Formula 1: Should this trend worry Lewis Hamilton fans?

Are the changes in Lewis Hamilton’s 2022 Formula 1 world championship odds indicative that he won’t be back for next season?

After losing what would have been a record-breaking eighth Formula 1 world championship on the final lap of the 2021 season to Red Bull’s Max Verstappen in the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix at Yas Marina Circuit three Sundays ago, Mercedes’ Lewis Hamilton has remained silent.

Meanwhile, the media have been anything but, speculating that Hamilton, despite signing a deal this past summer that extends through the 2023 season, will walk away from the sport before the 2022 season begins, given the nature by which title number eight was lost.

As there were last year (under a much different set of circumstances, of course), there have been conflicting reports about Hamilton’s future since the events of Sunday, December 12.

Some have said that he has told Mercedes that he will continue driving. Others have said that retirement is not only a possibility but a likely scenario.

Our guess is that until Hamilton officially breaks his public silence, it’s quite literally anybody’s guess.

However, the public appear to be shifting their views on this very situation, based on the betting odds for the 2022 world championship.

Here is how the odds looked for Hamilton and the other three drivers listed among the four favorites the day after the 2021 season ended, courtesy of WynnBET.

NOTE: -112 means a $112 bet wins $100 ($212 payout); +250 means a $100 bet wins $250 ($350 payout).

• Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes: -112
• Max Verstappen, Red Bull: +250
• George Russell, Mercedes: +600
• Charles Leclerc, Ferrari: +1400

Hamilton opened as a pretty solid favorite, especially considering how well Verstappen performed throughout the 2021 season en route to securing his first world title, plus the fact that there are still quite a few unknowns, to say the very least, heading into the 2022 season with the new rules and regulations set to take effect.

Nobody really knows for sure which drivers and which teams will have the upper hand in this brand-new era of the sport.

But since then, the odds have steadily gotten longer for Hamilton while getting shorter for these other drivers, specifically George Russell, who is set to join the seven-time world champion at the Silver Arrows as the replacement for Valtteri Bottas next year.

Take a look at what the odds are now for Hamilton, Verstappen, Russell and Charles Leclerc.

• Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes: +130
• Max Verstappen, Red Bull: +225
• George Russell, Mercedes: +450
• Charles Leclerc, Ferrari: +1100

Make your pick now on WynnBET.

Hamilton is still the favorite, but his implied chances of winning next year’s title have dropped by nearly 10% (52.83% to 43.48%).

The fact that the odds of his new teammate (or will he be?) have shortened considerably and the fact that his implied chance of winning the title has increased more so than it has for the other two is also quite noteworthy, considering the situation into which Mercedes would be thrown if Hamilton does indeed walk away.

Conversely, if you believe the reports of a Hamilton return, it may be smart to make your bet now before a return is confirmed. Surely, if that were to happen, those odds would shorten, so there would be considerable value there right now.

On the other hand, if you believe that he will return but that his return won’t be confirmed for a while, perhaps you could wait for even more value here later in the offseason.

And naturally, if you’re convinced that he won’t return, you’d be smart to put money on all three of the others, considering you’d be guaranteed a profit at long as one of them wins (see more on that method here).

You certainly wouldn’t want to wait for Hamilton to retire to make that bet, as those odds would all see quite a drastic shift.

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