Without a deal for 2023, Kyle Busch remains the top free agent on the NASCAR Cup Series driver market. Where will he end up?
Several months after Kyle Busch made cryptic comments about his contract status with Joe Gibbs Racing for the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series season at Talladega Superspeedway, the current driver of the #18 Toyota is still without a deal to return to the team for what would be a 16th season next year.
While a return is certainly still possible, there are many who believe that Busch will be competing elsewhere in 2023, especially since what was once a promising sponsorship development recently fell through.
With that in mind, where will Busch end up next year? Here are five possibilities.
Possible Kyle Busch landing spots: No. 1 – Joe Gibbs Racing
We cannot ignore the obvious: there is still a chance that Kyle Busch will be back for what would be a 16th season behind the wheel of the #18 Toyota at Joe Gibbs Racing next year.
Joe Gibbs Racing and Toyota have admitted that there is no timetable on when they want to find a sponsor to replace M&M’s to keep Busch with the organization, and while that could technically translate to Busch shoring up his future elsewhere in the meantime, considering the fact that he has had discussions with other teams, Busch obviously wants to remain where he is.
The sport’s highest paid driver has even admitted that he would be willing to take a pay cut if it means staying behind the wheel of the #18 Toyota — and he might even be willing to take a pay cut just to sign a one-year deal, thus giving all parties involved more time to work out something for the long haul.
But there are still those who believe that Busch will end up elsewhere in 2023, as he has been in contact with other teams — despite the fact that Joe Gibbs Racing have indeed made him an offer. Where might elsewhere be?
Possible Kyle Busch landing spots: No. 2 – Stewart-Haas Racing
The most obvious option for Kyle Busch if he ends up leaving Joe Gibbs Racing at the end of the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series season had been Stewart-Haas Racing, as they were the lone established contender that had at least one seat without a confirmed driver for 2023.
Aric Almirola announced before the 2022 season began that the 2022 season would be his final season competing full-time in the Cup Series, leaving the #10 Ford without a confirmed driver for 2023. But Almirola has since announced that he will not be retiring, instead deciding to sign a multi-year extension.
That doesn’t necessarily mean that Stewart-Haas Racing is out of the picture.
Behind the wheel of the #41 Ford, Cole Custer continues to underperform. It has been more than two years since he has finished higher than ninth place in a race, and while Stewart-Haas Racing haven’t been at their best over those last two years, all three of their other drivers have managed to win during that span.
Stewart-Haas Racing executive Joe Custer is Cole’s father, which has led many to believe that he will indeed be back for a fourth season behind the wheel of the #41 Ford next year, but at some point, serious questions need to start being asked.
Busch has admitted that he has been in talks with other teams, and there is rumored to be a Ford team in the mix. You would be silly not to believe that Tony Stewart is absolutely licking his chops with the prospects of signing the two-time champion, especially given his tendency to take big swings in the past.
While the team have indicated that the plan is to bring back all four of their current drivers in 2023, they stopped short of formally confirming Custer’s return. In this day and age of silly season madness, anything shy of confirmation is effectively meaningless.
Possible Kyle Busch landing spots: No. 3 – Kaulig Racing
Not too long ago, it was reported that there had not been any contact between Kyle Busch and Kaulig Racing regarding a potential seat for the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series season.
It was then reported that Chevrolet had “entered the mix”.
If Chevrolet wasn’t previously in the mix, and Kaulig Racing wasn’t previously in the mix, the put two and two together: Matt Kaulig’s team is absolutely interested in bringing Busch on board for 2023.
It is expected that Kaulig Racing will keep Justin Haley behind the wheel of the #31 Chevrolet for another year, but their plans for the #16 Chevrolet are a lot less clear. They have also reportedly inquired about a potential third charter, but nothing has been announced.
Currently splitting time behind the wheel of the #16 Chevrolet are Noah Gragson, A.J. Allmendinger, and Daniel Hemric. Gragson competes full-time in the Xfinity Series for JR Motorsports and is set to join Petty GMS Motorsports for his first full-time Cup Series ride next year.
Allmendinger and Hemric, two former full-time Cup Series drivers with other teams, both compete full-time for Kaulig’s team in the Xfinity Series, and there is nothing to suggest that either will be promoted next year.
Kaulig Racing only made their Xfinity Series debut in 2016, but they ascended rapidly to become a perennial championship contender. They are not nearly as elite of a Cup presence yet as teams such as Joe Gibbs Racing or Stewart-Haas Racing, but the addition of an all-time great in Kyle Busch could lead to another rapid ascension.
They are set to make a driver announcement on Wednesday, October 5. Is Busch the subject of that announcement?
Possible Kyle Busch landing spots: No. 4 – 23XI Racing
While many have assumed that a departure from Joe Gibbs Racing would mean a departure from Toyota for Kyle Busch, that isn’t necessarily the case.
It’s clear that Busch’s preference for next year is to stay where he is, and that is clearly the preference for Joe Gibbs Racing and Toyota. But all sides know that that may not be possible.
However, this isn’t a scenario in which Busch has burnt bridges — or done something like denying a press release saying he has signed a contract.
A move to 23XI Racing could make sense for multiple reasons. The team have already confirmed that Tyler Reddick is set to join the organization in 2024, though they haven’t confirmed whether he will replace Kurt Busch or simply drive a third car. What he won’t do is replace Bubba Wallace, who recently signed a multi-year extension.
Given some recent comments made by Kurt Busch, it appears likely that Reddick will replace the 2004 series champion.
However, recent health concerns following a qualifying crash at Pocono Raceway could make Kurt consider even returning in 2023. Could his younger brother’s career uncertainty play a role in that decision?
Even so, would Kyle really replace his brother just to keep Reddick’s seat warm for a year?
At the end of the day, a third car, and presumably a third charter, might be needed for 23XI Racing to pull this off, and after Denny Hamlin announced earlier this year that he would be pausing the team’s growth until NASCAR’s business model changes, that is far from a sure thing.
But what is a sure thing is that the Hamlin and Michael Jordan-owned team do eventually want to expand, and if Kyle Busch is available, the “business model changes” can probably take a backseat. In fact, like Kaulig Racing, the team have reportedly inquired about a third charter, though there is nothing to announce.
Let’s also not forget the fact that Busch’s own team, Kyle Busch Motorsports, is aligned with Toyota, so a manufacturer switch isn’t as simple as it would be for literally any other driver. Busch aligning himself with another manufacturer, whether that be Ford or Chevrolet, would likely also carry a massive price tag to get all his trucks switched over.
Staying with Toyota remains the simplest option, even if it means moving to a new team.
Possible Kyle Busch landing spots: No. 5 – Richard Childress Racing
The list of reasons why Kyle Busch joining Richard Childress Racing is practically unthinkable might very well be endless, but the Chevrolet organization has recently emerged as a serious possibility as Busch and Richard Childress have reportedly put past — let’s just say “situations” — behind them.
Richard Childress Racing don’t currently have any open seats for 2023, with Austin Dillon behind the wheel of the #3 Chevrolet and Tyler Reddick behind the wheel of the #8 Chevrolet. But you could make the case that either situation might change.
As for Dillon, Childress is his grandfather, so it’s hard to see him being replaced. But that’s a two-way street: knowing Reddick is out after 2023, could Childress and Dillon reach a mutual agreement to sideline the latter for next year to secure Busch’s services on a long-term contract?
Maybe worth mentioning too is the fact that crew chief Justin Alexander also recently announced that he will be stepping down after the 2022 season.
As for Reddick, Childress has stated time and time again that he remains tied to the team for 2023, despite having signed with 23XI Racing and Toyota for 2024.
But is there a better opportunity out there to get back at Toyota for swiping Reddick by snagging Busch?
Would 23XI Racing be opposed to taking Reddick a year early? While not in the initial plans, it might be possible, with Kurt Busch’s health status still uncertain.
Or, perhaps Kyle will move to 23XI Racing in 2023 and then move to Richard Childress Racing by swapping seats with Reddick in 2024. Then things would really get wild.
Where will Kyle Busch end up competing in the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series season? Will he re-sign with Joe Gibbs Racing? Will he even manage to remain with Toyota? Is a new team or teams in his future?