NASCAR: Denny Hamlin isn’t out of the woods yet

Denny Hamlin may have already won a race in the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series season, but he still isn’t completely safe in terms of making the playoffs.

After an abysmal start to the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series season, Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin won the early April race at Richmond Raceway, his home track. It looked as though momentum had begun to shift for him after a rocky start to the Gen 7 era.

But through nine races, that win remains his lone top 12 finish of 2022.

While the playoff format is widely believed to be a “win and in” format, provided winners finish the regular season in the top 30 in the point standings, the 41-year-old Chesterfield, Virginia still isn’t out of the woods as it pertains to potentially missing the postseason for the first time since 2013.

Hamlin is pretty much a lock to finish in the top 30, of course; it would be somewhat embarrassing if any winner failed to do so in a series with just 32 full-time drivers. What could keep him from the postseason field is if more than 16 regular season winners emerge.

Technically, drivers aren’t locked into the playoffs unless they earn two regular season victories.

This is something that only one of the season’s eight winners has done so far this year (Hendrick Motorsports’ William Byron).

The reason for this is the fact that the 16 playoff spots go to the regular season points champion, whether he wins any of the 26 regular season races or not, and the 15 drivers who rank next highest in wins. There can be no more than 13 two-race winners in the regular season.

In the event of more than 16 winners, the tiebreaker among single-race winners becomes points. It’s really no different than the concept that the non-winners who rank highest in points fill in the open spots when there are fewer than 16 winners.

And among the seven single-race winners so far this season, Hamlin is by far the lowest in the point standings.

Hamlin sits in 23rd place in the standings with 159 points, which is 63 points lower than the next lowest winner on the list. That driver, Team Penske rookie Austin Cindric, sits in 14th with 222 points.

To make matters worse for Hamlin is the fact that the current points leader, Hendrick Motorsports’ Chase Elliott, hasn’t yet won.

So technically nine playoff spots, not just eight, are currently occupied. Even if Elliott weren’t leading, Team Penske teammates Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano sit right behind him in second and third place, respectively, and they also haven’t won.

And there are still 17 regular season races to go for more drivers to potentially lock in with wins. Suffice it to say that there have been far more than 16 drivers who have proven to be capable of winning thus far in what has been a season full of parity with the Next Gen car.

Of course, Hamlin could very well turn his season around and bring himself to a better position in points — and possibly even lock himself into the postseason with a second win. At the very least, it’s certainly hard to see his 23.11 average finish, good for 27th best in the series, not improving.

Will the 2022 season’s 10th race see a ninth different winner emerge? This race, the GEICO 500, is set to be broadcast live on Fox from Talladega Superspeedway this Sunday, April 24 beginning at 3:00 p.m. ET. FuboTV is offering all fans a free trial, so start yours today if you haven’t yet done so!