Sebastian Vettel is set for a final season with Ferrari in the 2020 Formula 1 season after signing an extension in 2017. Where will he end up in 2021?
Four-time Formula 1 champion Sebastian Vettel came to Ferrari ahead of the 2015 Formula 1 season as the replacement for two-time champion Fernando Alonso, and he has driven for the team ever since.
The 32-year-old German signed a three-year contract extension with the Italian team in August of 2017, and he and the team have announced that the 2020 season will be their final season together. He is set to be replaced by McLaren’s Carlos Sainz Jr. next year.
Given the fact that his form has been less than stellar as of late, capped off by him causing a wreck that collected himself and teammate Charles Leclerc in the Brazilian Grand Prix toward the end of the 2019 season, there had been a lot of speculation about his future even before this departure was confirmed.
Such speculation has turned Ferrari’s seat alongside Leclerc, who recently signed with the team through the 2024 season, into the most discussed seat regarding the 2021 season, as several drivers have been linked to it, most notably six-time champion Lewis Hamilton, who is set to enter a contract year in what is slated to be his eighth year at Mercedes.
With Vettel not going to end up back with Ferrari as Leclerc’s teammate in the 2021 season, will he move to another team, or will he be out of a ride altogether?
Here are five possible landing spots for him.
Sebastian Vettel possible landing spots: Renault
Before it was confirmed that the 2020 Formula 1 season would be Sebastian Vettel’s final season at Ferrari, Renault managing director Cyril Abiteboul refused to rule out the possibility of signing him for the 2021 season.
Daniel Ricciardo, who left Red Bull Racing to sign with the French marque after the 2018 season, is in a contract year in 2020, and there had already been growing speculation that he would not be back with the team after this season before he signed with McLaren to replace the Ferrari-bound Carlos Sainz Jr.
In fact, Ricciardo himself had been linked to Vettel’s seat even before that seat was confirmed as being open for next year.
Here is what Abiteboul had to say about the possibility of the four-time world champion coming to the team next year, according to Autosport.
"“I don’t want to say no, as he is a great driver, and a great champion. We worked together on the engine side and we won together."
However, Renault have already signed youngster Esteban Ocon through the 2021 season, and in discussing the possibility of retaining Ricciardo for at least another year last September, Abiteboul stated that he would like to move forward with a younger driver lineup.
That would effectively eliminate the possibility of Vettel joining the team, and he also made sure to make note of that when discussing this scenario.
"“[But] I rather aspire to work with tomorrow’s drivers than yesterday’s. It really is very difficult to sum it up like that, so please don’t sum it up like that about Sebastian. Still, we also have a driver academy, with drivers who might come out of it in 2021 or 2022. “We need to keep this in mind, as we created this academy in 2016 with the goal of having a driver graduate to F1 in 2021. Now 2021 is coming, we have to acknowledge it. Typically, there’s Christian Lundgaard. He’s an option among others: he’s got his F2 season to do, we’ve got our own season to do with Daniel.”"
Of course, things can change; perhaps Christian Lundgaard and Guanyu Zhou won’t be ready for a Formula 1 ride by next year, especially with the Formula 2 season having already been, at the very least, shortened by a great amoung due to the coronavirus pandemic.
But if they don’t, where else could Vettel end up?
Sebastian Vettel possible landing spots: Alfa Romeo Racing
The last time a driver was replaced at Ferrari, he ended up at the Ferrari-powered Alfa Romeo Racing. That driver, Kimi Raikkonen, is slated to return for a second year at the Swiss team in 2020.
Alfa Romeo Racing have a deal with Ferrari that includes the right for Ferrari to select one of Alfa Romeo Racing’s two drivers each season. While Raikkonen joined the team when Charles Leclerc left to replace him at Ferrari, he was technically not Ferrari’s selection like Leclerc was when he drove for the team, then Alfa Romeo Sauber, in the 2018 season.
Vettel would almost assuredly have to be Ferrari’s selection with the team, and for one reason: his age.
It makes sense. It’s not like Vettel is 45 years old and washed up, in the twilight years of his career. Yes, he has struggled as of late, but perhaps he needs change of scenery to regain his footing after three consecutive (possibly four after 2020) seasons full of struggles.
He is still only 32, and that could potentially lead to a second Ferrari stint; let’s not forget the fact that he is a four-time world champion.
With all things considered, it is highly unlikely that both Alfa Romeo Racing drivers, Raikkonen and Antonio Giovinazzi, Ferrari’s selection for the team, will be back with the team in the 2021 season. Raikkonen has even been rumored to retire; he is slated to break the all-time starts record in 2021.
Either way, there will almost assuredly be an opening with the team in 2021. Should Vettel seek additional opportunities in Formula 1, this may make sense.
Sebastian Vettel possible landing spots: Red Bull Racing
A logical option for Sebastian Vettel could be a return to the team with which he won 38 races, including 34 during four consecutive championships seasons: Red Bull Racing.
Red Bull Racing have a clear number one driver in Max Verstappen, who they inked to a long-term deal through the 2023 season over the offseason, and they have several very capable number two drivers currently in the organization at the flagship team and at sister team AlphaTauri.
But they haven’t been shy about making changes within the organization when things haven’t gone well with their second driver. Just 12 races into the 2019 season, they replaced Pierre Gasly with Alexander Albon. Albon performed well, but he will likely need to improve to retain his seat beyond 2020.
We have already seen how Daniil Kvyat has performed at Red Bull Racing in years past, and we have already seen the team pass up on him for another number two driver alongside Verstappen, and multiple times.
Could all of this lead to a reunion for the 32-year-old German and the Milton Keynes-based team?
Last summer, Vettel was driving on the same contract with Ferrari that is set to expire at the end of the 2020 season, and Red Bull Racing team principal Christian Horner heated up rumors about him returning to the team in 2021.
Here is what he had to say about the matter at the time, according to Express.
"“We have great memories of Sebastian’s time with us. He is part of our history. He won four titles and many, many races together with us, including Red Bull’s first win in Formula 1. We have a special relationship with Sebastian. Although he is now with Ferrari, he still comes to see the mechanics very often, he knows most of the faces here and is still a friend of the team. He was very happy for us [when we won] at the Red Bull Ring.”"
As far as his availability for 2021 goes, nothing has changed. The thing is, after 2020, he will no longer be with Ferrari, and that has now been confirmed. So will he still “come to see” the team in 2021, perhaps as one of their two drivers?
While it can’t be ruled out, it is unlikely. Here is what Horner recently had to say about the matter, according to RACER.
"“I think it’s enormously unlikely. We have a long-term agreement with Max. Alex is doing a good job. We’ve got a good dynamic within the team. Experience shows that two alpha males, it doesn’t tend to pan out well. Sebastian is still a very competitive grand prix driver. I don’t think it would be conducive for our team to have two alphas. We’re happy with the driver line-up we have.”"
Sebastian Vettel possible landing spots: Mercedes
While Sebastian Vettel will not be replaced at Ferrari by Lewis Hamilton ahead of the 2021 Formula 1 season, there are still two seats slated to be open at Mercedes with Hamilton and Valtteri Bottas both in contract years. assuming they still field a team in 2021 with the new rules and regulations slated to be enforced.
Mercedes team principal and CEO Toto Wolff has previously stated that hiring Vettel is not out of the question, and when Vettel and Ferrari confirmed that they will be going their separate ways after the 2020 season, he called the situation a development that the team cannot ignore while referring to Vettel as an “asset”.
Assuming that was more than just talk, 2021 would be the right time to make the German driver an asset for the German team.
There has also been a lot of talk about Mercedes junior driver George Russell being the heir apparent to Hamilton at the Silver Arrows. However, the current Williams driver is reportedly under contract with Williams through the 2021 season, per Williams deputy team principal Claire Williams, and they have no plan of changing that.
This only further solidifies the idea that Vettel is a solid option for the Brackley-based team for the 2021 season, even though it remains likely that they will retain both Hamilton and Bottas.
Bottas is slated for a fourth season with the team in 2020, and Wolff vowed to do a better job in terms of contract negotiations with the 30-year-old Finn in the future following a 2019 season that included many rumors about his future, hinting at, although notably not confirming, an extended stay.
Additionally, Bottas recently stated that he has been told that Vettel won’t replace him. Here is what he had to say on the Sky F1 Vodcast.
"“It’s the same as every year for me. I find it quite funny that with not even a single race done, there’s been people getting my seat. It made me laugh! So there’s no pressure from that side. I have my clear goal for the season in my mind and that’s it. Things will then sort themselves one way or another, whatever’s going to happen. I’ve no stress about that at all.” “It doesn’t get to you. We’ve been very honest about what the situation is all the time about contracts, and I got a pretty straight message that no, they’re not considering Seb. So I said fine, no worries then.”"
Regardless, Mercedes have zero drivers under contract for 2021, and aside of Hamilton and Bottas, Vettel seems like the most likely option.
Sebastian Vettel possible landing spots: Retirement
With Sebastian Vettel set to be replaced by Carlos Sainz Jr. at Ferrari ahead of the 2021 Formula 1 season, there are several reasons to believe that he will end up out of Formula 1 completely following 2020 and be forced into retirement — maybe not a permanent retirement, but a retirement nevertheless.
Vettel has previously stated that he will not retire until he is no longer having fun, at which point he would rather see somebody else who could have fun competing in the sport in a ride rather than being left without one.
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His logic makes sense. A four-time champion and 53-time Grand Prix winner, which ranks third on the all-time wins list, he has done everything there is to do in Formula 1.
On several instances throughout the 2019 season, which was one of his worst years, he alluded to the idea that he was no longer having fun, stating that modern-day Formula 1 is not what it once was in his eyes when comparing it to his early years. He has recently stated that he still wants to compete, however.
Most notably, his form has dropped off rapidly in recent years, and that has cost him big. The points that he has lost and that Lewis Hamilton gained because of his unforced errors cost him the championships in both the 2017 and 2018 season.
We could very well be looking at a six-time champion Vettel and a four-time champion Hamilton instead of the other way around. Now the latter is a three-time reigning champion as well for the first time in his career.
This alone could not only give Vettel a reason to want to retire; we already know it gave Ferrari enough reason not to re-sign him, even with the 2020 season having not yet gotten undereway. It could also give other teams enough reason not to want to sign him.
Don’t be surprised if the 2020 season is Vettel’s last season.
Where will Sebastian Vettel end up in the 2021 Formula 1 season? Will he still be competing in the sport, or will he retire? If he is still competing, for who will he be driving?