NASCAR: Odds Are Not in Chase Elliott’s Favor
Chase Elliott winning the pole for the Daytona 500 was historic but history isn’t necessarily on Elliott’s side when it comes to how he will do once the green flag waves on Sunday
Despite it being the first Sprint Cup pole for Hendrick Motorsports rookie Chase Elliott, his odds for a good finish in the Daytona 500 are very, very slim. Not that there isn’t a first time for everything, but rookies with good fortune in the 500 are few and far between. Sure, there was Trevor Bayne’s surprise win in 2011, and Scott Wimmer’s third-place run in 2004, but when it comes to rookie pole winners, Danica Patrick and Austin Dillon are the only ones to score top-10s (both eighth-place finishes, in 2013 and 2014 respectively).
There’s a lot of things working in Elliott’s favor. For one, he drives for Chevrolet powerhouse Hendrick Motorsports who is without a doubt the best Chevrolet team in the garage. He has the best teammates he could ask for in Jimmie Johnson, Kasey Kahne, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. He has a championship pedigree, being the son of Bill Elliott. He’s got everything working in his favor.
Except for that yellow stripe on his rear bumper.
Take a look at some of the other rookie Daytona 500 pole sitters. There’s Loy Allen, who won the pole in 1994, only to finish 22nd, two laps down. Mike Skinner won the 1997 Daytona 500 pole and even led a lap, only to get caught up in a crash. He still finished 12th. Jimmie Johnson won the 2002 Daytona 500 pole, only to get caught up in not one but two incidents and finish 15th, one lap down.
What’s so different about Elliott? Nothing, really. The rookie stripe is a great equalizer, no matter how much hype he’ll get going into the 500. Unless he pulls a rabbit out of a hat and ends up with a strong Daytona 500 showing like his predecessor Jeff Gordon did his rookie year in 1993, Elliott is going to be humbled pretty fast. It’s a learning process, no doubt, and although he’s improved as a superspeedway racer since he first turned a lap around Daytona in 2014, it’s not that simple to go out and win the Daytona 500.
Let’s not forget the obvious – this will only be Elliott’s sixth Cup start. He’s finished no better than 16th in a Cup race (Richmond, Spring 2015). His chances for a top-10 are pretty high, especially if he follows the latest trend of rookie Daytona 500 pole sitters, but at most it’d be the bottom half of the top-10. Top-15 seems way more likely, because for one, he’s in a better position than he was a year ago in Hendrick’s cast-off No. 25. He’s with a better team with Alan Gustafson as a crew chief, and he’s got a shot at success this year.
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His chances of becoming the 2016 Rookie of the Year took a major boost when he won the pole for Sunday’s Daytona 500. However, it’s more likely that his successes are going to come sometime after the 500. He could turn things around and makes history and prove everyone wrong. However, even with all the support that he has from Hendrick, Chevrolet, and the millions of Jeff Gordon/Bill Elliott/Chase Elliott fans out there, it’s best to play the law of averages and chalk the 500 up to just another learning experience for the young driver.