Several drivers who qualified for last year’s NASCAR Cup Series playoffs are at risk of not getting into this year’s postseason.
The first 18 races of the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series season have produced 13 different winners, as only five drivers have won more than once. Of these 13 winners, five had never won before, and of those five, four have never before been to the playoffs.
With eight races remaining on the regular season schedule, there is still a chance that at least one winner will be left out of the playoffs. Despite the “win and in” concept of the playoff format, there are 16 playoff spots available regardless of how many different regular season race winners there are.
Because there have been so many winners who did not qualify for last year’s playoffs, there will inevitably be several playoff drivers from last year who miss this year’s postseason.
Here are five playoff drivers from 2021 — plus two dark horses — who could be at risk of missing the postseason.
Playoff drivers in trouble: No. 1 – Brad Keselowski
RFK Racing’s Brad Keselowski is the most obvious candidate to miss this year’s playoffs after qualifying last year — and in each of the seven years before that. His first year as the driver of the #6 Ford and co-owner of the team has not gone according to plan.
Keselowski has just one top 10 finish since the Daytona 500, which he finished in a disappointing — yet season-best — ninth place after leading the most laps and winning his Duel qualifying race.
Additionally, he was issued a 100-point penalty after a violation was discovered during teardown inspection at the NASCAR R&D Center following the March race at Atlanta Motor Speedway.
Keselowski sits in 30th place in the point standings, so a win would make him playoff eligible. But even without the penalty, he would only sit in 24th, which is currently 16 spots below where the points cut line sits. Will his 11-year win streak come to an end in 2022? If it does, his eight-year playoff streak will as well.
Playoff drivers in trouble: No. 2 – Michael McDowell
Believe it or not, Front Row Motorsports’ Michael McDowell has quietly had a career year in his fifth season with the team, a team that has taken a clear step forward with the introduction of the Gen 7 car.
At the halfway mark of the season, the driver of the #34 Ford has already recorded seven top 10 finishes. His previous career-high for a full season was five, which he recorded last year.
McDowell has already led 38 laps this year, which is more than his single-season career-high of 33 from 2018. Additionally, his average finish is 16.6, which is nearly four positions better than his previous career-high of 20.5 from last year.
But because McDowell hasn’t won a race this year like he did last year when he won the season-opening Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway, he finds himself sitting well below the playoff cut line. With a top finish of third place in the race at Sonoma Raceway, McDowell sits in 21st in the point standings.
There are still several tracks at which McDowell could score an upset win, including this weekend’s pseudo-superspeedway race at Atlanta Motor Speedway, the regular season finale at Daytona International Speedway, and the two road course races at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course and Watkins Glen International.
If he can’t do that, however, a second consecutive — and career — playoff berth is all but out of the question for the 37-year-old Phoenix, Arizona native.
Playoff drivers in trouble: No. 3 – Aric Almirola
Last season, Stewart-Haas Racing’s Aric Almirola appeared slated to miss the playoffs for the first time in four seasons as the driver of the #10 Ford. However, he ended up vaulting himself into the playoff picture with a late regular season victory at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, and that was enough to keep his playoff streak alive.
This season, Almirola had a much stronger start, reeling off three consecutive top six finishes to open up the year. In fact, because he was the only driver to record top 10 finishes in both of the season’s first two races, he singlehandedly extended a streak that goes back all the way to the 1974 season.
But things haven’t gone smoothly for Almirola since that streak of top six finishes ended, as he has just two top 10 finishes in the 15 races that have been contested since then.
Almirola finds himself two spots below the playoff cut line, and his deficit to that cut line continues to grow. He sits in a respectable 12th place in the point standings, but because there have been six winners from below him in points, he sits in 18th in the playoff picture.
Despite the fact that he has had a much stronger overall start to the 2022 season than he did to the 2021 season, he could find himself in the same position as he was last year: needing a victory to secure a postseason berth. Will he make it five for five at Stewart-Haas Racing in the final season before he retires?
Playoff drivers in trouble: No. 4 – Kevin Harvick
Sitting just one position ahead of Aric Almirola in the point standings is teammate Kevin Harvick. Despite sitting in 11th place in the standings, Harvick finds himself below the playoff cut line.
Sitting in 17th place in the playoff picture, the driver of the #4 Ford is currently the highest positioned driver who would not be in the playoffs if they started today.
Harvick is coming off of his first winless season since 2009 last year, and halfway through the 2022 season, he is still seeking his first win since earning a career-high ninth and final victory of the 2020 season at Bristol Motor Speedway in September 2020.
Harvick hasn’t missed the playoffs since the 2009 season, but that could very well change in 2022 if he doesn’t find victory lane.
Interestingly, the 16th and final driver to qualify for last year’s playoffs was Richard Childress Racing’s Tyler Reddick, who finished the regular season in 11th place in the point standings. Harvick was the 15th driver to qualify, and he finished the regular season in ninth.
This year, an 11th place finish (without a win) probably won’t cut it, as the points cutoff currently sits below the eighth place driver — and there are still eight races remaining on the schedule in which more new winners could emerge.
Playoff drivers in trouble: No. 5 – Christopher Bell
That eighth place driver in the point standings is Joe Gibbs Racing’s Christopher Bell. Bell has had an under-the-radar strong season for Joe Gibbs Racing in his second year behind the wheel of the #20 Toyota, but it may very well not be enough for him to qualify for the playoffs for the second consecutive season.
Despite sitting in eighth place in the point standings with four top five finishes and 10 top 10 results, Bell is currently the 16th and final driver above the playoff cut line, as eight drivers below him have earned victories this year.
Bell has looked safe in the playoff picture throughout much of the regular season, but if there is another winner from below him — or if he drops in points — he would drop below that cut line.
Bell qualified for last year’s playoffs by earning his first career victory in the race at the Daytona International Speedway road course, and he may very well need a second career victory to qualify for this year’s postseason as well.
His best finish so far this season is a third place finish at Circuit of the Americas, though he lost a second place finish at Atlanta Motor Speedway due to a post-race penalty. After a rocky start which saw him record just one top 22 finish in the first five races, he has finished outside of the top nine just four times in 13 events.
Playoff drivers in trouble: Dark horse – Martin Truex Jr.
Martin Truex Jr. currently sits in seventh place in the point standings, but because eight drivers below him in points have found victory lane, he sits in 15th in the 16-driver playoff picture.
Truex, who recently confirmed that he plans to return for the 2023 season, hasn’t finished higher than fourth place in any individual race this year. The start of the Gen 7 era has been somewhat of a struggle for him and the #19 team.
If there are two more winners from below Truex in the standings, or if he experiences a significant drop in points, he could very well miss the playoffs for the first time since 2014.
Playoff drivers in trouble: Dark horse – Ryan Blaney
Ryan Blaney sits in second place in the point standings, but even he could be at risk if more winners emerge. Because there have been 13 winners already this year, the driver of the #12 Ford only sits in 14th in the provisional playoff picture.
With eight races remaining on the regular season schedule and thus eight more opportunities for new winners to emerge, he could very well drop further.
However, even without a victory, Blaney still has a chance to lock into the playoffs — and yes, he could do so even in the event that there are more than 16 winners.
Blaney sits 33 points behind points leader Chase Elliott, and whether the regular season points champion wins a race or not, he locks into the playoffs.
It’s hard to envision a driver whose top finish is third place winning the regular season championship, but it’s possible.
Which of these drivers will fail to qualify for this year’s playoffs, and how may will fail to do so?