Dale Earnhardt Jr. And Why He Will Advance In The Chase
When it comes to Dale Earnhardt Jr. being a legitimate title contender, there’s not anything that can be said to back that claim up. Sure, he’s been strong in the past. For example, in 2003 he finished third in points behind Matt Kenseth and Jimmie Johnson. That may not be much, but considering he spent most of the spring in second it’s clear that he was strong that year. A decade later, in 2013, he was winless but found himself in contention to win several times. He ended up fifth in the points.
Aside from that, he has a tendency to start out strong during the season only to fade away as the season draws to an end. In 2012 he started out with 15 top-10s in the first 20 races, only to sit out two events in the Chase and finish 12th in the points. In 2014 four wins wasn’t enough to keep him in contention, and he finished eighth in points. However, with the performance of the No. 88 in 2015, he will very well make it to the third round of the Chase and curb his run of bad Chase luck.
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He’s a consistent driver at the start of a season, yes, but not as much as the season winds down. But with the next three events being Charlotte, Kansas, and Talladega, Earnhardt has statistics on his side. At Charlotte, he only has 12 top-10s in 31 starts. However, he is fast there on a yearly basis, and the times where he hasn’t finished well do not indicate how fast he has been.
Meanwhile, at Kansas he’s finished in the top-10 in half of his starts there. He’s fast there as well, and his finish there in the spring matches his Charlotte finish from earlier in the season (third). In last year’s Chase race at Kansas, he was strong enough to even lead several laps, however a blown tire ended his day and ultimately his Chase hopes.
Talladega looks to be Earnhardt’s best bet to advancing to the third round of the Chase, hopefully redeeming himself of an otherwise embarrassing elimination last year. He ran well in last year’s event before crashing, but he came back in the spring to dominate the event. His restrictor plate game is stellar this season, as he finished third in the Daytona 500, won at Talladega, and won again at Daytona in July. He’ll be the man to beat at Talladega in a couple of weeks, but he can (and will) get the job done. We’re seeing glimpses of Earnhardt as he was in the early 00s’ regarding restrictor plate racing.
On that note, Earnhardt and Ives have meshed well this year as Earnhardt hasn’t really had a definitive slump this season. He’s always rebounded from whatever bad stretch he may have this season, and that’s good for the team. Plus, take a look at his stats this season. He is on pace to set a career-high in top-10s this season. He’s at 18 right now (career-high was 22 in 2013), but there are seven races left this season and he has run well at every remaining track this season.
With that being said, Earnhardt has also been very good about finishing races and keeping mishaps down to a minimum. These are three of his better tracks, and his relationship with Ives has kept him out of trouble this season. He’ll come through these three races and ultimately make it to the third round of the Chase.
Be sure to weigh in below on Earnhardt’s chances in the Chase.