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NASCAR’s new low downforce package: 3 things to expect in 2020

By Marty Czekala

BRISTOL, TENNESSEE - AUGUST 17: A general view of the action during the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway on August 17, 2019 in Bristol, Tennessee. (Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)
BRISTOL, TENNESSEE - AUGUST 17: A general view of the action during the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway on August 17, 2019 in Bristol, Tennessee. (Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images) /
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MARTINSVILLE, VA – MARCH 24: Jimmie Johnson, driver of the #48 Ally Chevrolet, leads William Byron, driver of the #24 Axalta Chevrolet, and Kurt Busch, driver of the #1 GEARWRENCH/Monster Energy Chevrolet (Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)
MARTINSVILLE, VA – MARCH 24: Jimmie Johnson, driver of the #48 Ally Chevrolet, leads William Byron, driver of the #24 Axalta Chevrolet, and Kurt Busch, driver of the #1 GEARWRENCH/Monster Energy Chevrolet (Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images) /

More passing and more lead changes

For those who started watching the Cup Series last season, get ready for an amazing short track package. The package is similar to the 2017 package, which featured low downforce.

John Probst, NASCAR’s Senior Vice President of Innovation and Racing Department, stated that NASCAR went back to their “playbook from seasons past” and looked at the competitiveness that “the 2017 levels of downforce on those types of tracks” featured, noting that they “had pretty good side-by-side racing that [their] fans enjoyed.”

Let’s compare the spring Martinsville races in 2019 and 2017. This year’s race featured only three lead changes with winner Brad Keselowski leading 446 of the 500 laps, Chase Elliott, the runner-up, leading 49, and Joey Logano leading five. In fact, NASCAR’s loop data recorded 978 green flag passes, about 2.2 per green flag lap.

In 2017, the race featured 18 lead changes, a 500% increase over 2019! While Keselowski and Kyle Busch lead the majority of the race, Elliott led 20 laps, Martin Truex Jr. led 42, Kyle Larson led 23, and Denny Hamlin led 24. Green flag passes? 1,614, averaging 4.0 per lap. That is about an 82.8% increase over 2019.

How about on a road course? Let’s look at Sonoma. In 2019, there were only seven lead changes in the race. Truex led 59 of the 110 laps, with William Byron adding 21 laps after starting on the front row. The loop data recorded green flag passes at 2,035, or roughly 24.2 per green flag lap.

In 2017, the lead changes were nearly doubled at 13, with the green flag pass total sitting at 3,409, about 34.8 per green flag lap. Truex led the most laps, but he only led 25. Not far behind was race winner Kevin Harvick at 24, Keselowski at 17, Jimmie Johnson at 12, and Hamlin at 11.

What else?

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