NASCAR: Why another charter sale could spell disaster

If another charter changes hands ahead of the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series, it could lead to serious trouble for three teams moving forward.

Between the 2021 and 2022 NASCAR Cup Series seasons, a total of 10 of the 36 charters ended up with different teams. But for 2023, there is only one charter transaction that has been announced, and even that hasn’t been formally confirmed.

Richard Childress Racing announced last month that Joe Gibbs Racing’s Kyle Busch is set to replace Tyler Reddick behind the wheel of the #8 Chevrolet next year. However, they also stated that Reddick is still set to remain with the team until his contract expires and that he is set to do so in a third entry.

While specifics, namely the seller (or possibly even lender) weren’t confirmed, the team stated that a third charter for that third entry had been acquired.

But since then, it has emerged that Richard Childress Racing have been working on buying out Reddick’s contract, and he is set to join 23XI Racing next year. He had initially signed with 23XI Racing for 2024.

Does this indicate that Reddick is set to replace Kurt Busch behind the wheel of the #45 Toyota, with Busch’s future being uncertainty due to lingering health concerns, or will he join the team in a third car?

If he joins the team in a third car, have 23XI Racing secured a third charter, like Richard Childress Racing claimed to have done?

Even if they haven’t, any more charter transactions — whether that be Kaulig Racing securing a third, Trackhouse Racing Team securing a third, or JR Motorsports entering the Cup Series with one or two — in the near future could put three teams in jeopardy moving forward.

In the owner standings, there are five teams that stand out as true “back of the pack” teams. Those five teams all represent one of three different organizations: Spire Motorsports, Rick Ware Racing, and Live Fast Motorsports.

The #7 and #77 Spire Motorsports teams sit in 32nd and 33rd place, respectively, and are not within striking distance of moving any higher. The former sits 77 points out of the top 31, so the drop-off is massive, considering the fact that this team hasn’t scored more than 89 points over any six-race span in 2023.

Sitting in 34th and 35th place, respectively, are the #15 and #51 Rick Ware Racing teams, and sitting in 36th is the #78 Live Fast Motorsports team.

In the Cup Series, there is a performance standard among the 36 charter teams that allows NASCAR to repossess a team’s charter, should that team finish outside the top 33 in the standings for three consecutive seasons.

Two charters entered the 2022 season after two consecutive finishes outside of the top three, and while there are no resets when charters move to new teams, both are in the top 33 this year with new teams and are set to finish there, thus making them safe.

The charter that ran the #15 team, however, could potentially finish outside of the top 33 for the second straight year, which could put it at risk in 2023.

While nothing is impossible and stranger things have happened, it’s hard to imagine any one of the top 31 teams selling their charters to 23XI Racing or Richard Childress Racing, or really to anybody, at this point.

So one would have to believe that if either one of these two teams did indeed acquire a third charter for 2023, they would have bought or rented it from one of those bottom five teams.

If that’s the case, then the bottom five really becomes the bottom four. And with any more transactions, that bottom four becomes a clear bottom three.

And if there ends up being clear bottom three, it is inevitable that each of those teams are going to find themselves at risk of what the #15 team is slated to be at risk of: charter repossession.

Of course, if a team such as 23XI Racing or Richard Childress Racing only rented a charter for one year, then that charter is probably going to finish well inside the top 33, thus ensuring that it will enter 2024 without a streak of bottom three finishes when it returns to whatever its current team is.

But the point still stands: with any more charter transactions, these three organizations are at risk of having 34th place upside.

Could this potentially lead to some of these backmarker teams selling their charters quicker than they would like to, possibly at a lower cost than the insane dollar amounts we’ve been hearing about lately? Will it lead them to lend their charters like we’ve seen teams do in the past? At that point, why not just sell?

Once we find out what the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series charter lineup actually looks like, the picture will become clearer moving forward. Regardless, more charter transactions featuring the bottom five could spell disaster for the other backmarker organizations.