NASCAR: Why hasn’t anybody clinched a playoff spot?

Despite the fact that two drivers have found victory lane this NASCAR Cup Series season, no playoff spots have officially been clinched.

JTG Daugherty Racing’s Ricky Stenhouse Jr. opened up the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series season by winning the Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway, and Kyle Busch followed it up by earning his first victory with Richard Childress Racing in just his second start with the team at Auto Club Speedway.

While the playoff format is widely considered a “win and in” format, neither one of these two drivers has officially secured a spot in this year’s postseason.

There are 16 playoff spots available, and those spots officially go to the regular season champion, whether he has won any races or not, and the 15 drivers who rank next highest in wins.

Because there are 26 regular season races and 16 playoff spots, winning a single NASCAR Cup Series race does not secure a driver a playoff spot this early in the year.

The only way to secure a playoff spot by winning this early in the year is by winning twice, as there can be no more than 13 multi-race winners before the playoffs. Even if the regular season champion ends up winless, this would only lead to 14 of the 16 spots being occupied.

If there are more than 16 regular season winners (or more than 15, if the regular season champion is winless), then the tiebreaker to determine which single-race winners get in and which don’t becomes points.

So if there are 17 winners (or 16, if the regular season champion is winless), then the lowest single-race winner in the standings doesn’t get in. If there are 18 winners (or 17, if regular season champion is winless), then the lowest two single-race winners in the standings don’t get in.

If there are 26 winners in 26 races (or 25, if the regular season champion is winless), then the lowest 10 single-race winners in the standings don’t get in. You get the picture.

With that in mind, Stenhouse and Busch haven’t officially clinched playoff spots, though it is unlikely that either one will end up out of the 16-driver playoff picture by the time the regular season ends.

We did almost see a scenario where a winner missed the postseason last year, as the regular season ended with 16 winners. In fact, 19 drivers found victory lane at some point during the opening season of the Gen 7 era, meaning that we very well could end up having to break a tie among single-race winners to set the postseason field.