NASCAR playoffs destroy regular season myth

The idea of “getting hot at the right time” is vastly overused during the NASCAR Cup Series regular season, as the playoffs have shown.

The round of 8 field is set following the round of 12 finale at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval this past Sunday afternoon, and the field for the semifinal round of this year’s NASCAR Cup Series playoffs features several new faces.

While Hendrick Motorsports’ Chase Elliott is in the round of 8 for the sixth year in a row, Team Penske’s Joey Logano is in it for the fifth year in a row, Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin is in it for the fourth year in a row, and Team Penske’s Ryan Blaney is in it for the second year in a row, four other drivers are in it for the first time.

Those drivers are Trackhouse Racing Team’s Ross Chastain, Joe Gibbs Racing’s Christopher Bell, Hendrick Motorsports’ William Byron, and Stewart-Haas Racing’s Chase Briscoe.

A lot of those drivers had a good stretch of races throughout the season at some point, specifically perennial contenders Elliott, Logano, Hamlin, and Blaney. Chastain and Bell also stood out at times during the regular season.

But with all things considered, the idea of “getting hot at the right time” will never be true outside of the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs.

We heard it in July when Richard Childress Racing’s Tyler Reddick earned the first two wins of his career at Road America and the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course. He didn’t make it past the round of 16.

We heard it again in August when Stewart-Haas Racing’s Kevin Harvick ended a win drought of nearly two years with a two-race winning streak at Michigan International Speedway and Richmond Raceway. He also didn’t make it past the round of 16.

Then we heard it again when Hendrick Motorsports’ Kyle Larson ended a lengthy win drought in August at Watkins Glen International. The reigning champion was eliminated in the round of 12.

Meanwhile, Byron and Briscoe, two drivers who were used as prime examples as to why the current playoff format needs to be adjusted moving forward, are set to vie for spots in the Championship 4 over the next three weeks, having survived the round of 16 and round of 12 and made it into the round of 8 for the first time in their careers.

Byron entered the playoffs with just five top 10 finishes in 26 regular season races. He had just one top 10 finish in the regular season’s final 18 races, and that was only a ninth place finish, but he was locked into the playoffs with his two wins at Atlanta Motor Speedway and Martinsville Speedway. He opened up the playoffs with four consecutive top eight finishes.

Briscoe entered the playoffs with just four top 10 finishes, but he was locked in thanks to his win at Phoenix Raceway, which is where he would have a shot to win his first championship if he advances to the Championship 4.

He finished no higher than 13th place in the regular season’s final 12 races. That trend continued through the round of 16, but he avoided any disastrous outings and advanced to the round of 12, where he reeled off three top 10 finishes, his best finishes in more than four months. In the 21 races between his top 10 finishes, he finished in 20th or worse on 12 occasions.

While the playoff points earned by winning don’t hurt, it is really hard to claim that somebody is “getting hot at the right time” simply because they had some mid-summer success, and this season is yet another example of it.