Formula 1: Max Verstappen controls his own fate in Japan

Max Verstappen is on the brink of clinching his second straight Formula 1 world championship, and he now has full control heading into Suzuka.

While the conclusion of the 2021 Formula 1 season ended in controversy, there’s no debating this one: Max Verstappen is on pace to defend his world championship in dominant fashion.

The Red Bull driver has won 11 races this year, and with five races left on the calendar, he still has a chance to surpass the record for the most wins in a Formula 1 season, shared by Michael Schumacher and Sebastian Vettel (13).

His commanding year-long performance, paired with teammate Sergio Perez’s best season to date, has put Red Bull 137 points ahead of Ferrari and within reach of the team’s first constructor championship since 2013.

Verstappen’s first opportunity to win his second title came in Singapore, where several different factors had to come into play for the Red Bull driver to clinch.

For Verstappen to become champion, he would have needed to score maximum points (26) — that is, a race win (25) and fastest lap (1) — while Charles Leclerc would have needed to finish eighth place (4 points) or lower, with Perez fourth (12) or lower.

However, things didn’t go to plan for Verstappen at the challenging street circuit, as Perez won the race and Leclerc finished in second place. Verstappen ended up in seventh after a forgettable qualifying session, followed by tough track conditions which led to the defending champ locking up and skidding into the turn seven runoff zone.

While Max Verstappen wasn’t able to clinch the title in Singapore, this weekend’s Japanese Grand Prix could see the Dutchman become back-to-back world champion.

Just three drivers are still in contention for the championship through 17 of 22 races on the schedule, with Verstappen, Perez and Leclerc still in the hunt. Verstappen is 104 points clear of Leclerc and 106 points clear of Perez.

In order to successfully defend his title and become two-time world champion, Verstappen needs to outscore Leclerc by eight points and outscore Perez by six points in Japan. Should the defending champion finish this weekend having scored the maximum points, he would eliminate both Perez and Leclerc and become the 2022 world champion.

In a scenario where Verstappen wins the race but doesn’t run the fastest lap, Leclerc could stay in contention with a second place finish in Suzuka. But should that happen, Perez’s championship hopes would be dashed.

It’s a welcome contrast for Verstappen compared to the 2021 season, when he quite literally had to fight Lewis Hamilton all the way to the final lap of the last race to win his first championship. He has also enjoyed success in Japan, having finished second twice and third one time in his career.

While Verstappen could wrap up the title this weekend, Red Bull still have some work to do to hold off Ferrari. Red Bull have been able to capitalize on the blunders of the Scuderia this season, but Ferrari’s strength over the rest of the field has kept them in contention toward the top of the constructor standings. However, it’s more likely that Ferrari could fall behind Mercedes than jump to the top.