NASCAR: Using Track Averages To Predict the 2017 Champion

We are officially past NASCAR‘s 2017 All-Star race weekend. There are 11 races downs and 15 to go in the regular season before the playoffs begin. Based on history, which drivers are most likely to win this year’s championship?

Based on past driver average finishing positions at each track remaining on the schedule, here is a prediction as to who will be crowned the 2017 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series champion come November.

Keep a few things in mind in regards to this prediction list.

1. Stage points will be awarded in the same order as regular race points. The 1st place driver of each race on this list will receive additional points as if they won every stage, the 2nd place driver of each race on this list will receive additional points as if they finished in 2nd in every stage, and so on.
2. Only the top 25 drivers in the current championship standings are factored in on this list. Playoff points are included.
3. Aric Almirola, who sits in 23rd place in the championship standings, is NOT included in these race predictions because he is set to miss the next 8 to 12 weeks of action and will not be in the top 25 when he returns.
4. The rookies on this list and those who have never driven on some of these tracks will be given points for the lowest places (24th through however far up they go).
5. These driver averages are based on track history, not race history. For example, for the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte, a track that hosts more than one NASCAR race each season, Charlotte averages are used, not specifically Coca-Cola 600 averages.

Here is the format that is used for each race, ordered by position.

1. Driver— average finish; championship points awarded; playoff points awarded

Here is the format that is used for each standings update.

1. Driver, Car #, Team, Engine — points (-points behind)

For a full rundown on how the playoffs work, click here.

On the next slide are the current championship standings and playoff point standings from the 1st place through the 25th place drivers. Updates will be provided after each race prediction.