NASCAR Cup Series: 2018 round-by-round playoff predictions
Round of 12
The first cuts have officially been made, so now it’s time to start splitting hairs. The round of 12 is one of the toughest rounds to predict every season. We typically see a surprise driver struggle to become a real contender, and as a result, a favorite finds himself eliminated.
The four drivers I have being eliminated in the round of 12 are Clint Bowyer, Kurt Busch, Ryan Blaney and Erik Jones.
Bowyer, who’s had a resurgence in 2018, just doesn’t impress me enough for me to consider him a real title favorite. I know he has two wins, but he has consistently fallen behind the likes of teammates Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch.
Bowyer is a great personality, but a great attitude doesn’t win you a championship. Unless he has been holding something back, expect the Kansas native to fall to the bottom half of the playoff field.
Next, Kurt Busch. Yes, I have a third Stewart-Haas Racing driver falling out of the playoffs in the first two rounds. Busch falls into a category of driver who can win a championship but doesn’t have the speed to get it done.
Busch has an eight race top nine streak heading into the playoffs, but to me, that’s a red flag. It may seem crazy, but I’m a big proponent of momentum. Busch has momentum, but he has started too early. I typically like to see drivers pick up the pace roughly two or three weeks before the playoffs begin.
You have to ask yourself if Busch can run well for nearly half of a season without cooling off, and for me, that answer is no. Some tough luck is bound to happen to a driver who has run so well throughout the summer.
Third, Ryan Blaney. I continue to critique him on his inconsistency. He has all the ingredients to be a future champion, but he has to level off his performance. Some weeks, he’s leading laps and running in fifth place, then the next week, he disappears and finishes in 19th.
You have to have consistency to win a championship, and I don’t believe Blaney can put together seven or eight impressive performances to take home a title.
Lastly, Erik Jones. Jones is similar to Blaney, but just a little different. While I think Jones has been a bit more consistent recently, he, too, is just not ready for a championship push. We may be just a year or two away from him being considered a title favorite, but in a field full of dogs, he is just a puppy for now.