NASCAR: The Road to Return For Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Out of the spotlight, Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s concussion leaves NASCAR’s biggest star facing a lengthy and uncertain road to recovery.

While all cameras are focused Jeff Gordon, watching his return to the track, Dale Earnhardt Jr. is out of the limelight, slowly working towards a return to the series. On Friday, Earnhardt announced on Twitter that he could see “the light at the end of the tunnel” as his condition improved for the first time in days. Despite this, Earnhardt has no timetable to return to the #88 Chevy; in fact, he stated on Monday that his recovery could “take a little bit longer” than expected. However, we can look at Dale’s history and the experiences of other athletes to determine how and when he’ll be back.

Concussions are a unique injury.

Each one affects the brain differently in each person; accordingly, it’s nearly impossible to predict how long a concussion will last. Harder hits often lead to more severe symptoms, but there’s no telling how long these issues will stick around. In full-contact sports such as hockey and football, many players miss no time after suffering concussions, while others end up losing entire seasons. Any hockey fan will undoubtedly remember the long stretches Sidney Crosby missed while dealing with concussions. These injuries have even forced players into retirement, a fate Earnhardt certainly hopes to avoid.

Dale Jr. is no stranger to head injuries. He missed two races in 2012 from a concussion, knocking him out of the Chase for the Sprint Cup. In both cases, 2012 and now, Earnhardt was not immediately diagnosed–he struggled with symptoms for several weeks before seeing a doctor. Now, although he will be missing at least 3 weeks of competition, Earnhardt’s condition appears to be getting better. The driver recently reported that the ImPACT concussion test he took before the crash matches his baseline pre-concussion results, indicating that his cognitive capacity is slowly returning to normal.

The test is encouraging, but Earnhardt will still have to pass a battery of requirements before being cleared to race again. His own doctors will have to clear him to race again, after which a NASCAR medical specialist will carefully evaluate him before allowing the 41-year old driver to get back behind the wheel of his race car. In addition to grading the ImPACT test, Earnhardt’s doctors will have to evaluate his physical state as well, ensuring the nausea, dizziness, and vision problems the driver has struggled with are completely gone. The fact that Dale Jr has already passed his baseline test is encouraging, but until his physical ailments disappear, he’ll have to remain on the sidelines.

Jeff Gordon, of course, replaced Earnhardt at Indianapolis and will fill in at Pocono as well. If Dale can’t get back on track after this Sunday, he’ll only fall further behind in the Sprint Cup standings. Right now, he sits 11 points out of the final Chase berth. After Pocono, he’ll be looking at a 30-40 point deficit. Making up that margin is doable, but will be extremely tough. In all probability, Dale Jr will have to win a race to lock himself into the Chase. Fortunately for him, he’s been strong at Bristol, Richmond, and Darlington, and will run at each before the Chase for the Sprint Cup begins.

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Ultimately, Dale Earnhardt Jr’s biggest victory won’t be on track. It will simply be returning to his race car. Concussions have ended the careers of far too many athletes. With Earnhardt in the twilight of his career, he’ll have to weigh whether continuing to race is worth the long-term risks. He’s stated that he’s “not going to go against” the advice of his doctors, which means taking every precaution necessary. With good medical care and a little luck on his side, he’ll be able to continue racing and hang his helmet up on his own terms.