NASCAR: Kyle Busch to 23XI Racing in 2023?

Could Kyle Busch find a way to stay at Toyota for the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series season, even if that includes a departure from Joe Gibbs Racing?

Kyle Busch’s contract status with Joe Gibbs Racing has been the focal point of much of this year’s NASCAR Cup Series silly season. The sport’s winningest active driver is without a deal to return to the #18 Toyota in 2023, and with longtime partner M&M’s leaving after the 2022 season, sponsorship is needed to get a deal done.

Despite a few early promising developments, including one in particular, things don’t seem to have progressed much, if at all, and there still hasn’t been anything to announce.

Logic would suggest that if Joe Gibbs Racing and Toyota can’t come up with a deal to bring him back behind the wheel of the #18 car, Busch would be moving on from Toyota, considering the fact that there is only one other Toyota team in the Cup Series and that team is affiliated with Joe Gibbs Racing.

However, don’t assume that this is a guarantee. 23XI Racing could very well be on the table.

It is important to note that this isn’t a situation that appears to have resulted in many burnt bridges. All sides have long appeared to be working toward a common goal, but with the reality lurking in the back of their minds that it might not be possible.

In other words, don’t expect multiple teams to announce they’ve signed Busch, like we’ve seen happen in other racing series this summer.

Busch has been very candid about the fact that he wants to be back, but he has also admitted that he has spoken to — and gotten offers from — other teams. And he has even publicly admitted that he is willing to take a pay cut to return to Joe Gibbs Racing for a 16th season.

There are several elements that make Busch to 23XI Racing an interesting scenario — and some of those elements even revolve around some current uncertainties.

23XI Racing already announced that Tyler Reddick is set to join the team for the 2024 season. But a major detail was left out of that announcement: which car will he drive?

Would he replace Bubba Wallace behind the wheel of the #23 Toyota? Would he replace Kurt Busch behind the wheel of the #45 Toyota? Would he drive a third car, and if so, would the Denny Hamlin and Michael Jordan-owned team purchase a charter?

Wallace, who had been under contract through 2023, has since signed a multi-year extension with the team, and Kurt Busch is under contract through 2023.

Hamlin, who competes for Joe Gibbs Racing himself, stated earlier this year that he was going to be pausing the team’s growth until NASCAR’s business model changes, though he has indeed been seeking a potential third charter.

So would the team add a third car for Kyle Busch?

It seems fairly obvious that Kurt Busch is nearing the end of his career. He recently hinted that the 2023 season could be his last, so it would make sense for Reddick to replace him in 2024. That wouldn’t necessarily require an expansion to three cars.

But could recent health concerns, stemming from a qualifying wreck at Pocono Raceway that has led him to miss six (going on seven and likely more) straight races, lead to the elder Busch making a decision to retire a year early?

Could his younger brother’s career uncertainty play a role in that decision? It’s certainly possible. But how much would Kyle benefit from simply keeping Reddick’s seat warm for a year, unless that simply results in him moving to Richard Childress Racing in 2024 via a straight-up seat swap?

Richard Childress’s team is, after all, reportedly still in the mix.

But it still could come down to that third car, which is something the team do undoubtedly want to add. It’s just a matter of when the time is right.

Look, “business model” is important and all, but the timing is right when Kyle Busch is available.

The move would keep Kyle Busch tied to Joe Gibbs Racing and Toyota, and it would also allow the team to promote Ty Gibbs to the Cup Series full-time, a move that seems more and more inevitable with how he is progressing, both in the Xfinity Series and as Kurt Busch’s temporary replacement in the Cup Series.

And if this scenario were to play out, it would be quite ironic, considering the fact that when Kurt Busch was announced as Wallace’s 2022 teammate last summer, ESPN mistakenly reported that it was Kyle Busch who was set to join the team.