NASCAR: Richmond a sign of Next Gen ‘change’?

The Next Gen era in the NASCAR Cup Series is off to an unpredictable start, but Denny Hamlin’s win at Richmond Raceway could signal a change.

A new era of NASCAR Cup Series racing with the Gen 7 “Next Gen” car has been met with an unprecedented amount of parity, but Denny Hamlin’s win at Richmond Raceway could signal a change.

There were six different winners in as many races entering Sunday’s race at the four-turn, 0.75-mile (1.207-kilometer) oval in Richmond, Virginia, including three first-time winners in Austin Cindric, Chase Briscoe, and Ross Chastain.

A record streak of winners under the age of 30 was also sitting at 12 consecutive races, dating back to October 2021.

But on Sunday, it was the experience of Hamlin and crew chief Chris Gabehart that won with pit strategy.

A late charge saw Hamlin take the lead with five laps to go in the 400-lap race, and he held on for his first win of the year. It was Hamlin’s fourth win at the track and Joe Gibbs Racing’s ninth win in the last 13 races there.

For perhaps the first time this season, experience at a track mattered more than lessons learned about the car.

“(Kevin) Harvick’s run more laps than I have around here but (Martin) Truex (Jr.), myself, Harvick, we’ve got a ton (of laps) around here,” said Hamlin in a post-race media availability.

“When our car’s not performing how we need it to perform, we can do things to manipulate it to maximize lap time to at least put us in the game. I think being a veteran of the sport probably helps in those instances.”

The driver whom Hamlin passed late in the race was William Byron. Byron was on a different pit strategy, and had he held onto the lead, he would’ve become the first repeat winner of the 2022 season.

While the top 21 drivers in the point standings are separated by less than 100 points, it’s still last season’s dominant team that has found a way to the top.

Hendrick Motorsports have three drivers in the top seven, with defending champion Kyle Larson sitting in 12th place. Larson, Byron, and Alex Bowman have each won a race. Chase Elliott, who is tied for the points lead, hasn’t yet done so.

Given the team’s early success, Byron nearly becoming a repeat winner, and the veteran Hamlin finding victory lane, it seems that the unpredictability of NASCAR’s Next Gen era may be fading.

But not so fast. While Hamlin won at Richmond Raceway and Joey Logano won the other preseason short track exhibition race, NASCAR’s showcase at a pop-up Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum track, the veteran edge may not exist for this Saturday night’s race at Martinsville Speedway.

Gabehart talked about the Next Gen car and what it could mean for Hamlin at the track known as “The Paperclip”.

“We just took 80 horsepower away from him, we gave him a two-inch wider tire, it’s a 200-pound heavier car, it’s got a higher center of gravity and it’s got better brakes,” said Gabehart in a media availability. “He’s going to go to Martinsville and the first 10 laps (he’ll) be as lost as last year’s Easter egg because he was so honed in on what was perfection for Martinsville for that (previous) car over so many years and this car’s going to be wildly different.”

Hamlin believes that things will remain impossible to predict until the series goes back to tracks for a second time. The first repeat track is scheduled to be Atlanta Motor Speedway on Sunday, July 10.

The unpredictability of the car is making it hard for teams to compare data between similar tracks, which is why it could take a second visit to find an edge.

“We struggled at Phoenix (Raceway) and went to a Darlington (Raceway) test and I learned a ton about Phoenix at Darlington that I helped apply to this race,” said Gabehart. “You’ve got to be learning each and every day, each and every week.”

Whether it happens in the next few races or during repeat track visits, the Next Gen car will eventually become more predictable, which could slow down the wave of parity that we’ve seen so far this season.

“You’ve got all the brilliant people who I get a chance to work with day in and day out, you aren’t going to hold people like that back,” said Gabehart. “You’ve got to just keep working, stay the course and you’ll get your wins.”

If there’s one thing we can predict about the Next Gen car, it’s that the top teams will figure things out with time. When that time will come is hard to predict, but Hamlin’s victory at Richmond Raceway could be a sign that change is starting to happen in NASCAR’s Next Gen era.