Formula 1 change raises eyebrows after Melbourne

Charles Leclerc is finally the favorite to win the 2022 Formula 1 world championship, but considering his start to the season, he’s not as heavy of a favorite as you might think.

Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc continued his hot start to the 2022 Formula 1 season on Sunday in Melbourne, dominating the Australian Grand Prix for the fourth win of his career and his second in three races so far this year.

And for the first time, he is officially the betting favorite to win this year’s world championship, according to WynnBET.

Following the latest odds change, Leclerc is listed as the favorite at -160 (bet $160 to win $100). Reigning champion Max Verstappen is listed as the second favorite at +225 (bet $100 to win $225).

Here are the odds for the top six drivers.

• Charles Leclerc, Ferrari: -160
• Max Verstappen, Red Bull: +225
• Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes: +800
• Carlos Sainz Jr., Ferrari: +1400
• George Russell, Mercedes: +2250
• Sergio Perez, Red Bull: +2500

Considering Leclerc’s start to the season, his odds are almost too good to pass up, even at odds-on.

The 24-year-old Monegasque already has a 34-point lead in the driver standings, one which can’t be made up in a single race weekend, and the driver in second place, George Russell, is in a Mercedes car that has shown absolutely no sign of actually competing at the front for race wins.

While it is widely expected that the Silver Arrows will make improvements throughout the season, it can’t be denied that other teams will as well, and the massive gap to Ferrari is one that isn’t going to close overnight.

Russell is in second place without a single top two finish, while Leclerc has finished no lower than second thus far. The main reason why Russell is here is because of the fact that he is one of only three drivers (aside from Leclerc) who have scored points in every race.

None of the others drive for Ferrari or Red Bull, the clear top two quickest teams this season. Because of that, Leclerc literally has more points on his own (71) than any individual constructor (Mercedes sit in second place behind Ferrari at 104 with 65).

And here is another thing to consider. At no point during the 2021 season was the gap between the top two drivers, Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton, more than 33 points. Yet at one point, Verstappen found himself as a -500 favorite during the summer months, when there were still several races left on the calendar.

Leclerc, already up by 34 points and having shown no signs of any true weaknesses, is only -160?

Even with 20 races to go, that seems quite a bit too low. Let’s further put this in perspective. When the offseason began, Leclerc found himself as the fourth favorite at +1400, and throughout the offseason, amid cautious optimism that the Scuderia may really be able to fight at the front once again, his odds steadily improved.

When the season finally began, they were in the +400 to +600 range. Even after winning the season opener in Bahrain, he was only a +200 co-favorite with Verstappen, who had been forced to retire from the race with a fuel pump issue.

After Verstappen won the following race in Jeddah, he became the favorite again, even with Leclerc having finished directly behind him in second place to maintain a solid points lead.

Sure, it’s hard to deny that Verstappen should still be a serious championship threat, provided Red Bull can give him a car actually capable of finishing a race. If not for the reliability issues, he would trail Leclerc by just 10 points with one win and two runner-up results, as the difference between race wins and runner-up finishes is seven points and Leclerc has recorded all three fastest laps for three additional points.

But even last year, Verstappen was never more than 14 points out of the lead of the driver standings, and he already sits 46 points behind. He has even said that he has no reason to believe he can defend his title, given the issues Red Bull have faced.

Even victories in the next seven races wouldn’t guarantee he takes the lead in the standings. Think about that: he could have eight wins in 10 races and still trail Leclerc.

Meanwhile, Leclerc could afford to finish in second place four races in a row and not risk losing the lead, even if one of the other five contenders wins all four races and does so with the fastest lap.

Of course, fans of the Prancing Horse, as excited as they are that this could finally be their year, have felt that past years could very well be their years also, only for things to come crashing down when they least expected them to.

So there is still a sense of cautious optimism here, as they still haven’t won a constructor championship since 2008, and they haven’t won a driver championship since 2007 with Kimi Raikkonen.

But -160 odds after the start that Leclerc has had are almost too good to pass up. And, quite frankly, so are Ferrari’s odds to win the constructor title at -140, ahead of Red Bull at +175 and Mercedes at +475.

The fourth race of the 23-race 2022 Formula 1 season, the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix at Autodromo Internazionale Enzo e Dino Ferrari (Imola), is set to be broadcast live on ESPN beginning at 9:00 a.m. ET on Sunday, April 24.