NASCAR: Does Noah Gragson need a Championship 4 to prove himself?

In his third NASCAR Xfinity Series season with JR Motorsports, does Noah Gragson need a Championship 4 appearance to prove his worth?

If there is any NASCAR Xfinity Series race in which Noah Gragson’s career could be under pressure, it would be Saturday’s Dead On Tools 250 at Martinsville Speedway.

Gragson enters the penultimate race of the season, the final chance to advance to the Championship 4, in sixth place in the standings, 24 points below the cut line. He has yet to make the series’ final four in his third full-time season.

The driver of the #9 Chevrolet for JR Motorsports has failed to continue a trend of success for the car number. Chase Elliott won three races and the championship in 2014 before winning one race and finishing runner-up in points in 2015.

The team moved to the #1 Chevrolet in 2016 with Elliott Sadler, but the number itself was brought back with a new crew in 2017. William Byron won four races and the championship in the #9 Chevrolet that year before Tyler Reddick won two races and the title in 2018.

Gragson took over the ride in 2019 and finished in eighth place in points. In 2020, he won two races and finished in fifth. Crew chief David Elenz, who won the 2017 and 2018 titles, has remained the crew chief for Gragson for all three of his seasons.

Gragson appeared to be on track to return the #9 car to its title-contending form last year. His 17 top five finishes ranked second, his 25 top 10 finishes ranked third, and his 622 laps led ranked fourth.

He finished in second or third place in six of the last seven races, but the outlier was a 36th place result following an early wreck in the round of 8 at Kansas Speedway. That finish was too much to overcome through points, and he was unable to find victory lane, eliminating him in the semifinal round.

Given his past results at Martinsville Speedway, Gragson could be looked at as a favorite to avoid a similar playoff outcome. He finished in third place at the track in 2020 and recorded a runner-up finish this past spring. Two of his four career wins have come on short tracks (Bristol Motor Speedway and Richmond Raceway), and he has a 4.9 average finish on short tracks since last season.

It could take advancing to his first Championship 4 to prove his worth as a driver capable of being successful when it matters most.

But advancing now may not be as important as it seems. If there’s one good sign for Gragson, it’s the fact that his plans for next year do not depend on this one race. JR Motorsports signed the driver to a fourth season for 2022, so he will have another chance to prove himself in top-tier equipment regardless of how he finishes the 2021 season.

There are also drivers with limited Xfinity Series success who have found NASCAR Cup Series rides with contending teams.

Alex Bowman ran only one near-full-time season in the Xfinity Series, running for an underfunded RAB Racing team and finishing in 11th place in points in 2013. He raced in select events after that, including 11 with JR Motorsports, where he recorded seven top 10 finishes.

Despite his limited Xfinity Series experience, he proved himself with strong runs in competitive equipment and as a test driver for Hendrick Motorsports, earning him a full-time Cup Series ride with Hendrick Motorsports beginning in 2018.

Another example is Harrison Burton. He won four races, but he finished in eighth place in points for Joe Gibbs Racing in his first full Xfinity Series season last year.

Winless this season, he sits in eighth in points and in a must-win situation heading into the round of 8 finale. Despite these stats, he is set to move to the Cup Series for 2022, replacing Matt DiBenedetto at Wood Brothers Racing.

These drivers have shown that winning championships and contending on finale day are not the only ways to prove their worth to Cup Series teams.

Gragson has earned a reputation of being an aggressive driver, willing to get into feuds and even using a “checkers or wreckers” approach. Getting more time to mature and cut his teeth at the Xfinity Series level could help make him more appealing to a Cup Series team.

He has also shown that he can get better with time. He improved his points finish from 10th to second between two full-time NASCAR Truck Series campaigns and showed clear improvement from 2019 to 2020 in the Xfinity Series. Many of his stats are down this year, but his eight DNFs are a big part of the reason why.

Gragson has 40 top five finishes, 69 top 10 finishes and an average finish of 10.4 in 100 career Xfinity Series starts. He has proven that he can compete at this level. While failing to advance to the Championship 4 won’t help him look like a driver capable of success when it matters most, it will not make or break his career.