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NASCAR: Five Reasons Johnson Will Not Win Eight Titles

By Jonathan Pilat

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Sep 17, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; A general view of the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series trophy during the The Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Media Day at The Murphy Chicago. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 17, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; A general view of the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series trophy during the The Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Media Day at The Murphy Chicago. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports /

The Chase

That’s right, the same championship playoff system that has proven to be so successful for the No. 48 team has become its Achilles heel. The reason for that? That would be the numerous changes to the Chase for the Sprint Cup over the years. Those have included increasing the number of teams allowed in the Chase (2007, 2013) simplifying the points structure (2011), adding a wild-card option (2011), and the craziness that was the Richmond cutoff race in 2013, no more significant have the changes been to the Chase than were the complete overhaul of the format in 2014.

The well-documented restructuring unveiled in 2014 introduced an elimination format with 16 drivers. After every three races of the 10 race playoff, four drivers are eliminated from championship contention. The penultimate race at Phoenix International Raceway represents the final cutoff, where four drivers are left to compete in the Championship finale at Homestead. The driver with the best finishing position at Homestead, regardless of bonus points, is deemed the Sprint Cup Champion. It has been necessary for the would-be champion in that first two instances of the Championship 4 that they must win the race to win the title.

Jimmie has struggled in the Chase the past two seasons. In 2014, a wreck at Kansas foiled his chances of moving past the Contender Round, and in 2015, a mechanical failure at Dover caused him to be eliminated in the Challenger Round. This Chase system does not suit Johnson’s strengths well at all, as consistency over the ten race span was his path to his six titles in the previous structure.

Also, Johnson does not fair well at Homestead, where his average finish is 14.07. Homestead is one of the few tracks “Six-time” has failed to win at in his career, and this will be almost absolutely necessary for Jimmie to win another title. Jimmie will have to get over the Chase bumps in 2016 and reach the Final Four in order to have a chance at the title, an achievement that he has failed to do since the institution of this Chase style in 2014.

Next: JJ's New Role at Hendrick Motorsports

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