NASCAR: Could Joe Gibbs Racing pull a surprise move?

Ty Gibbs is seen as a shoo-in to replace Kyle Busch at Joe Gibbs Racing for the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series season, but confirmation hasn’t been made.

Kyle Busch announced in mid-September that he would be ending a 15-year relationship with Joe Gibbs Racing and Toyota and joining Richard Childress Racing for the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series season, allowing him to reunite with Chevrolet.

The two-time champion’s announcement left the #18 Toyota without a confirmed driver for next year, but the obvious replacement was always seen as Ty Gibbs. Ty is the grandson of team owner Joe Gibbs who won the Xfinity Series championship in his first full season in the series this year.

When Busch confirmed his departure, Joe Gibbs Racing announced that they would be confirming their plans for the #18 car at a later date.

Nearly two months later, those plans still haven’t been confirmed.

While it may be worth mentioning that the team waited until the week the 2022 Xfinity Series season began to confirm Gibbs as the full-time driver of the #54 Toyota and therefore a long wait wouldn’t be all that surprising, could they ultimately pull off a surprising move and not promote him to their Cup Series team quite yet?

Back in late spring, Joe Gibbs Racing had made clear that their plan was to have Ty run two full seasons in the Xfinity Series before a Cup Series promotion, in order to avoid rushing him. He has run just one.

Things may have changed since then, considering the fact that Ty unexpectedly got the opportunity to compete in 15 Cup Series races this year for the Joe Gibbs Racing-affiliated 23XI Racing when Kurt Busch was sidelined with the head injury he suffered as a result of his qualifying crash at Pocono Raceway back in July.

His only missed start from that point forward came in the season finale at Phoenix Raceway, after his father Coy unexpectedly passed away the night before.

Additionally, when Joe Gibbs Racing talked about wanting Gibbs to run two full seasons in the Xfinity Series before a Cup Series promotion, they likely would have believed that Busch was going to stay for at least another season, even with the impending departure of longtime primary sponsor M&M’s.

A once promising sponsorship development ultimately fell through, however, and that ultimately led to Busch signing with Richard Childress Racing.

As a result, have plans changed?

Even at that point, Joe Gibbs Racing knew that an open seat was a possibility for 2023, so perhaps their plan for Ty to run two full Xfinity Series seasons remains the same.

Martin Truex Jr. had hinted that he was considering retirement after the 2022 season, and while he opted to return to the #19 Toyota for at least one more year, there was a chance that Joe Gibbs Racing could have had to replace him.

So is Ty Gibbs really a lock for the #18 Toyota in 2023, or will he run another season in the NASCAR Xfinity Series before moving to the Cup Series?

Could he potentially split the driving duties of the #18 Toyota with somebody such as John Hunter Nemechek, who has been linked to Joe Gibbs Racing’s Xfinity Series team himself?

Such a move would allow Gibbs to effectively do what he has done throughout 2022 and gain Cup Series experience while continuing to run full-time in the Xfinity Series, and it would also prevent Joe Gibbs Racing from needing to replace two drivers at the sport’s second highest level, even with Brandon Jones leaving for JR Motorsports.

Amid Kyle Busch Motorsports’ switch to Chevrolet, Nemechek is looking for a new ride with Toyota after spending the last two seasons with the team. He is a former full-time Cup Series driver himself, having competed for Front Row Motorsports in 2020 before making the decision to reunite with Toyota Racing Development by dropping back down to the Truck Series for 2021.

So perhaps Nemechek could be in contention to replace Busch next year, thus giving Gibbs another season in the Xfinity Series, or perhaps he and Gibbs could both compete full-time in the Xfinity Series and split the driving duties of the #18 Toyota in the Cup Series. Then if Truex moves on after 2023, both could compete full-time in 2024.

While Gibbs is still seen as the favorite to drive the #18 Toyota in 2023, there are other possibilities that should be considered before the team ultimately shore up their driver lineup.