If there are more than 16 regular season winners, we will see at least one winner miss the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs.
Joe Gibbs Racing’s Christopher Bell became the 14th different winner in the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series season, winning last Sunday afternoon’s race at New Hampshire Motor Speedway to get back to victory lane for the first time since February 2021.
There are still six races remaining in the 26-race regular season, opening up the possibility that there will be more than 16 regular season race winners for the first time. This would result in at least one of the winners failing to qualify for the playoffs, despite the “win and in” concept of the postseason.
Which winners are most at risk of missing the playoffs if there are indeed more than 16 winners before the regular season ends?
Winners most likely to miss the playoffs: No. 1 – Chase Briscoe
Chase Briscoe is currently the lowest positioned single-race winner in the NASCAR Cup Series point standings, sitting in 17th place, so in the event that more new winners emerge and a winner ends up missing the playoffs, he could very well be the one left on the outside looking in.
Things aren’t exactly trending in the right direction for Briscoe, who has just one finish of higher than ninth place in the 16 races that have been contested since he earned his first career victory at Phoenix Raceway back in mid-March. He has just four top 10 finishes all season and hasn’t finished higher than 13th in the last six races.
Notably, there are four drivers who sit higher than he does in the standings but haven’t yet won. If three more drivers who end up ahead of him in the standings win a race before the regular season ends — even if they are currently lower than Briscoe is — then Briscoe will need to jump at least one current winner in the standings in order to earn his first career playoff berth.
Winners most likely to miss the playoffs: No. 2 – Tyler Reddick
Richard Childress Racing’s Tyler Reddick sits just nine points ahead of Chase Briscoe in the point standings, making him the second lowest ranking single-race winner in the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series season.
But that isn’t the only reason why he could find himself one on the outside looking in, in the event that there are more than 16 different race winners in the regular season.
Aside from his maiden Cup Series victory at Road America earlier this month, Reddick hasn’t had the best of fortune so far this year, and among all the single-race winners, his average finish of 18.1 is the lowest. He has four DNFs and three other finishes of 30th place or worse. His win is his only top 15 finish in the last six races.
There is always a debate over how much off-track events play a role in on-track success. How much does the “distraction element” matter?
Shortly after earning his first career victory, which came just after Richard Childress Racing announced that they had picked up the option in his contract for 2023, Reddick announced that he had signed with 23XI Racing for the 2024 season.
Richard Childress Racing responded by saying that the timing of the announcement could not have been worse.
Reddick hasn’t finished higher than 21st place since this sequence of events, and if he can’t find consistency over the next six races, he may very well be denied a second consecutive playoff berth, despite having just won for the first time in his Cup Series career.
Winners most likely to miss the playoffs: No. 3 – Another upset winner
We could very well be in a position entering the regular season finale at Daytona International Speedway where an upset win doesn’t lock the winner into the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs.
Imagine the following scenario.
Ryan Blaney and Martin Truex Jr., who both sit in the top four in the point standings despite having not yet won a race in 2022, both finally win a race in the next few weeks, giving the regular season 16 different race winners heading into the final race before the four-round, 10-race postseason.
The lowest single-race winner in the point standings is Chase Briscoe in 17th place, and he sits 100 points ahead of Bubba Wallace in 24th.
Wallace secures the upset victory at Daytona International Speedway, a scenario which would ordinarily lock him into the playoffs.
However, there are now 17 different winners, and in this scenario, the lowest single-race winner in the point standings would miss the playoffs. In this case, that would be Wallace.
This is just one example. You can replace Bubba Wallace with a number of other drivers in this scenario, such as Erik Jones, Austin Dillon, Michael McDowell, Justin Haley, Chris Buescher, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Cole Custer, Harrison Burton, Brad Keselowski, Todd Gilliland, Ty Dillon, or even Corey LaJoie if he gets to the top 30 in points.
That winner still wouldn’t make the playoffs, as crazy as it may seem.