Three drivers who have regularly qualified for the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs are at serious risk of missing the cut halfway through the 2022 regular season.
An exciting race at Kansas Speedway wrapped up the first half of the 26-race 2022 NASCAR Cup Series regular season two Sundays ago, with 23XI Racing’s Kurt Busch passing Hendrick Motorsports’ Kyle Larson for the win in the closing laps of the AdventHealth 400.
Busch didn’t officially clinch a playoff spot, since there could still be more than 16 different regular season winners (there have been 11 in 13 races already, and there are still 13 regular season races remaining).
But the win was much needed for the 2004 series champion in terms of his playoff eligibility, considering the fact that he had been mired down in 22nd place in the point standings beforehand.
However, other series veterans and playoff regulars still find themselves in precarious positions as it comes to getting into this year’s playoffs. Here are three who could be in trouble.
NASCAR drivers who could be in serious trouble: No. 1 – Kevin Harvick
Stewart-Haas Racing did get a win at Phoenix Raceway with Chase Briscoe back in March at Phoenix Raceway, but they still haven’t shown the speed that some of the Chevrolet and Toyota teams have shown this year.
As a byproduct of those struggles, Kevin Harvick’s surprising win drought, which goes all the way back to September 2020 when he earned a series-high ninth win of the year at Bristol Motor Speedway, is still intact.
Harvick sits in 11th place in the point standings through 13 races, but that only places him in 15th in the playoff picture, as the cut line currently sits between the 12th and 13th place drivers. There have already been four drivers from below it who have won, vaulting themselves above the cut line.
Last year, Harvick finished the regular season in ninth place in the standings and was also the 15th of 16 drivers to qualify, and he was seeded last in the first round of the postseason. The final driver to qualify on points finished in 11th.
With 13 regular season races remaining for more new winners to emerge, Harvick may need to either win or significantly improve his position in the standings to prevent the 2022 season from becoming his first without a playoff berth since 2009.
NASCAR drivers who could be in serious trouble: No. 2 – Aric Almirola
Sitting just below Kevin Harvick in the point standings is teammate Aric Almirola, who sits in 12th place but currently finds himself in the 16th and final spot in the playoff picture.
Almirola has qualified for the playoffs in all four of his seasons with Stewart-Haas Racing as the driver of the #10 Ford, and with the 2022 season being his final season in the NASCAR Cup Series, he is looking to make it a perfect five for five.
But that could prove to be a struggle.
Almirola has actually had a stronger start to the 2022 season than many anticipated. He started the season with three straight top six finishes, and simply by finishing in the top 10 in the first two races, he singlehandedly extended a streak that dates all the way back to 1974.
He is one of two drivers to finish all 13 races so far, and he has completed more miles on-track than anybody. His worst finish of 26th place is the best worst finish of any driver.
Yet he is still fighting for a playoff spot, and that fight will not get any easier. He has just a single top 10 finish in the 10 races that have taken place since his hot start to the year, and he sits just 11 points above the cut line.
Last year, Almirola qualified for the playoffs with an upset victory at New Hampshire Motor Speedway late in the regular season; he was nowhere near making the cut on points.
This year, he hasn’t had nearly the poor start he had last year, yet he still might need a victory to secure his spot.
NASCAR drivers who could be in serious trouble: No. 3 – Brad Keselowski
In his first season at RFK Racing as both a driver and a team co-owner, Brad Keselowski has struggled, to say the very least.
He got off to a solid start at Daytona International Speedway, winning his Bluegreen Vacations Duel qualifying race for the season-opening Daytona 500 and then leading the most laps in the Daytona 500 itself, but it has been a rough road since February.
He could only manage a ninth place finish in the “Great American Race”, though that result, coupled with his Duel result and stage points, were still enough to place him in a tie atop the point standings.
But in 12 races since then, he has not recorded another top 10 finish.
Making matters worse for Keselowski is the fact that he was issued a massive 100-point penalty following the race at Atlanta Motor Speedway, when teardown inspection revealed a major violation by the #6 team at the NASCAR R&D Center.
The penalty basically puts him in a must-win situation in order to qualify for the playoffs, and even with a win, that still wouldn’t guarantee him a playoff berth.
Even though he should surely get himself back into the top 30 in the point standings, which is a playoff requirement even for race winners, there could very well be more than 16 different regular season race winners, and if there are, Keselowski wouldn’t be in an ideal spot in the point standings to get in.
It is worth mentioning that even without the 100-point penalty, Keselowski would only be sitting in 19th place in the standings, so it’s not exactly like the 2012 series champion and the #6 team have been all that strong in 2022. Teammate Chris Buescher only sits in 21st (22nd without Keselowski’s penalty).
Keselowski hasn’t had a winless season since 2010, the first of his 12 seasons with Team Penske, and he hasn’t failed to qualify for the playoffs since 2013. But both of those streaks could end without an upset win at some point throughout the second half of the regular season.