NASCAR: Conspiracy theory emerges after Kurt Busch announcement

Some believe that Kurt Busch withdrew from the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs to help Joe Gibbs Racing, Martin Truex Jr., and Toyota.

Before this weekend’s 2022 NASCAR Cup Series regular season finale at Daytona International Speedway, 23XI Racing’s Kurt Busch announced that he would be withdrawing his medical waiver request to be a part of the upcoming four-round, 10-race playoffs.

Busch was left with concussion-like symptoms following a qualifying crash at Pocono Raceway in late July, and he has been sidelined for each of the last five (soon to be six) races.

Joe Gibbs Racing Xfinity Series driver Ty Gibbs has replaced him behind the wheel of the #45 Toyota since then, and he is set to continue to do so.

Busch won the race at Kansas Speedway back in mid-May, and because of the fact that (a) he is still locked into the top 30 in the point standings and (b) the regular season cannot conclude with more than 16 winners, his medical waiver secured him a playoff spot.

Without that waiver, however, he has given up his spot, and only 14 of the 15 winners are locked in.

This means that there are two spots open, not just one, heading into Saturday night’s 160-lap Coke Zero Sugar 400 around the four-turn, 2.5-mile (4.023-kilometer) high-banked Daytona Beach, Florida oval.

Prior to the announcement, Team Penske’s Ryan Blaney had a 25-point advantage over Joe Gibbs Racing’s Martin Truex Jr. for the 16th and final spot.

With 60 points on the table at Daytona, Truex was the only driver who could possibly pass Blaney and take that spot on the strength of his point total. The next closest non-winner, Petty GMS Motorsports’ Erik Jones, trails Truex by 187 points and Blaney by 212. Jones, along with 12 other non-winners, are in must-win situations.

Now, both Blaney and Truex are above the cut line, and nobody can pass either one of them on points, leading to the suggestion that Busch’s withdrawal of the medical waiver was orchestrated by Joe Gibbs Racing, which have a technical alliance with 23XI Racing, and Toyota.

In reality, that wouldn’t make a ton of sense.

While the announcement certainly bolsters Truex’s playoff chances, since now there absolutely needs to be a new winner for him not to make it, he still doesn’t have as good of a chance to make it as Blaney does.

Truex could still miss the playoffs if a new winner emerges and he doesn’t pass Blaney in points. Considering Truex’s history in superspeedway races (zero career wins) and Blaney’s history in the same (three wins since October 2019, including last year’s Coke Zero Sugar 400), making up a 25-point gap is a massive task. Counting against a new winner is a bit risky too, considering the nature of superspeedway racing.

In reality, this announcement helps Blaney more than anybody. He would have been out with a new winner, even if he had finished the regular season finale in second place and finished the regular season in second in the point standings. Now he can only miss if a new winner emerges and Truex passes him in points.

Team co-owner Denny Hamlin confirmed that this decision was truly made by Busch and nobody else, and he pointed to the fact that he had been behind his driver throughout the entire process as evidence of that.

Additionally, while this situation may prove beneficial to Truex, it doesn’t necessarily help Joe Gibbs Racing or Toyota. The #45 team’s points are tied to the #45 team, no matter who the driver is, so the #45 team is still one of the 16 teams set to compete for the owner championship.

As of now, the #19 team is on the outside (17th place) looking in, and from an organizational standpoint, the owner championship is where the money is at.

Considering the status of the #19 team, with Truex sitting in sixth place in the driver standings, compared to the status of the #45 team, with Gibbs behind the wheel basically just trying to get all the experience he can, the fact that the #45 team is in the playoffs and the #19 team is likely to miss the playoffs may actually be a detriment to Toyota, since the higher championship upside is clearly with the latter.

Don’t miss the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series regular season-ending Coke Zero Sugar 400. NBC is set to broadcast the race live from Daytona International Speedway beginning at 7:00 p.m. ET this evening, so begin a free trial of FuboTV now!