IndyCar: The only ways Alex Palou can lose the championship

Alex Palou is set to enter the 2021 IndyCar season finale with a massive lead in the championship standings, but two other drivers can still win the title.

Over the last two weekends, Chip Ganassi Racing’s Alex Palou has turned a 10-point deficit into a 35-point lead over Arrow McLaren SP’s Pato O’Ward in the IndyCar championship standings.

Now there is just one race remaining on the 16-race 2021 schedule, and O’Ward and Team Penske’s Josef Newgarden are the only two drivers who still have a chance to take the championship away from Palou. Newgarden trails Palou by 48 points.

There is a maximum of 54 points on the table for each driver in each race: 50 for winning, one for leading at least one lap (so effectively 51 for winning), one for taking the pole position, and two for leading the most laps (effectively three since you must lead at least one lap to lead the most).

In the case of a points tiebreaker, the tiebreaker becomes wins. Palou has won three races this season while O’Ward and Newgarden have each won two.

If O’Ward or Newgarden win this Sunday’s season finale on the streets of Long Beach, California, they will be tied with Palou with three wins. The tiebreaker would then become second place finishes. Palou leads O’Ward two to one in that category. Newgarden has recorded three runner-up finishes.

So Palou has clinched the tiebreaker over O’Ward, meaning that O’Ward will need to outscore him by at least 36 points, not just 35, to win the title.

Newgarden, on the other hand, would clinch a tiebreaker over Palou by winning — which happens to be the only way he even has a shot to catch up to him on points.

In the off chance it comes down to a tie between Newgarden and O’Ward, Newgarden would hold the tiebreaker over O’Ward as well.

Now let’s take a look at the only scenarios in which Palou would lose his points lead.

For O’Ward to win…

O’Ward would need to score at least 41 points (second place finish plus one bonus point) to have a chance. In this scenario, he would need Palou to score just five points (25th place finish or worse). Here is a list of O’Ward’s winning possibilities.

• 41 points (second place finish plus one bonus point for either pole position or at least one lap led)
  • Palou must score 5 points (25th place finish or worse)
  • Newgarden must not win and take all four bonus points
• 42 points (second place finish plus pole position and at least one lap led)
  • Palou must score 6 points (24th place finish) or less
• 43 points (second place finish plus most laps led)
  • Palou must score 7 points (23rd place finish) or less
• 44 points (second place finish plus all bonus points)
  • Palou must score 8 points (22nd place finish) or less
• 51 points (win)
  • Palou must score 15 points (15th place finish) or less
• 52 points (win from pole position)
  • Palou must score 16 points (14th place finish) or less
• 53 points (win plus most laps led but no pole position)
  • Palou must score 17 points (13th place finish) or less
• 54 points (win plus all bonus points)
  • Palou must score 18 points (12th place finish) or less

For Newgarden to win…

Newgarden needs to win the race and get a whole lot of help. There is no scenario in which he can score fewer than 53 points (win plus most laps led but no pole position) and become a three-time champion this year.

• 53 points (win plus most laps led but no pole position)
  • Palou must score 5 points (25th place finish or worse)
  • O’Ward must score 40 points (second place finish) or less
• 54 points (win plus all bonus points)
  • Palou must score 6 points (24th place finish) or less
  • O’Ward must score 41 points (second place finish and at least one lap led) or less
    • With Newgarden having all four bonus points, 41 points for O’Ward could not come via a second place finish and a pole position, as Newgarden would have already taken pole.

So bottom line, Palou becomes the 2021 IndyCar champion with a top 11 finish in Sunday’s race no matter what else happens.

Be sure to tune in to NBC Sports Network at 3:00 p.m. ET this Sunday, September 26 for the live broadcast of the season-ending Acura Grand Prix of Long Beach from the streets of Long Beach, California, and start your free trial of FuboTV today if you have not already done so!