Winning a NASCAR Cup Series race doesn’t necessarily lock a driver into the playoffs. Which five winners could be most at risk?
There are still eight races remaining in the 26-race 2022 NASCAR Cup Series regular season schedule, and 13 drivers have already found victory lane this year.
Regardless of how many regular season race winners there are, there are 16 playoff spots available. Considering the fact that there are 26 regular season races, this means that the playoff format is not necessarily a “win and in” format.
While it has proven to be a “win and in” format in the past, there could still be more than 16 regular season winners this season with eight races left on the regular season schedule.
The 16 playoff spots go to the regular season champion and the 15 drivers who rank next highest in wins, so the only drivers currently locked in are the five drivers who have won twice, as the regular season can produce no more than 13 multi-race winners.
So which race winners could be at risk?
Race winners who could be in trouble: No. 1 – Daniel Suarez
Among the eight drivers who have won just one race so far this season, Trackhouse Racing Team’s Daniel Suarez ranks lowest in the point standings.
Suarez, who entered the year without any victories, earned his first career victory at Sonoma Raceway. With three other top five finishes, he sits in 17th place in the point standings.
Suarez isn’t the lowest winner in points, as Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin sits in 20th place, but with two wins, Hamlin is locked into the postseason. So Suarez is currently in the worst position among winners, in the event that there are more than 16 before the regular season ends.
Race winners who could be in trouble: No. 2 – Chase Briscoe
Like Daniel Suarez, Stewart-Haas Racing’s Chase Briscoe entered the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series season without a win to his name. But it didn’t take him long to change that, as he won the season’s fourth race at Phoenix Raceway.
However, it has been somewhat of a struggle for the driver of the #14 Ford since then. While he has been in contention to win other races, specifically the dirt race at Bristol Motor Speedway and the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway, the results just haven’t been there.
He has just two top 10 finishes in 14 races since his victory, and that has dropped him to 16th place in the point standings. He has only finished higher than ninth once in this 14-race span, after starting the year with two top three finishes in four races.
Sitting in 16th place, Briscoe is the second lowest ranking single-race winner in the standings, and he is just two points ahead of Suarez in the lowest spot. If more winners emerge, Briscoe could find himself missing out on the postseason.
Stewart-Haas Racing have struggled to start the Gen 7 era, and right now, Briscoe is the only one of the team’s four drivers currently in the provisional playoff picture. Could all four of the drivers miss the postseason, even with Briscoe’s victory?
Race winners who could be in trouble: No. 3 – Kurt Busch
Sitting just two points ahead of Chase Briscoe in 15th place in the point standings is Kurt Busch, who is in his first season with 23XI Racing behind the wheel of the #45 Toyota.
Unlike Briscoe and Daniel Suarez, Busch had many wins to his name entering the 2022 season, though like those other two drivers, he entered the year seeking his first win with his current team.
Busch earned his first win with the Denny Hamlin and Michael Jordan-owned team at Kansas Speedway back in May.
Despite the fact that he is just four points ahead of Suarez, who sits in the worst position among the single-race winners, Busch’s points situation is much, much better than it was before he won.
Since that win, he has earned two more top three finishes at World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway and Nashville Superspeedway.
Overall, it has been an impressive first season at 23XI Racing for Busch, especially considering the continued struggles on the other side of the garage with Bubba Wallace and the #23 team. Wallace sits in 25th place in the standings without any finishes of higher than 10th since the Daytona 500.
Busch has already made the 2022 season his ninth straight winning season, and he is well on his way to making it his 10th straight season with a playoff berth. Or is he?
Race winners who could be in trouble: No. 4 – Austin Cindric
Team Penske rookie Austin Cindric started the first-time winner trend by winning the season-opening Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway, winning his first race behind the wheel of the #2 Ford as Brad Keselowski’s replacement at Roger Penske’s team.
Keselowski, despite being a superspeedway ace and a former Cup Series champion, never managed to win the “Great American Race” in 12 starts for “The Captain”.
Aside from the Daytona 500, however, it has been somewhat of a struggle for Cindric in his rookie year, and he is actually somewhat fortunate to find himself ahead of three other one-race winners in 14th place in the point standings.
He has just four other top 10 finishes this year, and three of them have come in the three road course races that have been contested thus far. His only other top 10 oval finish is a seventh place finish at Nashville Superspeedway.
He has been considerably behind teammates Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano throughout his rookie season, with Blaney sitting in second place in the point standings, despite not having any wins, and Logano sitting in sixth as one of just five drivers with multiple victories.
The positive for Cindric has been his performance as of late. He has actually climbed several spots in the standings with three consecutive top seven finishes after starting the year with just two top 10 finishes in 15 events.
Race winners who could be in trouble: No. 5 – Tyler Reddick
The fifth and most recent first-time winner of the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series is Richard Childress Racing’s Tyler Reddick, who finally broke through and earned his first victory this past Sunday afternoon by passing and holding off road course ace Chase Elliott at Road America.
Unlike fellow first-time winners Daniel Suarez, Chase Briscoe, and Austin Cindric, Reddick does already have a playoff appearance to his name, having qualified on points last year.
However, even with his first career victory this year, he may not be totally safe in terms of locking himself into the playoffs for the second straight year this season.
Reddick currently sits in 13th place in the point standings, putting ahead of four of the other seven single-race winners, but he sits just 21 points ahead of Suarez, the lowest of the eight, in 17th.
So a poor result or poor run of results could very well result in him dropping. If he drops and more new winners emerge, he could risk missing the postseason.
Will any of these five race winners miss the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs? If so, who will miss out? Could more than one of them miss out, or will all of them qualify to, once again, back up the semi-inaccurate “win and in” concept of the postseason format?