NASCAR: The playoff scenario that everyone keeps ignoring

Ryan Blaney or Martin Truex Jr.? That is the question that many are asking, but it may not be relevant when it comes to the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs.

Stewart-Haas Racing’s Kevin Harvick found victory lane for the first time in almost two years on Sunday at Michigan International Speedway, and his FireKeepers Casino 400 victory made him the 15th different winner through the first 23 races of the NASCAR Cup Series season.

With 15 winners so far this season, this means that there is only one winless driver currently above the playoff cut line. With three races remaining on the regular season schedule, it’s very possible that no winless drivers will qualify for the postseason.

The 16th and final driver in the provisional playoff picture is Team Penske’s Ryan Blaney, and Blaney ranks second in the point standings.

The first driver on the outside looking in? Joe Gibbs Racing’s Martin Truex Jr., who is just one point out of third place but would be battling for 17th as opposed to a second championship if the playoff started today.

With just one more spot officially “open”, it’s very possible that two of the sport’s top three drivers will miss the playoffs.

The gap between Blaney and Truex is just 19 points right now, meaning that Truex could very well pass the driver of the #12 Ford and take that 16th spot before the regular season ends.

So the question that keeps being asked is this: Blaney, Truex, or neither?

But one option is missing.

Despite the fact that 15 drivers have already won this year, the fact that neither Blaney nor Truex has found victory lane, and the fact that there is only one spot still occupied by a non-winner, both could still qualify for the playoffs.

Why? Because both of them still control their own destiny.

If Blaney and Truex both win before the regular season ends, which is a decent possibility considering their history at the remaining tracks (Richmond Raceway, Watkins Glen International, and Daytona International Speedway) on the schedule, they will both be in the playoffs.

That scenario would, of course, produce 17 (or possibly even 18) different winners. But they would both be in, as neither one is even remotely close to being at risk of finishing the regular season as the lowest placed single-race winner (or among the two lowest placed single-race winners).

Right now, the lowest placed single-race winner is 23XI Racing’s Kurt Busch. Busch sits in 20th place in the point standings, 224 points behind Truex and 243 behind Blaney.

The second lowest placed single-race winner is Team Penske rookie Austin Cindric. Cindric sits in 16th place in the point standings, 178 points behind Truex and 197 behind Blaney.