NASCAR: The real flaw that Kyle Busch’s Truck success exposes

Kyle Busch’s success in the NASCAR Truck Series exposes a flaw in the series, but that flaw has nothing to do with Kyle Busch being allowed to compete in lower series.

NASCAR has implemented stricter limitations on Cup Series drivers competing in the Xfinity Series and the Truck Series in recent years.

Cup Series drivers with five or more seasons of full-time experience in the Cup Series are permitted to compete in as many as five Xfinity Series races and five Truck Series races per year, with certain races, including playoff races, being off-limits.

This is down from seven and five, respectively, in 2018 and 2019, and this was down from 10 and seven in 2017.

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This rule has been widely referred to as the “Kyle Busch rule” because of the fact that he regularly competes in as many Xfinity Series and Truck Series races as he can.

Plus, he usually ends up winning, which many fans believe is his way of “stealing wins from the kids”.

Even with such strict limits now being in place, there are regular complaints that Busch among others are allowed to compete in as many races as they are at NASCAR’s second and third highest levels.

But this debate will go on forever, and the fact that Busch won his first start of the 2020 season in dominant fashion at Las Vegas Motor Speedway last month further added to that debate; he has now won a career-high seven consecutive Truck Series races going back to July of 2018 when he won at Pocono Raceway. His last loss came at Charlotte Motor Speedway in May of 2018; he went a perfect five for five last year.

Suffice it to say that when he is in the field, there is a far better chance that he wins than he doesn’t.

Now it has ignited a different debate, and it is one that actually has nothing to do with Kyle Busch nor any other Cup Series drivers competing in the series — on a surface level, that is.

Ahead of the 2020 season, the Truck Series playoff field expanded from eight to 10 drivers, and managing director Brad Moran stated that the change “will put a lot of emphasis on winning races”.

Let’s take a look at some of the numbers from past seasons.

Since 2016, when the current Championship 4 format was introduced for the series, there have never been more than 14 drivers to compete in all 23 races.

In 2018 and 2019, that number was down to 11.

There were between 15 and 17 full-time drivers in each year from 2016 to 2019, including the ones who had to miss at least one race.

The regular season consists of 16 races.

Having 10 different full-time drivers win at least once in 16 races is difficult enough with so few drivers competing.

There have never been more than six different regular season race winners among the eight playoff drivers.

At least two drivers have qualified for the playoffs on points in each of these four seasons.

Now dock five of those 16 races and assume Busch wins them, like he did a year ago; now you need 10 different winners in 11 races to actually “put a lot of emphasis on winning races”.

In reality, this change does the opposite. These two extra playoff spots will not be occupied by winners. I will make that guarantee right now. Take it to the bank.

Never before has more than 75% of the eight-driver playoff field been occupied by regular season winners, and in a 10-driver format, that percentage shrinks to just over half at 60%.

It’s not suddenly going to move to 100% with more playoff spots available. Not with Busch competing in five regular season races per year, anyway.

Mathematically speaking, there is less of an emphasis on winning than there has ever been. Busch’s success further highlights that because it limits opportunities for full-time drivers to find victory lane and punch their playoff tickets.

With Busch coming in and winning five of the 16 regular seasons races, even composing a 10-driver field of 60% winners may be tough because that leaves the full-time competitors with 11 other races.

How, exactly, does this “put a lot of emphasis on winning races” when most of the full-time field will be in the playoffs on points anyway?

The regular season practically doesn’t matter now, aside of the few playoff points that drivers can earn here and there to carry with them throughout the playoffs.

Why not have Busch come in and run every race? Why bother enforcing the limits? After all, Busch winning doesn’t lock anybody into the playoffs.

Winning is effectively optional now.

Even in an eight-driver format, a driver just won the title without winning a single race throughout the entire season. Matt Crafton, who hasn’t won a race in nearly three years, did it in 2019, and now the odds of it happening again are even higher with 10 drivers guaranteed to remain championship eligible after 16 of 23 races.

Hopefully Busch, or at least one of the full-time Cup Series drivers set to challenge him at some point in his remaining four starts this season for the $100,000 bounty, has enough success throughout the rest of the year to make the flaw in this new format crystal clear.

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Will this new NASCAR Truck Series playoff format last beyond the 2020 season? Could the success of Kyle Busch prompt a change to that format, even though the focus on his success tends to be on a change to the limitations on Cup Series drivers in NASCAR’s lower series?

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