NASCAR: Alarming trend could be huge for Martin Truex Jr.

Martin Truex Jr. is considered the underdog to win the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series championship, but take that with a grain of salt.

The fourth and final driver to qualify for the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship 4 was Joe Gibbs Racing’s Martin Truex Jr., who is set to make his first Championship 4 appearance since 2019 in this Sunday afternoon’s season finale at Phoenix Raceway.

Truex is set to square off against teammate Denny Hamlin as well as Hendrick Motorsports teammates Kyle Larson and reigning champion Chase Elliott in Sunday’s 312-lap race around the four-turn, 1.022-mile (1.645-kilometer) in Avondale, Arizona with a chance to win what would be his second championship.

The 2017 champion finished in second place among the Championship 4 contenders when he returned to the winner-take-all round in both 2018 and 2019 before he missed out in 2020.

This year, he is listed by WynnBET as the biggest underdog to win the title.

Take a look at the championship odds for these four contenders.

• Kyle Larson: +145
• Chase Elliott: +250
• Denny Hamlin: +350
• Martin Truex Jr.: +400

Make your pick now on WynnBET.

There are a million reasons you could use to justify these odds, and there are a million reasons you could use to change them one way or another.

But one reason why you should take Truex’s status as the “underdog” with a grain of salt is his recent history at venues where he has ended long win droughts, and this should alarm his fellow championship contenders.

Truex won the March race at Phoenix Raceway despite having never found victory lane there in 30 previous attempts.

Two other venues where Truex recently earned his first victory are Richmond Raceway and Martinsville Speedway. He started 0 for 26 at the former and 0 for 27 at the latter.

He won at Richmond Raceway for the first time in April 2019, and he immediately added another win in his next start there that September.

He won at Martinsville Speedway for the first time in October 2019, and he immediately added another win in his next start there the following June.

Sensing a trend here?

Could Truex do what he has done at those two tracks and go back-to-back at Phoenix Raceway now that he has finally gotten the monkey off his back? If he does, he would be crowned 2021 champion.

All three of these tracks use the 750-horsepower, low downforce package, where Truex has thrived this year.

The 2021 season has seen him secure his third victory at Richmond Raceway and his third victory at Martinsville Speedway to go along with his first victory at Phoenix Raceway, and he also won at Darlington Raceway, another track where this particular package is used.

It’s hard to argue against Larson, whose nine wins are more than twice as many as any other driver in the field (Truex and Alex Bowman, four), being the overwhelming favorite, and it’s hard to make a strong case of disagreement with the odds of Elliott or Hamlin as well.

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But Truex has all the reason in the world to give himself extra bulletin board material heading into this weekend if he wants it.

The NASCAR Cup Series Championship 4 race is set to be broadcast live from Phoenix Raceway on NBC beginning at 3:00 p.m. ET this afternoon. Will Truex hold off Hamlin, Larson and Elliott to win the title? Start your free trial of FuboTV today!