Daniel Ricciardo has quickly become the hottest pending free agent on the market for the 2021 Formula 1 season. Where will he end up?
Daniel Ricciardo made the shocking decision in August of 2018 to leave Red Bull Racing at the end of the 2018 Formula 1 season and join Renault on a two-year contract.
The 30-year-old Australian is set to enter the second of two seasons on his contract with the French marque, and he has quickly become the hottest pending free agent on the market for the 2021 season.
Ferrari extended Charles Leclerc’s contract through the 2024 season after he had quite an impressive first season with the team while Red Bull Racing extended Max Verstappen’s contract by an additional three years through the 2023 season after he signed a three-year extension with the team back in October of 2017.
Meanwhile, six-time world champion Lewis Hamilton, who still technically does not have a deal lined up for the 2021 season, is expected to return to Mercedes for what would be his ninth season with the team.
But for Ricciardo, there is nothing yet confirmed for next year, and there are still quite a few potentially attractive open seats.
Where will Ricciardo end up in the 2021 season? Here are three possible landing spots for him.
Ferrari
Daniel Ricciardo had been linked to a Ferrari seat for the 2019 season had he left Red Bull Racing. Then he made the shocking decision to leave the Milton Keynes-based team for Renault, and there are rumors that he won’t return there in 2021.
In fact, team managing director Cyril Abiteboul stated last season after they signed Esteban Ocon to replace Nico Hulkenberg for the 2020 season that they may look to pair Ocon with a younger driver for 2021 and beyond.
Here is what he had to say, according to RaceFans.
"“It was important when given the opportunity to seize the opportunity of a complete driver in Daniel last year and we don’t regret that at Renault. Just like right now we think it’s the right moment to start having some fresher blood. “I think it’s a trend actually you can see in several teams. We are also interested in young drivers with our academy. We hope and expect to have possibly one driver from that academy by 2021. So it’s also a shift of dynamic to start really welcoming young drivers in our line-up. “It’s not something that we would have been capable of doing two years ago but I think with more maturity in the team we can now envisage that. And that would be a good test to see if we are capable of also managing that because it’s a different type of management. Managing some who is 20, 22 or in his thirties, that’s different.”"
Given the bitter relationship between Red Bull Racing and Renault, which led to the former switching engine manufacturers from Renault to Honda ahead of the 2019 season after 12 years together, it is quite possible that Renault only signed Ricciardo to get back at Red Bull Racing.
If that is the case, they may effectively be admitting that they aren’t good enough for him, but without actually saying it. Keep in mind that his contract was the third largest in the sport last year. Is that really worth it for a team competing in the mid-pack?
This could perfectly set up a move to Ferrari. Four-time world champion Sebastian Vettel is out of a contract following the 2020 season, and given his abundance recent struggles, which has included enough points thrown away to cost him two world championships, a near-suspension and a ridiculous and completely unnecessary run-in with Charles Leclerc, there is speculation that he may not be back with the team in 2021, even though team principal Mattia Binotto has stated that their goal is to bring him back.
Naturally, Ricciardo has been linked to his seat should the Scuderia not bring him back.
But if Ricciardo leaves Renault and does not end up at Ferrari, be it if Vettel returns or somebody else replaces him, where else might he end up?
Mercedes
It was believed in the 2018 season that if Daniel Ricciardo did opt to leave Red Bull Racing after the year, he would leave for either Ferrari or Mercedes. Now he could have a chance to drive for one of the two once again. If not Ferrari, there is also an open seat at Mercedes.
There are technically two seats open at the Silver Arrows for the 2021 season, as Lewis Hamilton still hasn’t officially signed with the team for past 2020. But assuming that happens as expected, Mercedes still have Valtteri Bottas, whose contract also expires at the end of the 2020 season.
The 30-year-old Finn is set to enter his fourth year with the Brackley-based team, and it is also his fourth year driving for the team on a one-year deal.
Team principal and CEO Toto Wolff has hinted at Bottas’s return for 2021, vowing to make negotiations with him a lot smoother in 2020 after there were many rumors about his future in 2019 before he was finally confirmed by the team for the 2020 season in late August.
This certainly doesn’t guarantee a return to Mercedes, but the end of the day, Bottas is a solid number two driver behind Hamilton who is capable of winning races and being a good teammate.
Since joining the team, Mercedes have won all three driver championships with Hamilton and all three constructor championships. Should this continue, the one-year deals for Bottas likely will also.
But if anything of that nature is compromised in 2020, don’t expect Mercedes to waste any time trying to fix it, and Ricciardo could be the perfect fix.
In five years at Red Bull Racing during a span when Mercedes won five driver championships and five constructor standings, Ricciardo won seven races. Bottas has seven wins in three years at Mercedes. Hamilton has 31 in the same span.
But if Mercedes re-sign Bottas alongside Hamilton, where else could Ricciardo go?
Renault
It is no secret that Daniel Ricciardo did not have the first season he wanted to have with Renault, finishing in ninth place in the driver standings without a podium finish after securing seven victories and 29 podium finishes in five seasons at Red Bull Racing.
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But he maintained throughout the season that he was not regretful of his decision to move on to Renault, at least not in 2019. Additionally, everybody, including himself knew that it wasn’t going to be easy.
While he stated that he would answer calls from other teams regarding his potential availability for the 2021 season and possibly beyond, he remains committed to trying to make it work at Renault in the second year of his two-year contract.
Here is what Ricciardo had to say about the matter, according to Formula 1.
"“I will answer [their] calls for sure, but I most importantly want this to work [with Renault]. I don’t want it to feel like I’ve just come to Renault, got away from Red Bull and then I’m looking for the next best thing [somewhere else]. “I really want to make this happen and make it work, and obviously the step to that is getting more out of this year than we did last year, and hopefully getting enough out of it that the journey continues beyond my two-year contract. “That’s the, let’s say, ideal scenario. To talk about other what-ifs and the future here and there, it’s still too early, and… you don’t want to rock the boat obviously as well, but…we haven’t even started this year so to already start thinking about ’21…I can’t think about it now.”"
In the 2019 season, Ricciardo finished in a season-high fourth place in the Italian Grand Prix, and this was one of his five top six finishes. He finished 16 of the season’s 21 events and recorded eight lead-lap finishes. There is definitely room for improvement, but the season wasn’t a totally lost cause.
Even though Cyril Abiteboul hinted that the team would like to pair Esteban Ocon with a younger driver, it is hard to see them passing up the opportunity to re-sign Ricciardo if he doesn’t land a better ride, especially given what could be the subliminal meaning behind that message.
Ricciardo had been discussed as a potential McLaren driver during his final season at Red Bull Racing as well, but he ultimately signed with Renault before McLaren went with rookie Lando Norris and former Red Bull Racing and Renault driver Carlos Sainz Jr. They do not look like they will deviate from that lineup anytime soon.
Will Daniel Ricciardo be back with Renault in the 2021 Formula 1 season, or will he leave the team for one of the potentially open seats at Ferrari or Mercedes? Will he pull off another shocking move and leave Renault for a different team, like he did in 2018 when he left Red Bull Racing for Renault?