Formula 1: Mercedes had two chances to win it, and they couldn’t

While easy to blame the outcome on the FIA’s lapped car decision ahead of the one-lap shootout, Mercedes twice blew the opportunity to deliver Lewis Hamilton an eighth Formula 1 world championship.

It’s a decision that will forever be debated, irrespective of how far their appeals go, given the effect that it had on the lineup ahead of the one-lap shootout to determine the 2021 Formula 1 world champion.

With much newer tires, Red Bull’s Max Verstappen passed Mercedes’ Lewis Hamilton in turn five of the 16-turn, 3.281-mile (5.280-kilometer) Yas Marina Circuit on Yas Island in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates on lap 58 of 58.

Despite two serious challenges from Hamilton throughout the rest of the lap, Verstappen prevailed by 2.256 seconds to secure his first world title ahead of the seven-time and four-time reigning champion.

Hamilton led 51 of the first 57 laps. Verstappen led only lap 58.

For Mercedes, it didn’t have to be this way, and they had two chances to make sure it wasn’t.

While Verstappen was at a pace disadvantage throughout the entire race, Hamilton being in the lead during a late virtual safety car period and a later safety car period led to his team making conservative strategy calls that, in hindsight, were what put them in a position of vulnerability when the controversy ensued.

Verstappen came into the pits for new hard tires during the virtual safety car period. Hamilton did not. Verstappen made up a decent chunk of time on Hamilton during the ensuing stint, but his times began to fade, and it was obvious that he didn’t have enough to fully close the gap by the checkered flag.

Then the Nicholas Latifi crash happened with under six laps remaining, and the safety car was deployed, prompting tire strategy attempt number two for Red Bull.

During the safety car period, which actually stacked up the field, Verstappen came into the pits for new soft tires. There were questions about whether or not the race would restart, but he had nothing to lose at this point. Had the race not restarted, it didn’t matter if he was running in second place or 12th as far as the championship battle was concerned.

Hamilton, again, stayed out.

The 36-year-old Briton had expressed concern about his tires throughout the stint, so he was none too pleased with the way things unfolded with the late safety car — and the fact that his rival took new tires.

After a confusing and controversial sequence of events, the race did restart with one lap to go, and the rest is history.

It goes without saying that, had Hamilton pit on either occasion, he would have relinquished the lead to Verstappen.

Verstappen had the advantage in that he could do whatever Hamilton did not do, given the fact that he was running in second place.

It was an advantage that he did not have during the opening stint, since he started on the soft tires while Hamilton started on the medium tires.

However, because of the advantage that newer tires had, coupled with the pace advantage of the Mercedes as well as the lead that Hamilton had built up, it would not have taken Hamilton much time to run down the Red Bull had he made an extra stop.

And if Hamilton had pit during the final safety car period, Verstappen would not have.

If there had been a restart and one-lap shootout under that scenario, and that whole controversial lapped car process had played out the same way, we’re looking at Hamilton passing Verstappen for an eighth world title, not the other way around for a first.

But what if the race didn’t restart? Unlike Verstappen, Hamilton had something to lose here.

And it was a gamble that ultimately didn’t pay off.

The strategical advantage that Red Bull had — by being at an overall disadvantage throughout the race — gave Verstappen a shot.

Some have suggested the initial decision to not let the lapped cars by influenced Mercedes’ decision not to pit, but that obviously wasn’t the case. After Verstappen had already pitted, Hamilton was specifically told on the radio that the lapped cars would be sent past the safety car. The question was whether or not there would be enough time.

It was after this discussion took place that the confusion ensued, first with the statement that they would not be sent past and then with the update that they would. And it was this confusion which led to a restart with Hamilton ahead of a charging Verstappen on much newer tires.

Does this change the controversial aspect of what happened? Of course not. Those decisions will be discussed decades from now. But given the tire advantage and the obvious “do what they don’t do” aspect of Red Bull’s strategical decisions, Mercedes could have absolutely put Hamilton in a position where he wasn’t nearly as vulnerable on a late restart.