NASCAR: Can Justin Allgaier end this JR Motorsports trend?

JR Motorsports’ three NASCAR Xfinity Series championships came with drivers aged 22 or younger. Can 35-year-old Justin Allgaier change that trend?

Justin Allgaier enters the 2021 NASCAR Xfinity Series playoffs in third place in the championship standings, 24 points behind Austin Cindric and A.J. Allmendinger for the lead, and 15 points ahead of the round of 8 cut line.

The driver of the #7 Chevrolet for JR Motorsports has some momentum entering the postseason, with top 10 finishes in 11 of the last 13 races, including top five finishes in eight of those events. However, his most recent win came back in early May at Darlington Raceway.

Allgaier will make history for JRM if he can win his first career title this season. The team have had at least one driver aged 30 or older finish in the top four in points in seven of the last eight seasons, including Allgaier, but none of those drivers won a title.

JRM’s three championships came with drivers aged 22 or younger:  Chase Elliott in 2014 (18), William Byron in 2017 (19) and Tyler Reddick in 2018 (22).

For the veterans, Regan Smith finished in third place in points in 2013, second in 2014 and fourth in 2015; he was between 30 and 32 years old during that span (at the end of the season).

The playoff format was introduced to the Xfinity Series in 2016, a year that saw Allgaier replace Smith in the #7 Chevrolet and Elliott Sadler join the team. Sadler finished in second place in points in both 2016 and 2017 before finishing in fifth in his final full season in 2018. He was between 41 and 43 years old during that span (at the end of the season).

Allgaier joined the team as a 30-year-old and finished in third place in points in both 2016 and 2017. He finished in seventh in 2018, fourth in 2019 and second last year. He is now 35 years old.

Allgaier and Sadler combined to make six Championship 4 appearances with an average age of 35. The average age of all of the other drivers in a combined 14 Championship 4 appearances is 23. Since 2016, the champion’s average age is 22.

While JRM’s veterans have contended for championships, it’s the young drivers who are still undefeated. Can Allgaier change that?

Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Talladega Superspeedway and the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval are the scheduled races for the opening round of 12.

Allgaier has finishes of second, fifth and fourth place in the three fall races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, dating back to 2018. He has five top five finishes, seven top 10 finishes, one DNF and an average finish of 8.9 in nine races at the track since 2016.

He finished in second, eighth and third place in his first three starts at Talladega Superspeedway with JRM, but he has a DNF in three of his last four races there, with a best finish of 28th.

He has finishes of 15th, fourth and 23rd place at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval. So the playoff opener at Las Vegas Motor Speedway could give him his best chance to pull away from the cut line or win his way into the round of 8.

The round of 8 is scheduled to include races at Texas Motor Speedway, Kansas Speedway and Martinsville Speedway. Allgaier has four top 10 finishes in his last six starts at Texas Motor Speedway, with one DNF. He has an average finish of 11.7 at the track since 2016, and he finished in second place there in the spring.

He has four top 10 finishes in his last five starts at Kansas Speedway, with one DNF. Martinsville Speedway only recently returned to the Xfinity Series schedule, and he finished in second place there in the playoffs last year and ninth this past spring.

While none of Allgaier’s 16 career wins have come at these first six tracks on the playoff schedule, he has run well at them in the past and has some points to work with. And historically, making it to the Championship 4 hasn’t been a problem for him, having done it in four out of five seasons.

The season finale is scheduled to take place on Saturday, November 6 at Phoenix Raceway. With an even points situation for the sport’s final four, winning the title could and probably will require winning the race.

Allgaier has been hit or miss at Phoenix with JRM. He has six top five finishes and five finishes of eighth place or worse, including a worst finish of 24th. His six top five finishes do include a pair of wins, more recently at the playoff race in 2019, when this race was still the penultimate event on the calendar.

Allgaier has proven that he has what it takes to be a contender for the Xfinity Series title, but he will need to step it up at the right time throughout the playoffs, including in the season finale, to become the first veteran driver to win a championship for JRM.