With no IndyCar action to speak of for another six months or so, let’s get into a way-too-early prediction for how next year’s standings will look.
After back-to-back seasons of having picked the eventual IndyCar champion to finish in 10th place or worse in the standings, I finally nailed my first correct title pick since Josef Newgarden in 2017 with Alex Palou in 2023.
Palou became the first driver to clinch a championship before the season finale since Sebastien Bourdais in 2007 — and if you exclude Champ Car, it hadn’t happened since Dan Wheldon in 2005. Palou took the points lead in the first race at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course race in mid-May and never looked back.
Now as we prepare for an offseason of roughly six months, let’s have a way-too-early look at how things might shape up in 2024.
IndyCar way-too-early power rankings
10. Colton Herta
I still trust Colton Herta’s speed, but not his consistency. IndyCar’s highest paid driver was his own worst enemy more times than he needed to be during a winless 2023 season, the first such season of his career. I think he gets back in the win column in 2024, but too much needs to go right for him to compete for a title.
IndyCar power rankings: No. 9 through No. 7
9. Marcus Ericsson
I also don’t think Marcus Ericsson’s move from Chip Ganassi Racing to Andretti Autosport makes him a championship contender either, given his relative drop-off over the second half of each of the last two seasons, two seasons in which he spent time leading the points early on.
But he has been one of the most consistent drivers on the grid since becoming a race winner in 2021, and he can provide Andretti Autosport with a sense of stability that they have been lacking.
8. Christian Lundgaard
I like Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing’s Christian Lundgaard as a dark horse to win the road and street course championship in 2024, given that he hovered between third and fifth throughout the second half of the 2023 season following his first career win at Toronto.
What it don’t like is his team’s upside in the oval races, where they have consistently been nowhere near contending pace. Perhaps that can change in 2024, but I need to see it to believe it.
7. David Malukas
The first somewhat bold pick in these rankings lands at No. 7. David Malukas is set to join Arrow McLaren after spending the first two seasons of his career at Dale Coyne Racing, and he looks primed for immediate success. The major question will be whether or not Arrow McLaren can get up to speed after a surprisingly winless 2023 season.
While Malukas spent two seasons with Dale Coyne’s team as opposed to just one before his big move, it is worth mentioning that both he and Alex Palou finished in 16th place in the standings as rookies — and with three top 10 finishes, one podium finish, and an average finish of roughly 14th. Palou won the championship in his first season elsewhere.
IndyCar power rankings: No. 6 through No. 4
6. Linus Lundqvist
With all due respect to Marcus Ericsson, specifically his 2022 Indy 500 win, I think Chip Ganassi Racing may have gotten an overall upgrade when they signed Linus Lundqvist. Reminiscent of when Chip Ganassi signed Alex Palou for 2021, the move seemingly came out of nowhere.
All Ganassi needed to see from the 2022 Indy Lights champion was two starts for Meyer Shank Racing, and he was sold, netting Lundqvist the ride he had been waiting for after being left without one in 2023. A rookie competing full-time for IndyCar’s top team should be interesting.
5. Pato O’Ward
If Arrow McLaren can make a step forward and compete with Team Penske and Chip Ganassi Racing on a regular basis in 2024, then Pato O’Ward can be the key beneficiary. He and the team have had two winless seasons together in four years, and he still managed fourth place points finishes in both.
4. Scott McLaughlin
Scott McLaughlin’s consistency after the Indy 500, which saw him reel off 11 top nine finishes in 11 starts, has him on the radar of many as a potential championship contender in 2024.
Two reasons to be cautious: one, he didn’t win any of those races, and two, the same thing was said after last year. Even he admitted he doesn’t want to get ahead of himself. But a third place finish in the 2023 standings, which placed him highest within both Team Penske and Chevrolet, should provide even more momentum than last year.
IndyCar power rankings: No. 3 through No. 1
3. Josef Newgarden
The fact that Josef Newgarden tied his worst finish in the standings as a Team Penske driver goes to show that maybe there is a little something to the Indy 500 hangover, even as he became the first driver in 13 years to win the “Greatest Spectacle in Racing” and then go on to win multiple races later in the season.
I expect a major bounce back in 2024 after a season which saw his road and street course point total end up a bizarre 226 points shy of the champion’s.
2. Scott Dixon
If there is one thing the last four races of the 2023 IndyCar season proved, it’s that you can truly never count out Scott Dixon.
Even with the championship out of reach, Dixon reeled off three wins, all of which looked unlikely, in the final four races of the year, extending his record winning streak to 19 seasons. Aside from his Long Beach DNF, he placed no lower than seventh throughout the year. Strangely enough, he hadn’t finished in second in the standings since 2009.
1. Alex Palou
It’s hard to repeat as an IndyCar champion, as it hasn’t been done since Dario Franchitti won three in a row from 2009 to 2011. But nobody is better suited to do it than Alex Palou, who is also behind the wheel of a No. 10 Chip Ganassi Racing Honda like Franchitti was.
Palou became IndyCar’s first five-win champion since 2016, and he did it without a single finish lower than eighth place. That combination of dominance and consistency is potent in a series as competitive and as deep as IndyCar, and with all the contract drama likely behind him, there’s no reason he can’t do it again.
IndyCar power rankings: Just missed
Kyle Kirkwood – As with Colton Herta, I trust the speed but not the consistency, though in Kyle Kirkwood’s case, this comes down more to the team than the driver. The addition of Marcus Ericsson should help the organization as a whole, but there are other issues that need to be addressed. The fact that Kirkwood won twice in 2023 and still finished outside of the top 10 in points is massively disappointing.
Alexander Rossi – Arrow McLaren as a whole finished the 2023 season winless, but Alexander Rossi’s first season with the team was largely underwhelming regardless. Now with two young teammates looking to make their mark, he needs to step it up in 2024.
Will Power – On the topic of winless seasons, Will Power saw his 16-year winning streak come to an end in 2023. Despite being responsible for Team Penske’s only title in the last four years, he is also responsible for just one of their last 15 victories. Could the 2024 season be his last?
Marcus Armstrong – After landing the full-time ride he was aiming for with Chip Ganassi Racing, there will undoubtedly be some pressure on Marcus Armstrong. For as consistent as he was throughout his rookie season in the road and street course races, he never had a true breakthrough moment. That needs to change.
Rinus VeeKay – Masked by Ed Carpenter Racing’s struggles, Rinus VeeKay is no longer the mistake-prone driver he was known as throughout his first few seasons in IndyCar. If the team can improve, he can compete for a top 10 spot in the standings. We already know he’s one of the fastest drivers at Indy.
Unranked: Graham Rahal, Devlin DeFrancesco, Romain Grosjean, Callum Ilott, Agustin Canapino, Juri Vips, Felix Rosenqvist, Tom Blomqvist, Santino Ferrucci, Benjamin Pedersen, Sting Ray Robb, and any other driver who may or may not end up in a full-time ride for 2024.