The 2021 Formula 1 driver lineup may look nothing like the 2020 lineup with so few drivers under contract. Here is a way-too-early prediction.
The 2020 Formula 1 driver lineup ended up being set with relatively little drama, as 18 of the 20 drivers who competed in the 2019 season are set to stay put and nobody is actually set to switch teams; the two new drivers are both set to replace outgoing drivers.
This relative lack of movement comes just one year after one of the craziest Silly Seasons in recent memory, when only eight of 20 drivers, including just two pairs of teammates, stayed put from the 2018 season to the 2019 season.
Meanwhile, six drivers switched teams and six new drivers arrived to replace six outgoing drivers. In total, four of the 10 teams brought in completely new driver lineups in 2019, and suddenly every lineup except for those of Mercedes and Haas were tied for the third longest tenured lineup in the sport simply be showing up on day one.
The 2021 driver lineup looks like it could look a lot more like 2019’s than 2020’s in that there may be quite a lot of driver movement throughout the field leading up to the 2021 season, although there is also a potential for not much at all.
As of now, only four of the 20 drivers in the 2020 lineup are under contract beyond the 2020 season, and six of the other 16 are over 30 years old.
Additionally, the 2021 season is set to see the introduction of several new rules and regulations by Liberty Media with the aim of making the sport more competitive. Among those new rules and regulations is a $175 million budget cap, but said budget cap does not include driver salaries.
This could potentially set up bidding wars and massive contracts for some of the sport’s most demanded drivers, and with 16 of the 20 drivers set to compete in 2020 slated to become free agents, this could create chaos.
Here is the way-too-early 2021 Formula 1 driver lineup prediction.
Way-too-early 2021 Formula 1 driver lineup
Mercedes
Lewis Hamilton
With Max Verstappen set to stay at Red Bull Racing through at least the 2023 season amid rumors that he would leave the team for Mercedes if Honda could not improve enough in their second season powering the Milton Keynes-based team, Lewis Hamilton will be favored to return to Mercedes, even amid rumors that he will leave for Ferrari. The only thing that would change this likelihood is if Mercedes walk away from the sport as a constructor, which has been rumored. With that being said, despite the fact that Mercedes junior driver George Russell is supposedly tied to Williams through 2021, Mercedes could still have another good option in Russell if Hamilton does leave for Ferrari, discussed in more detail on a later slide. But as of now, he looks set to return.
Valtteri Bottas
Valtteri Bottas is finally beginning to come into his own at Mercedes, and that showed with a career year in 2019. While there were doubts that he would be back with the team in 2020, the Silver Arrows made the right decision to retain him. CEO and team principal Toto Wolff vowed to make future negotiations smoother for the Finn. Does that mean a long-term future for him, provided Mercedes stick around in 2021, especially considering how great of a teammate he has been for Hamilton and how great of a team player he has been in general over the last three years?
Ferrari
Charles Leclerc
Charles Leclerc’s initial contract with Ferrari, which he signed in September of 2018, was believed to run through the 2022 season. But whether it did or didn’t doesn’t matter, as he recently signed a contract extension through the 2024 season with the team.
Daniel Ricciardo
Daniel Ricciardo, who currently drives for Renault, was rumored as a possible Mercedes or Ferrari driver during his years at Red Bull Racing, and one of those rumors could finally come to fruition in 2021, (a) with Max Verstappen set to stay put at Red Bull Racing and (b) because Renault managing director Cyril Abiteboul has already hinted that he won’t be back with the team next year. Ferrari would naturally be the more likely open option because of Sebastian Vettel’s uncertain status with the team, but perhaps he and Lewis Hamilton will swap seats in this driver lineup. Hamilton could still end up moving to Ferrari, which could mean that Ricciardo will make the move to Mercedes to place him back in a competitive car for the first time since 2018.
Red Bull Racing
Max Verstappen
It was initially expected that if Red Bull Racing have what it takes in their second season with Honda to make enough of an improvement to challenge Mercedes on a regular basis and give Max Verstappen a championship-caliber race car, he would have no reason not to be back in the 2021 season, perhaps even on a long-term contract. As it turns out, he didn’t even need to see that much to believe that he is in the right place. More than two months before the start of the 2020 seasons, he signed a contract extension with the team that runs through the 2023 season.
Alexander Albon
Alexander Albon showed he has what it takes to drive for Red Bull Racing after replacing Pierre Gasly over the 2019 summer break, and if he can keep it up alongside Max Verstappen in the 2020 season, they would have no reason not to re-sign him.
McLaren
Lando Norris
Is there a more perfect driver lineup in Formula 1 right now than McLaren’s as far as driver camaraderie is concerned? The team have Lando Norris signed to a deal with an option for beyond the 2020 season following his impressive rookie year, and they have confirmed their spot in the 2021 season by switching from Renault engines to Mercedes engines.
Carlos Sainz Jr.
Again, is there a more perfect driver lineup in Formula 1 right now than McLaren’s? Carlos Sainz Jr.’s breakout year in 2019 following a rocky start shows that if the Woking-based team can make enough strides in the right direction, they can contend for podium finishes on a more regular basis. There is no reason for them not to utilize the option they have in Sainz’s contract to retain him.
Renault
Esteban Ocon
Esteban Ocon’s contract with Renault, which he signed in August to replace Nico Hulkenberg starting in 2020, runs through the 2021 season.
Jack Aitken
Renault managing director Cyril Abiteboul hinted that Renault may look to go with a young lineup in 2021, and Jack Aitken gives them the option to do that. The 24-year-old was Renault’s third and reserve driver in 2018 and their test driver in 2019. The former Renault Sport Academy driver won three races in the 2019 Formula 2 season and finished in fifth place in the driver standings driving for Campos Racing.
AlphaTauri (formerly Toro Rosso)
Pierre Gasly
With Max Verstappen set to return to Red Bull Racing amid speculation that he may end up elsewhere, it is set to be between Alexander Albon and Pierre Gasly for the second seat at Red Bull Racing in 2021. Neither driver has given anybody any reason to believe that Albon should lose his seat with the Milton Keynes-based team, which would keep Gasly with AlphaTauri for another year, provided he performs well enough in 2020.
Naoki Yamamoto
I just can’t see Daniil Kvyat sticking around for a third consecutive season in his second-chance stint at AlphaTauri, and even after Naoki Yamamoto “didn’t fit the Toro Rosso criteria” for 2020 despite testing Pierre Gasly’s car at Suzuka, it’s not out of the question that he could land the ride with backing from Honda in the future. Then again, maybe Kvyat does come back again.
Racing Point
Sergio Perez
Sergio Perez signed a three-year contract extension with the Lawrence Stroll-owned team to remain with them through the 2022 season, giving him the third longest active contract as far as expiration dates are concerned.
Lance Stroll
Who owns Racing Point again? And who is the owner’s son? Enough said.
Alfa Romeo Racing
Antonio Giovinazzi
Even after a rough start to his rookie season in 2019, Ferrari kept their faith in Antonio Giovinazzi, and they backed him to return to Alfa Romeo Racing in 2020 because of the improvements he made throughout the year. If he can build upon that progress in 2020, he should be back for a third year with the team.
Sebastian Vettel
After another incident-filled season in 2019, Sebastian Vettel needs to get with the program in 2020, as it is a contract year for him. Unfortunately for him, that doesn’t seem likely. Assuming he doesn’t retire after 2020, Alfa Romeo Racing seems like the most likely destination for him, likely as the replacement for Kimi Raikkonen, who could retire after 2020. If Vettel does retire, don’t be surprised to see current Formula 2 driver and Ferrari Driver Academy member Mick Schumacher end up here, perhaps even as Giovinazzi’s replacement if Raikkonen sticks around.
Haas
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Kevin Magnussen
Kevin Magnussen should again prove to be the better of the two Haas drivers in 2020, and that should result in another contract extension.
Nico Hulkenberg
Haas could find themselves in a position to admit that they made a mistake by retaining Romain Grosjean for another season, and they can do so by signing Nico Hulkenberg, who they nearly signed before extending the contract of their long-time driver for 2020. Then again, Grosjean’s poor performance hasn’t resulted in his removal from the team so far, so what he needs to do to return is unclear.
Williams
George Russell
Williams deputy team principal Claire Williams, in response to rumors that Mercedes junior driver George Russell would drive for Mercedes in 2021, stated that he is tied to the Grove-based team runs through 2021. While he is technically not considered to be under contract with the team, as Mercedes are believed to be able to pry him away if need be, Mercedes’ driver situation suggests that yes, he will be back with Williams again in 2021.
Nicholas Latifi
Robert Kubica was whitewashed by George Russell in 2019, failing to outqualify him in any of the 2021 races. Nicholas Latifi certainly looks poised for more success than that in his rookie year in 2020, and that coupled with his financial backing should be enough to keep him at Williams in 2021.
Will this 2021 Formula 1 driver lineup prediction look anything like that actual 2021 driver lineup? The 2020 season hasn’t even started yet, and it isn’t scheduled to do so for almost two months, with the Australian Grand Prix scheduled to kick things off at Melbourne Grand Prix Circuit in Albert Park, Melbourne, Australia on Sunday, March 15.