IndyCar: The biggest lie about the championship battle

The fact that IndyCar’s championship battle is being billed as a four-driver battle is borderline disrespectful, considering who is in fifth.

There are just two races remaining on the 2022 IndyCar schedule, and the championship battle is as tight as it has ever been.

Portland International Raceway is scheduled to host the season’s 16th and penultimate race this coming Sunday, September 4, and WeatherTech Raceway Laguna Seca is scheduled to host the season finale for the first time since 2019 on Sunday, September 11.

There are four drivers separated by just 17 points at the top of the championship standings, with Team Penske’s Will Power leading the way.

Power has led the standings after each of the last three races, but teammate Josef Newgarden is as close as he has ever been during that span after securing a season-high fifth win of the year at World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway two weekends ago. The gap between the two former champions is now just three points.

Then 11 points behind Newgarden is Chip Ganassi Racing’s Scott Dixon, who sits three points ahead of teammate Marcus Ericsson.

But the idea that it’s only a four-driver championship battle is borderline disrespectful.

Sitting in fifth place, 43 points behind Power, is Chip Ganassi Racing’s Alex Palou, the reigning series champion.

It will be tough for the 25-year-old Spaniard to make up this deficit in just two race weekends, with 54 points on offer each weekend. Plus, with all competitors guaranteed to score five points, only 49 points can be made up on a given competitor over the course of the weekend.

But considering what Palou did at Portland International Raceway and WeatherTech Raceway Laguna Seca last year — and in his first ever starts at the tracks, no less — the idea that he is out of the battle is straight-up ridiculous.

Sure, Palou has not yet won a race this year. But he has been consistent, and he would have won last year’s championship even without winning a race. One of the three races he did win took place at Portland International Raceway, and he finished runner-up at WeatherTech Raceway Laguna Seca.

With 92 points in these two races last year, he scored at least 36 more points than any of the four drivers ahead of him in the championship standings.

Yet he is ranked seventh, not fifth, in championship odds.

Of the seven drivers still mathematically alive to win this year’s title, Palou is listed as the least likely driver (+1400 odds) to win, even behind Team Penske’s Scott McLaughlin and Arrow McLaren SP’s Pato O’Ward (both +1000).

McLaughlin and O’Ward face deficits that cannot be made up in a single race weekend.

Here is how the standings look among these seven drivers.

Rank – Driver – Points (Behind)
1 – Will Power – 482 (0)
2 – Josef Newgarden – 479 (-3)
3 – Scott Dixon – 468 (-14)
4 – Marcus Ericsson – 465 (-17)
5 – Alex Palou – 439 (-43)
6 – Scott McLaughlin – 428 (-54)
7 – Pato O’Ward – 424 (-58)

Here is how many points each driver scored last year at the two tracks remaining on this year’s schedule.

Rank – Driver – Points (Behind)

1 – Alex Palou – 92 (0)
2 – Josef Newgarden – 56 (-36)
3 – Marcus Ericsson – 55 (-37)
4 – Scott Dixon – 53 (-39)
5 – Pato O’Ward – 47 (-45)
6 – Scott McLaughlin – 41 (-51)
7 – Will Power – 22 (-70)

While we’ll probably concede that it’s not quite a seven-driver battle, even though there are seven drivers still mathematically in the fight, it’s certainly not a four-driver battle either. Alex Palou is absolutely still in the fight to win a second straight IndyCar championship.

Start a free trial of FuboTV now and don’t miss either one of the 2022 IndyCar season’s final two races! Both races are set to be broadcast live on NBC beginning at 3:00 p.m. ET on their respective dates.