indy 500 from the pole position in 2019. That should change following his move to Meyer Shank Racing.
18. Jimmie Johnson (R), #48 Chip Ganassi Racing Honda
“Jimmie Johnson Mania” at the Indy 500 proves to be legitimate after he backs up his sixth place finish in his IndyCar oval debut with a solid row six qualifying effort.
Indy 500 qualifying – Rows 7 and 8 (19th to 24th)
19. Romain Grosjean (R), #28 Andretti Autosport Honda
After making his oval debut in last year’s race at Gateway, Romain Grosjean was knocked out early at Texas Motor Speedway with an engine issue back in March. Indy should be his first true superspeedway test.
20. Juan Pablo Montoya, #6 Arrow McLaren SP Chevrolet
Despite a lackluster qualifying effort for Arrow McLaren SP last year, Juan Pablo Montoya proved he can still get around the speedway on race day.
21. Marco Andretti, #98 Andretti Herta Autosport w/Marco and Curb-Agajanian Honda
Marco Andretti finally won another race last year, albeit in SRX. Could that breakthrough take some of the pressure off of him as he prepares for a second one-off Indy 500 effort?
22. Graham Rahal, #15 Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing Honda
If Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing’s qualifying pace at Texas Motor Speedway is anything to go by, they have some work to do before Indy 500 qualifying.
23. Callum Ilott (R), #77 Juncos Hollinger Racing Chevrolet
Juncos Hollinger Racing have been committed to their one entry for Callum Ilott, and they are poised to surprise quite a few people following some recent gains.
24. Santino Ferrucci, #23 Dreyer & Reinbold Racing Chevrolet
Indy 500 qualifying hasn’t been a strength of Dreyer & Reinbold Racing. But in three Indy 500 starts, Santino Ferrucci has started no higher than 19th place, yet he has finished no lower than seventh.
Indy 500 qualifying – Rows 9 and 10 (25th to 30th)
25. Christian Lundgaard (R), #30 Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing Honda
With Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing seemingly lacking in oval qualifying pace, how much speed can Christian Lundgaard extract out of his car in his rookie Indy 500 attempt?
26. Kyle Kirkwood (R), #14 A.J. Foyt Enterprises Chevrolet
Even as a rookie, Kyle Kirkwood has gotten more out of his equipment than most would be able to. How high can he qualify in an A.J. Foyt Enterprises entry?
27. Jack Harvey, #45 Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing Honda
Indy 500 qualifying has never been a strength of Jack Harvey, even last year when his Meyer Shank Racing teammate won the race.
28. David Malukas (R), #18 Dale Coyne Racing with HMD Motorsports Honda
David Malukas has shown potential in limited IndyCar starts, but as any veteran will tell him, there is nothing quite like that first four-lap Indy 500 qualifying.
29. Devlin DeFrancesco (R), #29 Andretti Steinbrenner Autosport Honda
Devlin DeFrancesco has struggled in his rookie season, and there is little reason to believe that won’t continue in the biggest race of the year.
30. J.R. Hildebrand, #11 A.J. Foyt Enterprises, Chevrolet
J.R. Hildebrand has always been a better racer than qualifier at Indy, and that figures to be true again in his second attempt with A.J. Foyt’s team.
Indy 500 qualifying – Row 11 (31st to 33rd)
31. Sage Karam, #24 Dreyer & Reinbold Racing Chevrolet
The last time Sage Karam didn’t start an Indy 500 in 31st place was in 2018. At that point, 17 of the other 32 drivers on this year’s Indy 500 entry list hadn’t yet made their IndyCar debuts. Lock it in.
32. Dalton Kellett, #4 A.J. Foyt Enterprises, Chevrolet
If not for a qualifying loophole last year, which he technically could’ve exploited to qualify for the race with any speed above 0 miles per hour, Dalton Kellett may have been at risk of not making the field. Fortunately, he won’t have that to worry about this year.
33. Stefan Wilson, #25 DragonSpeed/Cusick Motorsports Chevrolet
This entry has long seemed to be an entry designed to fill the field more than an entry aimed at true performance and speed, at least for 2022. But at least that’s what it will do.
Qualifying for the 106th running of the Indy 500 is scheduled to take place on Saturday, May 21 and Sunday, May 22. What will the official 33-car starting lineup look like? Keep in mind, with 33 entries, you are statistically roughly 941 quadrillion times more likely to pick a perfect March Madness bracket than a perfect Indy 500 lineup.
The race itself is scheduled to take place on Memorial Day Sunday, May 29.