NASCAR: Dark horse replacement for Kyle Busch in 2023?

Kyle Busch will not return to Joe Gibbs Racing for the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series season. Could the team think outside the box in terms of his replacement?

The key focal point of NASCAR Cup Series silly season, especially following the announcement that Martin Truex Jr. plans to return to Joe Gibbs Racing, has been the situation of teammate Kyle Busch.

Busch made cryptic remarks about his future in NASCAR back in April, but all eyes turned to Truex after he made remarks about the uncertainty surrounding his own future. But for the last few  months, all eyes have been back on Busch.

While Truex’s situation was largely up to him, Busch’s situation was largely sponsorship dependent, with longtime sponsor M&M’s set to leave the #18 Toyota at the end of the 2022 season.

There had been a few promising developments on the sponsorship front for the 37-year-old Las Vegas, Nevada native and the team, but the most promising one fell through.

As a result, things were looking increasingly more challenging, and Busch indeed will not be back with Joe Gibbs Racing next year. He is set to join Richard Childress Racing and Chevrolet following a 15-year run with Toyota.

Busch admitted that he would be willing to take a pay cut to stay where he is, but he has also admitted that he had been in talks with other teams. Multiple teams offered him a contract for next year.

With Kyle Busch opting not to re-sign, what happens next?

It goes without saying that Joe Gibbs Racing would need to sign a replacement for Busch behind the wheel of the #18 Toyota.

There are several obvious candidates, including Kyle Busch Motorsports Truck Series driver John Hunter Nemechek and Joe Gibbs Racing Xfinity Series driver Ty Gibbs, who happens to be the grandson of team owner Joe Gibbs.

Ty has emerged as the favorite for the seat. But could Joe Gibbs Racing think outside of the box here, and if so, is Tyler Reddick a possibility?

Richard Childress Racing team owner Richard Childress confirmed earlier this summer that Reddick is under contract with the team through the 2023 season, as the team picked up his option for next year.

But what they did not do was extend his contract. After Reddick earned his first career victory at Road America in early July, he signed with 23XI Racing and Toyota for 2024.

Richard Childress Racing were shocked by the move, and they responded by saying that the timing could not have been worse.

Since then, there has been speculation that Reddick and the team might cut ties early following this announcement, even though an early signing such as this one is not unprecedented and Childress has reiterated multiple times that Reddick’s current contract runs through the end of next year.

However, Reddick remaining with the team could make the next year and a half awkward for all parties, since he is not only set to leave his team but his manufacturer, and with the addition of Busch now, that could make it even worse, as Richard Childress Racing run just two chartered entries.

Could Joe Gibbs Racing get creative and secure Reddick’s services for 2023?

It would surely take additional negotiating to make this move happen, but there are a number of reasons why it might work, aside from the obvious fact that Joe Gibbs Racing would be getting a proven Cup talent in the #18 Toyota for a year.

First of all, we know Richard Childress Racing aren’t exactly thrilled with Reddick signing with a rival organization and manufacturer in the middle of a season which is two years prior to his scheduled arrival at the new team.

So perhaps they wouldn’t be as reluctant to let him go, and perhaps he wouldn’t be as reluctant to walk away early.

Secondly, Joe Gibbs has said that he wants Ty to spend two full seasons in the Xfinity Series before being promoted to the Cup Series, as he wants to make sure that he doesn’t rush him to the sport’s top level.

That sentiment seems to have been cast aside as of late, but it hasn’t been formally redacted either.

While Gibbs did compete in the Xfinity Series in 2021, he competed part-time, running just 18 of the 33 races on the schedule, so a second full season would have to come in 2023.

Even with several recent Cup Series starts under his belt as the replacement for the injured Kurt Busch at 23XI Racing, he still lacks that second full season as of now.

But where would holding off on Ty leave Joe Gibbs Racing?

The obvious solution would be for Gibbs to replace Truex in 2024. However, Truex hasn’t necessarily settled on the 2023 season being his last, so that’s far from a guarantee.

Would the team really want to bring in somebody for just one year to replace Busch simply to keep Ty’s seat warm?

Ordinarily, no, but in this case, they could do it, and they could do it by doing the smart thing: signing the best possible driver for that seat.

Plus, Reddick joining Joe Gibbs Racing on a one-year deal for 2023 would not be your typical one-year deal, as he knows his future his secure with Toyota through at least 2025, having signed a multi-year deal with the Denny Hamlin and Michael Jordan-owned team.

So it would literally be a one-year deal and only a one-year deal, allowing Joe Gibbs Racing to effectively do what 23XI Racing did with Reddick: confirm Ty Gibbs for 2024, and do so a year early.

This would allow Joe Gibbs Racing to stick to their plan of not rushing him, all while guaranteeing him a promotion as initially planned.

Finally, this move would give Reddick an extra year with Toyota. While it would be strange for a driver of his caliber to join a top-tier NASCAR Cup Series team on just a one-year deal, an extra season with his new manufacturer could pay dividends for all involved in the long run as he ultimately looks to build up his career at 23XI Racing.

Of course, Ty Gibbs remains the clear favorite to replace Kyle Busch, as that is by far the simplest solution, and Tyler Reddick may truly be set to remain with Richard Childress Racing as his contract states, albeit in a non-chartered car. But all parties could benefit from this unconventional move in 2023 and beyond.